Republican Wave? (user search)
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Author Topic: Republican Wave?  (Read 4420 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,755
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« on: October 31, 2014, 09:08:33 AM »

2010 was probably the last wave election for a while. After that, it's probably just small wins and solid-but-not-wave wins from here on out. The Democrats are favored in the electoral college, but I doubt they'll get another 2008 level win, while Republicans will be strained to repeat 2004 levels of support.


If the GOP net 4 seats, then Dems will get them right back in 2016, NH,Pa,WI, IL with a conjunction of OH, Va, CO, NV presidential wins for 300 electoral vote.will be enough.to carry house.

But for now, a status quo election.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,755
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2014, 08:03:27 AM »

 The next time they have a big wave, the Democrats need to be ready to do in CO/NM/NV/VA/NH what the Republicans have now done in WV/KY/TN/AR/LA: sweep the legislatures, win by double digits statewide and take them off the table for good.  They can't let Republicans becotme entrenched in 20-25 states when they only have 5-10 of their own (CA still only gets 2 senators).
[/quote]

Yes, it was a wave, and the G O P won on its own turf, not a realignment election, and it had more to do with Christie testing the political waters. But, we are already living under sequester cuts and G O P budgets and 90%.of Congress will look same.

As for 2016, G O P will end their unity and turn to the primaries. We must find a way next to translate our prez victory, should Clinton win to midterm gains, since the G O P govs will be term limited.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,755
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2014, 11:06:40 AM »

The next time they have a big wave, the Democrats need to be ready to do in CO/NM/NV/VA/NH what the Republicans have now done in WV/KY/TN/AR/LA: sweep the legislatures, win by double digits statewide and take them off the table for good.  They can't let Republicans becotme entrenched in 20-25 states when they only have 5-10 of their own (CA still only gets 2 senators).

Yes, it was a wave, and the G O P won on its own turf, not a realignment election, and it had more to do with Christie testing the political waters. But, we are already living under sequester cuts and G O P budgets and 90%.of Congress will look same.

As for 2016, G O P will end their unity

 and turn to the primaries. We must find a way next to translate our prez victory, should Clinton win to midterm gains, since the G O P govs will be term limited.

THEY'RE CALLED ARTICLES AND CONJUNCTIONS. USE THEM
[/quote]


We blew the 2014 election with Obama, but 2016 wont have Obama to kick around anymore.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,755
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2014, 04:18:52 PM »

This was the last favorable map for G O P triumph.

We should net about 15 house seats and 4 senate seats should CO, NV, NH, PA follow the 272 firewall, for Hilary.
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