Arkansas, a Demographic Challenge for Democrats

[illegaloperation]

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Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/23/upshot/arkansas-a-demographic-challenge-for-democrats.html?abt=0002&abg=1

[DS0816]

Arkansas voted for a string of losing Democrats in presidential years won by Republicans. I listed them in another thread. So, just start from 1860.

With the map realigned and counter-realigned, and the two major parties having done the same, Arkansas is poised to vote for a string of losing Republicans in presidential years won by Democrats. That's certainly the case already with Barack Obama, the first Democrat elected without carriage of Arkansas; and, if we don't get a good 40-state landslide in some time, that will definitely be the case with the next prevailing Democrat.

I do not look to Arkansas as a state which influences the national outcome.

[DS0816]

By the way: None of this mentions that plenty of the white voters would have delivered Democratic pickups of Arkansas and West Virginia to Hillary Clinton in 2008. In West Virginia, we know about the racism that was blatant in that state. In Arkansas, women reduced 49 percent Democratic support for a 2004 John Kerry down to 39 percent support for a 2008 Barack Obama. (Men stayed at 40 percent in 2008, as they performed in 2004.) The women in Arkansas may have been the "PUMAs" we heard so much about during Election 2008. So, if we're not getting a 40-state landslide for a winning Democrat, Republicans are welcome to carrying these two states.

[Rockefeller GOP]

By the way: None of this mentions that plenty of the white voters would have delivered Democratic pickups of Arkansas and West Virginia to Hillary Clinton in 2008. In West Virginia, we know about the racism that was blatant in that state. In Arkansas, women reduced 49 percent Democratic support for a 2004 John Kerry down to 39 percent support for a 2008 Barack Obama. (Men stayed at 40 percent in 2008, as they performed in 2004.) The women in Arkansas may have been the "PUMAs" we heard so much about during Election 2008. So, if we're not getting a 40-state landslide for a winning Democrat, Republicans are welcome to carrying these two states.

Why don't you have a red avatar?

As for the OP, it touches on an often forgotten truth: especially when it comes to non-Presidential elections, this idea that a Democrat-Republican divide is synonymous with a cosmopolitan-rural divide is just frankly simplistic.  Rural Arkansans have been more Democratic than suburban Arkansans for decades.

[ElectionsGuy]

Well, we learned that Arkansas is a solid red state. They now have 2 Republican Senators, 4/4 Republican Representatives, voted Republican for president in the past 4 elections, Republicans pickup up all the statewide executives (the ones that are electable), and Republicans now control the state legislature by large majorities (64-36 in the House and 24-11 in the Senate).

So, do Democrats have a good chance at 2016?

[DS0816]

Well, we learned that Arkansas is a solid red state. They now have 2 Republican Senators, 4/4 Republican Representatives, voted Republican for president in the past 4 elections, Republicans pickup up all the statewide executives (the ones that are electable), and Republicans now control the state legislature by large majorities (64-36 in the House and 24-11 in the Senate).

So, do Democrats have a good chance at 2016?

This comes a few short years after Election 2008, when three of the four congressional seats, both U.S. Senate seats, and the governorship were in the Democratic column. After the midterm congressional elections of 2014, they are Republican sweeps.

[Nichlemn]

Well, we learned that Arkansas is a solid red state. They now have 2 Republican Senators, 4/4 Republican Representatives, voted Republican for president in the past 4 elections, Republicans pickup up all the statewide executives (the ones that are electable), and Republicans now control the state legislature by large majorities (64-36 in the House and 24-11 in the Senate).

So, do Democrats have a good chance at 2016?

Only if Clinton ran explicitly as an Arkansan. But odds are she'll be perceived as a New York Democrat and do not much better than how you'd expect a New York Democrat to do in Arkansas.

[Frodo]

I don't understand why Arkansas doesn't have at least one African-American majority congressional district (probably would be concentrated in the Arkansas Delta) like other southern states.  Isn't it under the sway of the Voting Rights Act which mandates that?

[Gass3268]

I don't understand why Arkansas doesn't have at least one African-American majority congressional district (probably would be concentrated in the Arkansas Delta) like other southern states.  Isn't it under the sway of the Voting Rights Act which mandates that?

Even if you connect the Arkansas Delta up to Little Rock though Pine Bluff, you only get a district that is 36.4% African-America. Possibly enough for an opportunity of an American-American Rep, but there is really no way for a majority district.

[Frodo]

I don't understand why Arkansas doesn't have at least one African-American majority congressional district (probably would be concentrated in the Arkansas Delta) like other southern states.  Isn't it under the sway of the Voting Rights Act which mandates that?

Even if you connect the Arkansas Delta up to Little Rock though Pine Bluff, you only get a district that is 36.4% African-America. Possibly enough for an opportunity of an American-American Rep, but there is really no way for a majority district.

Are there not enough liberal whites in the area to make up the difference? 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I guess Arkansas is an odd state where the elderly dying off benefits the Republicans. The old school rural dixiecrats who loved Carter and Clinton are now being replaced by Tea Party wackos.

[Gass3268]

I don't understand why Arkansas doesn't have at least one African-American majority congressional district (probably would be concentrated in the Arkansas Delta) like other southern states.  Isn't it under the sway of the Voting Rights Act which mandates that?

Even if you connect the Arkansas Delta up to Little Rock though Pine Bluff, you only get a district that is 36.4% African-America. Possibly enough for an opportunity of an American-American Rep, but there is really no way for a majority district.

Are there not enough liberal whites in the area to make up the difference? 

Obama won it by like 55% in 2008, but because the AA number is so low there is no legal need to a VRA district.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't understand why Arkansas doesn't have at least one African-American majority congressional district (probably would be concentrated in the Arkansas Delta) like other southern states.  Isn't it under the sway of the Voting Rights Act which mandates that?

Even if you connect the Arkansas Delta up to Little Rock though Pine Bluff, you only get a district that is 36.4% African-America. Possibly enough for an opportunity of an American-American Rep, but there is really no way for a majority district.

Are there not enough liberal whites in the area to make up the difference? 

This is the best I could do for a Democratic district:



Its 57% Obama, but only 38% black. So there really can't be a use for the VRA in Arkansas.

[TDAS04]

I don't understand why Arkansas doesn't have at least one African-American majority congressional district (probably would be concentrated in the Arkansas Delta) like other southern states.  Isn't it under the sway of the Voting Rights Act which mandates that?

Only 4 representatives, just above 15% African-American, and no plausible way to draw an African-American-majority district.  It shouldn't be that surprising, considering that Tennessee (about as black as Arkansas) has 9 representatives but only 1 district that is majority African-American.  Also, Virginia is almost 20% black, but only 1 of its 11 congressional districts is predominantly African-American.