Is there any chance Landrieu breaks 50% on Nov. 4th?
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  Is there any chance Landrieu breaks 50% on Nov. 4th?
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Author Topic: Is there any chance Landrieu breaks 50% on Nov. 4th?  (Read 433 times)
Matty
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« on: October 31, 2014, 12:24:22 PM »

Most of the polls show here netting around 38-43%, but does she have any chance at avoiding a runoff?
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Smash255
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2014, 12:27:54 PM »

No, I would expect her to be around 45%, her ceiling is probably 47-48%
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2014, 12:30:04 PM »

No, I would expect her to be around 45%, her ceiling is probably 47-48%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2014, 12:33:47 PM »

Extremely unlikely.

She'd need ca. 30-35% of Whites and 90%+ from Blacks for that.

And Blacks would need to make up at least 30% of the electorate.

But she only has 25% support among Whites right now.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2014, 12:37:27 PM »

Extremely unlikely.

She'd need ca. 30-35% of Whites and 90%+ from Blacks for that.

And Blacks would need to make up at least 30% of the electorate.

But she only has 25% support among Whites right now.

Less than 1%... and that's only based on her past history.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2014, 01:03:34 PM »

Very unlikely.

The best case scenario for Landrieu is a strong showing for the GOP on election night where they get to 51 seats before the Louisiana runoff. 
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KCDem
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2014, 01:05:29 PM »

More possible than people here think, but less possible than I wish.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2014, 01:15:18 PM »

More possible than people here think, but less possible than I wish.
538 gave Landrieu a 6% chance of avoiding a runoff. Statistically possible, but unlikely.

Sourcing: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-hope-youre-not-itching-to-know-who-won/
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