The Bronx or Manhattan- there are a lot of Liberals in those two counties who are huge De Blasio Supporters and are unhappy with Cuomo.
The Bronx was one of Cuomo's best counties in the primaries. He won like 80% of the vote there...
That's still 10-20% who could end up voting for Hawkins, which is far more than most counties in New York.
That's not going to happen. The Siena CD and State Senate polling has shown that there is more appetite for Hawkins Upstate than Downstate, and Hawkins is especially strong in the Albany area. Hawkins got .42% of the vote in the Bronx in 2010. He hit 3.55% in Tompkins County, 3.06% in Albany County and 2.63% in Ulster County in 2010.
The answer is one of those three counties. I'm going to say Hawkins does best in Albany County because of government workers voting against Cuomo. He'll likely get the most votes there of any county, even if the percentage is higher in Tompkins.
He'll likely get the most absolute # of votes in New York or Kings, just because they're
so much larger. As a percentage, yes it'll be one of Tompkins/Ulster/Albany.
