2014 US Congressional Election Results

[rbt48]

It looks like AP will be posting results for the Louisiana runoff elections later today:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/LA_Page_1206.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

I think, from what I saw and inferred from the AP website, that they made election night (Nov 4) returns only available for those who paid for the (perhaps other news organizations).  It will be nice to have their returns available for these races in Louisiana!

[Miles]

^ We'll also be covering it at AoS. We mad several first calls on election night last month

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ We'll also be covering it at AoS. We made several first calls on election night last month

You guys got really lucky on VA - came very close to making a wrong call. It's probably best to base things off more than one county next time.

An Excellent rule of thumb with VA is that a republican needs both Loudoun and Prince William to win. Until very late in the night, Gillespie had both of these counties in his column (he eventually lost hold on PW) If one/both of them goes for the democrat, the democrat wins. This has held up during all VA pres./senate/governor races this century:

2000/2002/2004 - R wins both Loudoun and PW, R wins.
2006 - Allen wins PW, Webb wins Loudoun, Webb wins.
2001/2005/2008/2012/2013 - Dem wins both Loudoun and PW, Dem wins.
2009 - McDonnell wins both, McDonnell wins
2014 - Gillespie wins Loudoun, Warner wins PW, Warner wins.

------------------------------------------

The list of LA races is as follows:

District 1 Public Service Commissioner: Skrmetta (R) vs. Wright (R)
U.S. House District 5: Mayo (D) vs. Abraham (R)
U.S. House District 6: Edwards (D) vs. Graves (R)
U.S. Senate: Landrieu (D) vs. Cassidy (R)

Polls close at 9 PM EST.

No sign of a parish map from Politico yet, hopefully one will be posted at some point tomorrow. Also please note that Louisiana's count is really slow for the first hour or so.

[Miles]

^ For election night, they assigned us each a state, and I was one of the guys on the VA team

I was expecting it to be boring haha.

[Tender Branson]

States that have not yet published their official/certified results:

CA
KS
MT
NE
NM
NY
OH
TN

CA now has semi-official results (the final result is out on Dec. 12)

KS now has final results.

[Tender Branson]

On the AZ-02 recount:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2014/12/05/barber-mcsally-recount/19948891

[Tender Branson]

If there's a LA exit poll, it should probably be here:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/LA/senate-runoff

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA sen. Runoff results by parish: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/louisiana/runoff/december-06/#.VINrmMvnbqA

[nclib]

Why do you think that Scott out-performed Graham?

Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)

Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)


I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?

(1) can't be true since there were more raw votes in the Graham race in the Scott race. (2) could be true, but the exit polls show Scott outperforming Graham with whites.

I would have thought that Graham + Ravenel would run ahead of Scott, since Graham is a longer incumbent, and on balance is more moderate than Scott (though Graham has had some right-wing rhetoric), and that some racist whites wouldn't vote for Scott.

[ElectionsGuy]

Polls closing in Louisiana in 1 minute.

[Lief 🗽]

AoSHQ called it. RIP.

[Miles]

^ And LA-06 for Graves.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

First precinct in Ascension Parish. She's going to get Blanche'd, maybe to the point where we're going to call it getting Landreiu'd .

[ElectionsGuy]

Early vote has it 58.2-41.8 Cassidy, 77-23 Abraham, 73-27 Graves.

[Miles]

First precinct in Ascension Parish. She's going to get Blanche'd, maybe to the point where we're going to call it getting Landreiu'd .

Ascension Parish is heavily Republican.

[Maxwell]

Early vote has it 58.2-41.8 Cassidy, 77-23 Abraham, 73-27 Graves.

JESUS CHRIST.

Also, she went a conservative radio show earlier and said "I did not vote for Obama". That is hilarious.

[ElectionsGuy]

Early vote has it 58.2-41.8 Cassidy, 77-23 Abraham, 73-27 Graves.

JESUS CHRIST.

Its gone down to 67 now

[RogueBeaver]

AOSHQDD calls Senate for Cassidy.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

First precinct in Ascension Parish. She's going to get Blanche'd, maybe to the point where we're going to call it getting Landreiu'd .

Ascension Parish is heavily Republican.

You're right, I confused it with Assumption.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cassidy is leading EBR 54-46 in the early vote. This is going to be a bad night for Landrieu.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Called for Abraham (no surprise).

[ElectionsGuy]

Some of these early vote numbers look worse (for Landrieu) than Presidential results.

[Recalcuate]

Called for Abraham (no surprise).

Nothing's really shocking here. The only question is how big is the Cassidy landslide win.

[KCDem]

Cassidy leads 64.7-35.3 with 0.2% in. Looks like my prediction will be accurate.

[Miles]

AP calls it