Election Projection

[Free Bird]

Does anybody trust it? My problem is that they are super over reactive to every poll. One liberal poll showing Begich up that doesn't even change the average and Alaska is suddenly a Dem hold. Are you kidding me?

[Boston Bread]

The polls showing Begich up aren't "liberal". Outliers, sure, but the one liberal poll had it tied. Plus, while you might not agree with their methodology, (I don't either) once they set it up they aren't going to change it because one poll looks fishy. They were a little r-leaning in 2012 compared to other prognosticators (aka a lot more R-friendly then the results), but do a good job of looking non-partisan like RCP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Does anybody trust it? My problem is that they are super over reactive to every poll. One liberal poll showing Begich up that doesn't even change the average and Alaska is suddenly a Dem hold. Are you kidding me?

You've got stop with this stuff. You're too young.

[Free Bird]

I though Ivan Moore was a proven left leaner?

[KCDem]

I though Ivan Moore was a proven left leaner?

You thought wrong. Big surprise

[Smash255]

Does anybody trust it? My problem is that they are super over reactive to every poll. One liberal poll showing Begich up that doesn't even change the average and Alaska is suddenly a Dem hold. Are you kidding me?

I actually found this site through election projection.  He isn't always right, but his projections seem to be fair (he is a conservative btw).  As far as not changing the average, it actually does.  As you get closer to the election, he changes the period from last 30 days to last 14 days in the polls that he uses.  Since there has been limited Alaska polling in the last couple weeks, the Begich +6, did change the average  Barring any other polls coming out of Alaska between now and then, his next update which should be shortly will have Alaska going back to the GOP once the Rasmussen poll which just came out is added.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is too close to call and La and Ga will go into OT. Also, it is too early to call. AK, it will take a long time to count ballots, Dems are still in this, despite polls.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I actually found this site through election projection. 

So did I. Though unfortunately my lack of internet access at home until last Thursday has precluded keeping up with that site.

[Free Bird]

IA is too close to call and La and Ga will go into OT. Also, it is too early to call. AK, it will take a long time to count ballots, Dems are still in this, despite polls.

Okay Dick Morris

[The Other Castro]

IA is too close to call and La and Ga will go into OT. Also, it is too early to call. AK, it will take a long time to count ballots, Dems are still in this, despite polls.

Okay Dick Morris

A Dick Morris-esque prediction would involve an easy sweep of every competitive race plus Kentucky, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, and Mississippi

[IceSpear]

Election Projection now has Malloy winning. RIP FreedomHawk.

[Free Bird]

Election Projection now has Malloy winning. RIP FreedomHawk.

While the aggregate still has Foley up. TF

[Smash255]

Election Projection now has Malloy winning. RIP FreedomHawk.

While the aggregate still has Foley up. TF

This close to Election Day, EP only uses the polls within the last two weeks of the last poll that was out.   That means with the PPP poll ending 11/1, only polls ending 10/18 are used.  Rasmussen's Foley +7 poll ended 10/16.  With that poll out of the mix, the aggregate has Malloy ahead. 

[Bojack Horseman]

The guy who runs it is a total hack, but he had the 2012 Presidential election correctly predicted in August.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His prediction isnt based on two runoff scenarios in La or Ga, and I think polls are undercutting Begich, we shall see, but a Rassy poll on AK, isnt the best predictor on Begich.