Election Projection (user search)
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Author Topic: Election Projection  (Read 1699 times)
Smash255
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Posts: 15,454


« on: October 31, 2014, 01:19:58 PM »

Does anybody trust it? My problem is that they are super over reactive to every poll. One liberal poll showing Begich up that doesn't even change the average and Alaska is suddenly a Dem hold. Are you kidding me?

I actually found this site through election projection.  He isn't always right, but his projections seem to be fair (he is a conservative btw).  As far as not changing the average, it actually does.  As you get closer to the election, he changes the period from last 30 days to last 14 days in the polls that he uses.  Since there has been limited Alaska polling in the last couple weeks, the Begich +6, did change the average  Barring any other polls coming out of Alaska between now and then, his next update which should be shortly will have Alaska going back to the GOP once the Rasmussen poll which just came out is added.
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Smash255
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Posts: 15,454


« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2014, 11:11:50 PM »

Election Projection now has Malloy winning. RIP FreedomHawk.

While the aggregate still has Foley up. TF

This close to Election Day, EP only uses the polls within the last two weeks of the last poll that was out.   That means with the PPP poll ending 11/1, only polls ending 10/18 are used.  Rasmussen's Foley +7 poll ended 10/16.  With that poll out of the mix, the aggregate has Malloy ahead. 
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