Best county for Howie Hawkins (G) in New York?
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  Best county for Howie Hawkins (G) in New York?
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Author Topic: Best county for Howie Hawkins (G) in New York?  (Read 1584 times)
Eraserhead
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« on: October 31, 2014, 05:38:01 AM »

I'm thinking Ulster.
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Vega
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2014, 09:34:35 AM »

Yeah, I'm inclined to think Ulster too. It all depends on how many Teachout voters he get's.
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Smash255
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2014, 12:35:45 PM »

Yeah, I'm inclined to think Ulster too. It all depends on how many Teachout voters he get's.

Tompkins will edge out Ulster
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2014, 01:24:15 PM »

The Bronx or Manhattan- there are a lot of Liberals in those two counties who are huge De Blasio Supporters and are unhappy with Cuomo.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2014, 01:35:24 PM »

The Bronx or Manhattan- there are a lot of Liberals in those two counties who are huge De Blasio Supporters and are unhappy with Cuomo.

The Bronx was one of Cuomo's best counties in the primaries. He won like 80% of the vote there...
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2014, 04:03:43 PM »

The Bronx or Manhattan- there are a lot of Liberals in those two counties who are huge De Blasio Supporters and are unhappy with Cuomo.

The Bronx was one of Cuomo's best counties in the primaries. He won like 80% of the vote there...

That's still 10-20% who could end up voting for Hawkins, which is far more than most counties in New York.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2014, 05:29:48 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2014, 05:35:37 PM by cinyc »

The Bronx or Manhattan- there are a lot of Liberals in those two counties who are huge De Blasio Supporters and are unhappy with Cuomo.

The Bronx was one of Cuomo's best counties in the primaries. He won like 80% of the vote there...

That's still 10-20% who could end up voting for Hawkins, which is far more than most counties in New York.

That's not going to happen.  The Siena CD and State Senate polling has shown that there is more appetite for Hawkins Upstate than Downstate, and Hawkins is especially strong in the Albany area.  Hawkins got .42% of the vote in the Bronx in 2010.  He hit 3.55% in Tompkins County, 3.06% in Albany County and 2.63% in Ulster County in 2010.

The answer is one of those three counties.  I'm going to say Hawkins does best in Albany County because of government workers voting against Cuomo.  He'll likely get the most votes there of any county, even if the percentage is higher in Tompkins.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2014, 05:45:52 PM »

The Bronx or Manhattan- there are a lot of Liberals in those two counties who are huge De Blasio Supporters and are unhappy with Cuomo.

The Bronx was one of Cuomo's best counties in the primaries. He won like 80% of the vote there...

That's still 10-20% who could end up voting for Hawkins, which is far more than most counties in New York.

That's not going to happen.  The Siena CD and State Senate polling has shown that there is more appetite for Hawkins Upstate than Downstate, and Hawkins is especially strong in the Albany area.  Hawkins got .42% of the vote in the Bronx in 2010.  He hit 3.55% in Tompkins County, 3.06% in Albany County and 2.63% in Ulster County in 2010.

The answer is one of those three counties.  I'm going to say Hawkins does best in Albany County because of government workers voting against Cuomo.  He'll likely get the most votes there of any county, even if the percentage is higher in Tompkins.

He'll likely get the most absolute # of votes in New York or Kings, just because they're so much larger.  As a percentage, yes it'll be one of Tompkins/Ulster/Albany.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2014, 05:51:35 PM »

He'll likely get the most absolute # of votes in New York or Kings, just because they're so much larger.  As a percentage, yes it'll be one of Tompkins/Ulster/Albany.

It was pretty close in 2010.  I think he's going to do much better in Albany County than in NYC this time.  Maybe even 5x better.  The lesser percentage in New York or Kings might not be enough to make up the raw vote from Albany, despite their size.  Unless the NYS Democratic Committee's creepy "we're watching if you come out to vote" mailing backfires to cause NYC residents to vote against Cuomo for Hawkins, too.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2014, 06:12:27 PM »

Clarification: I want to know where you think he'll get his highest % of the vote (which may or may not be where he'll get his highest number of absolute votes).
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2014, 06:38:50 PM »

Clarification: I want to know where you think he'll get his highest % of the vote (which may or may not be where he'll get his highest number of absolute votes).

I think it's likely to be Albany for both, though it could be Tompkins for percentage and New York for absolute votes.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2014, 05:45:57 PM »

Onondaga is a good bet. From following Hawkins on Twitter and Facebook it seems like what organization he has is mostly concentrated in Syracuse as well (a lot of invitations to Syracuse phone-banking and such). He's also been a perennial candidate for local office there, so his name recognition is probably somewhat higher.
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cinyc
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2014, 06:54:24 PM »

The argument against Onondaga County being Hawkins' best is that Cuomo actually won it in the primary, unlike Tompkins, Ulster, Albany or a host of other Upstate counties.  If Teachout's votes translate into Hawkins votes, you'd expect him to do better where Teachout won.  Plus, Onondaga is more Republican than Tompkins or Albany, givng Astorino a bigger base.  We'll have to see if the hometown advantage outweighs the other factors.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2014, 07:24:01 PM »

Clarification: I want to know where you think he'll get his highest % of the vote (which may or may not be where he'll get his highest number of absolute votes).

I think it's likely to be Albany for both, though it could be Tompkins for percentage and New York for absolute votes.

I think maybe Columbia County myself. I think all the Dems I know will be voting for Hawkins.
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KCDem
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2014, 09:11:50 PM »

How badly does Cuomo perform in Tompkins? Could he lose it to a plurality by Astorino?
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2014, 09:15:55 PM »

Tompkins.

How badly does Cuomo perform in Tompkins? Could he lose it to a plurality by Astorino?

No.
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cinyc
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2014, 09:16:01 PM »

It's possible that Hawkins was near his threshold in Onondaga in 2010, but it's not as if his statewide name recognition has improved that much, his higher share in the polls notwithstanding. I suspect that he's still much better known in the Syracuse area than he is elsewhere.

It'll be interesting to see how closely Cuomo's general election performance mirrors his share of the primary vote. Depending on how predictive it is, Torie might be right: Teachout won nearly 80% of the vote in Columbia. But turnout was light enough, and consisted of a such a narrow portion of the electorate, that I expect the county-by-county variation to be different, even if the broader trends hold.

FWIW, Siena's CD polling has Hawkins at about 14.25% of the Onondaga portion of NY-24 (18% in Syracuse and 13% in the rest of Onondaga) and 18% in the Montgomery/Schoharie/Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer portion of NY-19.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2014, 02:00:38 PM »

How badly does Cuomo perform in Tompkins? Could he lose it to a plurality by Astorino?

Lol, some gun nut social conservative, pro-fracking nut job??  Wouldn't be surpised if Hawkins does better than Astorino in Tompkins.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2014, 10:39:42 PM »

The correct answer is Tompkins (16.2%), followed by Albany (12.9%), Ulster (11.0%) and Columbia (11.0%).  Hawkins didn't even crack 10% in Onondaga (8.1%).

Hawkins got the most raw votes in New York County (Manhattan), followed by Kings (Brooklyn).
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