CO-PPP: TIED RACE

[krazen1211]

Too bad the actual electorate shows Republicans soaring to the mailboxes.

[rob in cal]

If it wasn't for the early vote numbers I'd feel better about this if I was rooting for Udall.  If in fact its a real close race I would think that the Dems would be closing the gap in the daily mail in ballots but they haven't so far very much, but of course indy's could be breaking to Udall in big amounts.
  The PPP poll only lists Udall and Gardner, not Shogun, and clearly he's getting votes as well.

[Lurker]

This thread demonstrates why Atlas is so horrendous in the leadup to an election.

Suffolk shows this as a 6 point lead for Gardner, Quinnipaic shows it as 7, Rasmussen shows it at 6, yet we are to believe only this one. It's unscientific to think that way.

It's not necessarily scientific to just purely average the public polls, particularly in a midterm election where the polling tends to be less reliable.  I'm not going to argue that Udall is favored, but this race should be seen as a complete tossup.

No, it should not be seen as a tossup. Looking at the last ten polls, Gardner has lead in nine of them. Yes, there have been far bigger upsets than Udall winning here, but he is very clearly the underdog.

[Mehmentum]

I'm guessing PPP and Quinnipiac's polls are outliers in opposite directions.  I think the race is at a 3 point Gardner lead or so.

[Matty]

I'm guessing PPP and Quinnipiac's polls are outliers in opposite directions.  I think the race is at a 3 point Gardner lead or so.

Good post. I personally think Gardner is ahead by around 2.5.

[Gass3268]

I'm guessing PPP and Quinnipiac's polls are outliers in opposite directions.  I think the race is at a 3 point Gardner lead or so.

Good post. I personally think Gardner is ahead by around 2.5.

I can live with that.

[Recalcuate]

48-48

http://bit.ly/10BLOSI

This post should have a giant (D) next to it. This is not a PPP Poll, it's a PPP poll for the League of Conservation Voters, a left-leaning group. Let's at least attempt to be intellectually honest here.

PPP will probably release their own Colorado poll at some point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is hope after all!

[RogueBeaver]

I think Udall wins by a 2010-ish margin or slightly less. I'm happy to be proven wrong, but that's my final prediction.

[bedstuy]

This thread demonstrates why Atlas is so horrendous in the leadup to an election.

Suffolk shows this as a 6 point lead for Gardner, Quinnipaic shows it as 7, Rasmussen shows it at 6, yet we are to believe only this one. It's unscientific to think that way.

It's not necessarily scientific to just purely average the public polls, particularly in a midterm election where the polling tends to be less reliable.  I'm not going to argue that Udall is favored, but this race should be seen as a complete tossup.

No, it should not be seen as a tossup. Looking at the last ten polls, Gardner has lead in nine of them. Yes, there have been far bigger upsets than Udall winning here, but he is very clearly the underdog.

That's how I see it.  Something tells me that Udall and Braley both win, but unfortunately the Republicans still take the Senate with 51 seats.  I just trust the shifting demographics of Colorado, the high percentage of young voters and the real trend of polling underestimating Democrats for two straight cycles.  If you think about it, Democrats have quite a win streak in key statewide elections in Colorado going back to 2004.  My gut tells me that trend continues.

[backtored]

Denver Post/SUSA have Gardner up two today.

[DrScholl]

It's Ken Buck all over again. Yes, I said Buck.

[Recalcuate]

Too bad the actual electorate shows Republicans soaring to the mailboxes.

But PPP/League of Conservation Voters (D) suggests it will end up R+1. Remember, remember, remember the Buck.

[Matty]

Yea, that stat about Gardner only leading early voters by 1 is garbage, and the actual results prove it.

[Smash255]

Yea, that stat about Gardner only leading early voters by 1 is garbage, and the actual results prove it.

Not saying I agree with Gardner+1 among early voters, but Colorado registered Republicans tend to vote D more than registered Democrats vote Republican, and/or Unaffiliated voters lean Democratic. 

[Mr. Reactionary]

Too bad the actual electorate shows Republicans soaring to the mailboxes.

But PPP/League of Conservation Voters (D) suggests it will end up R+1. Remember, remember, remember the Buck.

Speaking of Ken Buck, I wonder if he will remain as big of a punching bag here once he's in Congress. Congressman Ken Buck ... lolz.

[RR1997]

It looks like Udall will win this race relatively comfortably.

If a poll shows a tie in Colorado, the Democratic Party candidate is probably leading by 2-3 percentage points. It looks like Cory Gardner is the new Ken Buck.

This poll ruined my day.

[Eraserhead]

So between this one and SUSA it looks like Udall might actually still have a (small) chance at surviving. That's cool.

[Keystone Phil]

Haha. It's a client poll. Moving on...

[KCDem]

It looks like Udall will win this race relatively comfortably.

If a poll shows a tie in Colorado, the Democratic Party candidate is probably leading by 2-3 percentage points. It looks like Cory Gardner is the new Ken Buck.

This poll ruined my day.

Finally, a Republican coming down to earth and embracing reality!

[RR1997]

Actually this was a poll done for LCV, and they excluded third party candidates, so Gardner still has a chance.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Too bad the actual electorate shows Republicans soaring to the mailboxes.

But PPP/League of Conservation Voters (D) suggests it will end up R+1. Remember, remember, remember the Buck.

Speaking of Ken Buck, I wonder if he will remain as big of a punching bag here once he's in Congress. Congressman Ken Buck ... lolz.

That's the misfortune of whomever elected him.

[Dixie Reborn]

This poll ruined my day.

[Niemeyerite]

I think Udall wins by a 2010-ish margin or slightly less. I'm happy to be proven wrong, but that's my final prediction.

It looks like Udall will win this race relatively comfortably.

If a poll shows a tie in Colorado, the Democratic Party candidate is probably leading by 2-3 percentage points. It looks like Cory Gardner is the new Ken Buck.

This poll ruined my day.

Republicans predicting an Udall win... BUT KEN BUCK!

[Recalcuate]

Actually this was a poll done for LCV, and they excluded third party candidates, so Gardner still has a chance.

The third-party candidate got Bucked in this poll. Utterly and completely Bucked.