2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Vosem]

So Terry goes down?

Probably, but there's still 31% left to count and we don't know where that's from. Up 3 points with 69% in is a good place for Ashford to be, though.

[Boston Bread]

In the HOUSE GOP is on course to a new record: 1946 uhey had 246...

We know what happened next...

[Vosem]

Young has won reelection, basically, even though he has no checkmark; same goes for Gabbard. Only absentees in NH-1; Takai leads by 8 points. I don't know if there's a big absentee/Election Day divide in Hawaii, but Djou needs a significant victory with Election Day voters if he wants to go to Congress. Not impossible but it looks like Takai is favored.

EDIT: And, finally, after it being clear for at least the past hour, Will Hurd gets the checkmark in TX-23. Interesting to compare different Romney-Democrats who were thought safe; Patrick Murphy won by double-digits (considering the mood this year, that's freaking amazing -- honorary pickup?), while Gallego went on to lose to an underfunded Anglo opponent.

[Badger]

I think my favorite part of the night quickly became the humbling of the Nerd Herd around here. You know, the people that act like Mark Warner is literally God-like. What an absolute joke of a candidate to only beat Gillespie by 1%. I wouldn't even deliver a victory speech if I were him. I'd be too embarrassed.

And how close did you predict Gillespie would come? Or ever once opine anything prior to the last two weeks indicating Warner wouldn't win easily?

Welcome to the herd.

[KCDem]

How did Synema win by double digits

[Recalcuate]

UT-4 goes into the R column. Called for Love per CNN's website.

50-47 with 99% of the vote in.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Thanks for the map Fuzzy!

You're welcome! 

[NewYorkExpress]

Looks like Pryor will win get less than 40%. So maybe he is Blanche Lincoln

Wow, the polls were off there. It had been considered competitive until recently, and still it seemed like he was going to lose by high single digits. I'm think Arkansas may be unwinnable for the Democrats. And yes, that includes Hillary.

It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.

Doug Owens would be impressive if he wins.

Yup, Hillary has no chance in Arkansas, barring massive GOP overreach and backlash in the next two years. Same goes for WV/KY, but most people already knew that.

Even with GOP overreach, Hillary has no chance in Arkansas... The margin might shrink a little, but she'd still lose by about 15%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In the HOUSE GOP is on course to a new record: 1946 uhey had 246...

We know what happened next...

They had 267 for the 1929-1930 Congress. Naturally the economy did awesome with them that much in control.

[IceSpear]

Grimes is losing by 16 points. Obama lost by 17 points in 2008.

Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Updated/corrected:

[Fuzzybigfoot]

TX-23 flipped

[NewYorkExpress]

Grimes is losing by 16 points. Obama lost by 17 points in 2008.

Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too.

Most of these people aren't going to vote for a woman either... We should've run Edwards, mistress and all.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Grimes is losing by 16 points. Obama lost by 17 points in 2008.

Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too.

Most of these people aren't going to vote for a woman either... We should've run Edwards, mistress and all.

Especially West Virginia.

[Vosem]

And UT-4 has been called for Love. With 99% in (though who knows if that number's real or not), she leads 50-47 (that probably is). An underperformance but, a win is a win. Hopefully as an incumbent she can get entrenched. That makes the net R+12. Counting everything in a non-Pacific state as an uncalled Eastern, there are still 9 left, most of which look pretty good for Democrats; a gain in NE-2 would be especially sweet. Discounting same-party battles, there are 11 races that are within 10 points right now in CA; 10 of those have incumbent Ds and only 1, CA-31, is in R territory. (You can maybe take Ruiz and Lieu out of that, since they're both just below 55%; that's still so many opportunities for Rs in CA). Right now, Aguilar, DeMaio, and Tacherra lead, and it's been that way for a while: would be a net of R+1 in CA. Lots of Democrats barely holding on to leads; CA could break into something worse than NY or something relatively benign for Democrats.

EDIT: A break for Democrats -- Rick Nolan is reelected in MN-8, which was actually expected to be a Republican pickup.

[Recalcuate]

Alaska update

Num. Report Precinct 441 - Num. Reporting 160 36.28%

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      160   36.3%
Times Counted      107415/509011   21.1%
Total Votes      106397   
Begich, Mark   DEM   47399   44.55%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   3807   3.58%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   2211   2.08%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   52507   49.35%
Write-in Votes      473   0.44%

[publicunofficial]

Nolan declared winner over Mills in MN-08.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.

[Boston Bread]

Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.

[KCDem]

Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.

Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.

Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?

He's still got a chance, heck probably a better chance than Landreiu, but not looking good.

[Vosem]

Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.

Thank you. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.

Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.

Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?

I do think late Alaskan results trend more rural and Democratic, actually, considering Ted Stevens narrowly led on Election Night and Begich only overtook him later. But I don't think they're so Democratic to overcome a six-point lead; the race swung by about 2 percent then. Sullivan's margin could -- actually should -- narrow, but I don't see him losing. If Begich can keep this to 4 points, it'll actually be very impressive considering the drubbings other red-state Democrats have received.

[Storebought]

Does anybody have a link on the partisan makeup of the House electorate?

[Boston Bread]

Actually Begich is ticking up now. Still two-thirds so it could happen.  If he pulls it out Sullivan becomes the next Ken Buck.

[Recalcuate]

Alaska update - 44.2% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      195   44.2%
Times Counted      130571/509011   25.7%
Total Votes      129351   
Begich, Mark   DEM   57288   44.29%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   4660   3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   2619   2.02%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   64189   49.62%
Write-in Votes      595   0.46%