2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Cryptic]

Ignoring the fact it's a midterm year, 2014 is shaping up to be the GOP version of 2012.  The polls were in the right direction, but actually underestimated their party's strength.  They carried nearly every toss up.  And they've even picked up a few races no one thought they would.

[Vega]

First printout for Hawaii US Senate and Hawaii US House CD 1:

[J. J.]

Scott wins in FL.

Wrong board...

Oh, that's you, J.J. Why am I even bother?

Just adding to another post. 

[Ljube]

Can Gillespie make up for Warner's advantage with military absentee ballots?

[Smash255]

NY-4, closer than expected, but with 100% in Rice 52.66-47.24

[Beagle]

Can Gillespie make up for Warner's advantage with military absentee ballots?

No. No Virginia election in the recent years hasn't gone without a close vote and no Virginia election* did not see the Dems pick up at least 0.3% on absentees, including the military.

* Well, other than Deeds. But still, we've been here before, Warner will be fine.

[cinyc]

NY-4, closer than expected, but with 100% in Rice 52.66-47.24

Rice was advertising on NYC broadcast TV for a reason, albeit in pretty light rotation.  It might have put her over the top.  Blakemann didn't run any broadcast ads that I saw.

[Napoleon]

Can Gillespie make up for Warner's advantage with military absentee ballots?

no

[Vosem]

Costa, who was up 4 votes, is now down 17 to little-known Republican Johnny Tacherra. Hardy has taken the lead over Horsford in NV-4 by 388 votes. There's a sh**tload of CA races that are very close, but the only Democrats that are losing are Brownley (stick a fork in her, she's done), Costa, and Peters, while (takes a breath) Garamendi, Bera, Capps, Liu, Chu, and Sanchez are all just barely leading. Republicans also look like they're retaining CA-31, which should really count as a pickup, though it's not as impressive as Ds retaining UT-4. Funnily enough, Ruiz, who was thought of as very vulnerable early on, looks like he will be just fine.

[Frodo]

On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.

Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.

Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.

Impressive almost win for Gillespie.

He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.

You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened.  Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.  

[ElectionsGuy]

TX-23, ME-2, NV-4, MD-6 may go Republican. Wow

[Vosem]

In UT-4, the 88% reporting is apparently a mistake; the district is down to just 26% reporting. Owens leading was not, but his lead is down to 50-47. Even if these are just Democratic places reporting and Love pulls this out, she's definitely cemented her reputation as a chronic underperformer.

[Smash255]

With 67% in, Van Hollen has upped his lead to 54-46. Unlike his neighbor Delaney, it looks like he will pull this one out.

EDIT: It's already been called, but Emanuel Cleaver has been held to a 51-45 margin by Jacob Turk -- I recall KCDem made a satirical thread about Cleaver being endangered.

Van Hollen wins by a bit more and Delaney holds on.  EVERYTHING out in both districts in Montgomery.

[Mr. Smith]

Has the Columbus County thing been resolved yet? Would that be enough to switch NC back to Hagan?

[Vosem]

And Republicans are up to a gain of 10, as back east IA-1 is projected for Republican Rod Blum! We won't have to deal with the confusion of two Democrats in swing states named Patrick Murphy, and Iowa has its first R-majority congressional delegation since before 2006 (and the first time it has 2 R Senators since before 1984).

EDIT: In Democratic actual-pickup news, 62% is counted in NE-2 and Ashford leads 49-46.

[Mogrovejo]

Ignoring the fact it's a midterm year, 2014 is shaping up to be the GOP version of 2012.  The polls were in the right direction, but actually underestimated their party's strength.  They carried nearly every toss up.  And they've even picked up a few races no one thought they would.

Per Nate Silver:

The pre-election polling averages in the 10 most competitive Senate races had a 6-percentage point Democratic bias as compared to the votes counted in each state so far.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblog/special-coverage-the-2014-midterms/?#livepress-update-20407872

The only thing we know about systematic polling failure: sometimes it will happen and it's impossible to predict which party will benefit from it.

[Vosem]

Funnily enough, Joe Heck -- who's opponent, Erin Bilbray, is a real politician who ran a real campaign -- is outperforming Dina Titus right now, who faced a complete no-name.

[Torie]

Vosem, you need to stop projecting CA from absentee ballot tallies (and that is all that has been counted, and will be counted for another hour at least). Costa for example will win rather easily. Hispanics don't vote much absentee.

[SamInTheSouth]

So can we officially say Love lost because of racism? Or did the Dem guy just outwork/outconnect her?

Did Brown just lose in very liberal Maryland because of racism?

[IceSpear]

On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.

Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.

Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.

Impressive almost win for Gillespie.

He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.

You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened.  Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.  

Uh, is this a joke? It's completely implausible to make up 13,000 votes in a recount, unless there's a bunch of uncounted ballots yet to be discovered. But since this is Virginia and not Illinois or Wisconsin, the chances of that seem pretty slim. It's hard enough to make up 1,000 votes in a recount, much less 13x that.

[Vosem]

Vosem, you need to stop projecting CA from absentee ballot tallies (and that is all that has been counted, and will be counted for another hour at least). Costa for example will win rather easily. Hispanics don't vote much absentee.

I'm tryna work with what I got, Torie. And Costa has a lead of 220 votes: even if Election Day returns favor him and he wins, this is a seat that was universally thought Safe D where the incumbent is getting quite the scare.

What do you think the absentee results say?

[J. J.]

On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.

Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.

Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.

Impressive almost win for Gillespie.

He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.

You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened.  Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.  

Uh, is this a joke? It's completely implausible to make up 13,000 votes in a recount, unless there's a bunch of uncounted ballots yet to be discovered. But since this is Virginia and not Illinois or Wisconsin, the chances of that seem pretty slim. It's hard enough to make up 1,000 votes in a recount, much less 13x that.

All precincts were counted, but that was only 95% of the ballots.  I'm guessing absentees

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Maffei did the tried and true tactic of having a typical Blue Dog voting record, and then losing a D+5 district by 18 points. Good riddance to that worthless trash.

[Vosem]

In unrelated, Eastern news, Kathleen Rice has received a checkmark. Will Hurd is leading Pete Gallego 50-47 with 85% in; bar something unexpected, Hurd should be called as the winner soon. Most too-close-to-call races left east of the Four Corners are either very slow counters: in ME-2, with 49% in, Poliquin leads 46-43; in NE-2, with 62% in, Ashford leads 49-46; and in MN-8, with 61% reporting, Nolan leads 49-47; headed for an acrimonious recount, which would be NY-18 and NY-25; and places where what's left will cut the lead down strongly, so MD-6, where Bongino leads 50-48 but what's out is strongly Democratic. Those six are all that's left east of the Four Corners (excepting TX-23, which to me looks like it'll be getting a checkmark any minute now). West of the Four Corners, there are still lots of things which are unclear.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Maffei did the tried and true tactic of having a typical Blue Dog voting record, and then losing a D+5 district by 18 points. Good riddance to that worthless trash.

That's the big silver lining here.  Enough with the Blue Dogs and their pandering to the right.  Be gone with ye!