The Official Senate Models Thread

[IceSpear]

So now that we're in the home stretch, I imagine people are going to start paying more attention to these. This thread can be where we post updates for them. Current odds each model has of the GOP winning the Senate:

FiveThirtyEight: 63%
The Upshot: 68%
Election Lab: 92%
HuffPost: 62%
PEC: 55% +/-15%

[GaussLaw]

So now that we're in the home stretch, I imagine people are going to start paying more attention to these. This thread can be where we post updates for them. Current odds each model has of the GOP winning the Senate:

FiveThirtyEight: 63%
The Upshot: 68%
Election Lab: 92%
PEC: 45% +/-15%

PEC is actually 55 +/- 15% with respect to the GOP's odds of winning the Senate.  45% was the Dem's/Indy's odds of controlling Senate.
http://election.princeton.edu/

[IceSpear]

So now that we're in the home stretch, I imagine people are going to start paying more attention to these. This thread can be where we post updates for them. Current odds each model has of the GOP winning the Senate:

FiveThirtyEight: 63%
The Upshot: 68%
Election Lab: 92%
PEC: 45% +/-15%

PEC is actually 55 +/- 15% with respect to the GOP's odds of winning the Senate.  45% was the Dem's/Indy's odds of controlling Senate.
http://election.princeton.edu/

[Nichlemn]

Not a model, but Republicans are at 86% on NZ's Intrade.

Hmm, that seems a bit high. Maybe I'll short it.

[Senator Cris]

Don't forget the HuffPost model: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook
63% R

[JRP1994]

270towin: 83.5%

http://www.270towin.com/2014-senate-election-simulation/

[Miles]

The WaPo model has Republicans at 93%, but just flipped GA to 57% chance of a D win.

Leo (the NYT/Upshot model) put Republicans at 70% yesterday.

[IceSpear]

October 28

FiveThirtyEight: 62%
The Upshot: 65%
Election Lab: 93%
HuffPost: 63%
PEC: 50% +/-15%

[IceSpear]

October 31

FiveThirtyEight: 68%
The Upshot: 69%
Election Lab: 95%
HuffPost: 68%
PEC: 60% +/-15%

Some context: At this point in 2012, Obama had an 81% chance on FiveThirtyEight.

[Miles]

RRH just put out (what looks like) its final ratings:

[IceSpear]

Funnily enough, I checked FiveThirtyEight earlier today, and they actually had Dems chances improving. Then came the stake through the heart also known as Selzer...

November 1

FiveThirtyEight: 72%
The Upshot: 70%
Election Lab: 94%
HuffPost: 73%
PEC: 60% +/-15%

[ElectionsGuy]

Upshot

Overall: 69% R
Kentucky: 93% R
Arkansas: 89% R
Colorado: 81% R
Louisiana: 81% R
Iowa: 69% R
Alaska: 67% R
Georgia: 58% R
Kansas: 54% I
North Carolina: 73% D
New Hampshire: 82% D

538

Overall: 73% R
Arkansas: 94% R
Louisiana: 79% R
Colorado: 74% R
Alaska: 71% R
Iowa: 71% R
Georgia: 68% R
Kansas: 54% I
North Carolina: 71% D
New Hampshire: 87% D

Huffpost

Overall: 75% R
Arkansas: 85% R
Kentucky: 82% R
Louisiana: 72% R
Georgia: 70% R
Alaska: 62% R
Colorado: 60% R
Iowa: 59% R
Kansas: 50/50
North Carolina: 55% D
New Hampshire: 62% D

[IceSpear]

Looks like the final projections are here, unless a few late polls trickle in on election day.

November 4

FiveThirtyEight: 76%
The Upshot: 70%
Election Lab: 97%
HuffPost: 79%
PEC: 65% +/-15%

The bad news, we're distinct underdogs. The good news, we still have a much better chance than Romney's pathetic 9% chance on the last day of 2012.