Best county for Howie Hawkins (G) in New York?

[cinyc]

The Bronx or Manhattan- there are a lot of Liberals in those two counties who are huge De Blasio Supporters and are unhappy with Cuomo.

The Bronx was one of Cuomo's best counties in the primaries. He won like 80% of the vote there...

That's still 10-20% who could end up voting for Hawkins, which is far more than most counties in New York.

That's not going to happen.  The Siena CD and State Senate polling has shown that there is more appetite for Hawkins Upstate than Downstate, and Hawkins is especially strong in the Albany area.  Hawkins got .42% of the vote in the Bronx in 2010.  He hit 3.55% in Tompkins County, 3.06% in Albany County and 2.63% in Ulster County in 2010.

The answer is one of those three counties.  I'm going to say Hawkins does best in Albany County because of government workers voting against Cuomo.  He'll likely get the most votes there of any county, even if the percentage is higher in Tompkins.

[cinyc]

He'll likely get the most absolute # of votes in New York or Kings, just because they're so much larger.  As a percentage, yes it'll be one of Tompkins/Ulster/Albany.

It was pretty close in 2010.  I think he's going to do much better in Albany County than in NYC this time.  Maybe even 5x better.  The lesser percentage in New York or Kings might not be enough to make up the raw vote from Albany, despite their size.  Unless the NYS Democratic Committee's creepy "we're watching if you come out to vote" mailing backfires to cause NYC residents to vote against Cuomo for Hawkins, too.

[cinyc]

Clarification: I want to know where you think he'll get his highest % of the vote (which may or may not be where he'll get his highest number of absolute votes).

I think it's likely to be Albany for both, though it could be Tompkins for percentage and New York for absolute votes.

[cinyc]

The argument against Onondaga County being Hawkins' best is that Cuomo actually won it in the primary, unlike Tompkins, Ulster, Albany or a host of other Upstate counties.  If Teachout's votes translate into Hawkins votes, you'd expect him to do better where Teachout won.  Plus, Onondaga is more Republican than Tompkins or Albany, givng Astorino a bigger base.  We'll have to see if the hometown advantage outweighs the other factors.

[cinyc]

It's possible that Hawkins was near his threshold in Onondaga in 2010, but it's not as if his statewide name recognition has improved that much, his higher share in the polls notwithstanding. I suspect that he's still much better known in the Syracuse area than he is elsewhere.

It'll be interesting to see how closely Cuomo's general election performance mirrors his share of the primary vote. Depending on how predictive it is, Torie might be right: Teachout won nearly 80% of the vote in Columbia. But turnout was light enough, and consisted of a such a narrow portion of the electorate, that I expect the county-by-county variation to be different, even if the broader trends hold.

FWIW, Siena's CD polling has Hawkins at about 14.25% of the Onondaga portion of NY-24 (18% in Syracuse and 13% in the rest of Onondaga) and 18% in the Montgomery/Schoharie/Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer portion of NY-19.

[cinyc]

The correct answer is Tompkins (16.2%), followed by Albany (12.9%), Ulster (11.0%) and Columbia (11.0%).  Hawkins didn't even crack 10% in Onondaga (8.1%).

Hawkins got the most raw votes in New York County (Manhattan), followed by Kings (Brooklyn).