2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Boston Bread]

It seems like the west cost is a natural anti-wave barrier for democrats. It wasn't like that in 1994.
Edit: Is Begich losing for sure? Can't tell.
Edit: Back to R+6 on CNN. Not getting my hopes up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It seems like the west cost is a natural anti-wave barrier for democrats. It wasn't like that in 1994.
Edit: Is Begich losing for sure? Can't tell.
Edit: Back to R+6 on CNN. Not getting my hopes up.

Bera and Costa are trailing here in California, but they were always going to have tight races, like they have before. I think the Democrats lose their 2/3rds majority in the CA State Senate, but that's probably more because they only had it in the first place because of luck of which seats were up in 2012, thanks to some double representation from the 2010 seats after redistricting.

[Vosem]

Slowly but surely, the last stragglers of the East are counting. With 75% in NE-2, Ashford continues to lead by his selfsame 49-46 margin. If what's left is very R, Terry can still win, but it's looking progressively worse and worse for him. In MD-6, with 97% counted, and the remainder seemingly from heavily-D Montgomery County, Delaney has taken his first lead of the night, 50-49, or about 1700 votes. Stick a fork in Bongino -- he's done. D hold. Checkmark soon. With just 57% reporting in ME-2 (why? how? such a low number so far east) Poliquin continues to lead 47-43. Considering LePage has a similar margin with 64% reporting and it's been called, I suspect Poliquin, too, will soon receive a checkmark. NY's uncalled races are, again, finished counting and are just very very close, with Democratic incumbents Sean Maloney and Louise Slaughter leading by hundreds of votes.

Further east, with ~70% reporting in all three races, Hardy leads Horsford 49-46, Kirkpatrick leads Tobin 52-48 (both probably soon to receive checkmarks); Barber leads McSally by 247 votes. That one could well go to overtime unless some of the outstanding area is heavily R or D.

In CA, Doug Ose has taken the lead from Ami Bera; Aguilar, DeMaio, and Tacherra continue to lead. All projected pickups have no more than 51.3% of the vote. Democrats lead with less than 52%: John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney, Julia Brownley. Still no more than absentees in CA-33, where Lieu leads Carr just 53-47. Republicans are at net+2 in CA right now; the final result will probably be a net of 1-3, and won't be known for some time.

[Sbane]

Vosem, I doubt California will be worse than R+2 and even that is being charitable to the Republicans. Costa will not lose because Fresno doesn't count its vote till late. Brownley, Bera and Peters are in a bit of trouble though. Aguilar should pull it out as well.

[IceSpear]

Rounds won a majority in SD, so at least we don't have to chalk that up in a "missed opportunities" category. Probably would've gone the same way as Kansas.

[Vosem]

Vosem, I doubt California will be worse than R+2 and even that is being charitable to the Republicans. Costa will not lose because Fresno doesn't count its vote till late. Brownley, Bera and Peters are in a bit of trouble though. Aguilar should pull it out as well.

Tacherra is out to a lead of more than 1000 votes now. I don't know how much margin Fresno will give Costa, but he'll need every vote. CA is R+2 right now (Aguilar, but Ose/Tacherra/DeMaio), with Democrats having more narrow leads and the Central Valley, from Garamendi to Valadao and everything between them, getting more Republican as counting progresses. In an ideal scenario for Democrats D+1 isn't out of the question, but I think R+2, or worse, is quite conceivable.

In intra-party races, Newhouse, Honda, and Knight have all maintained consistent leads in the high single digits; I'd imagine they all win. Knight was considered a distinct underdog to Strickland, and Khanna was considered to have momentum against Honda. Newhouse was expected to win.

[Panda Express]

So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all

[IceSpear]

So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all

It's pretty amazing how Pryor, Landrieu, Grimes, Tennant, Nunn are all posting Obama-esque numbers in these states. Very, very grim. To Appalachia, (D) = Obama now.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.

Thank you. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.

Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.

Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?

I do think late Alaskan results trend more rural and Democratic, actually, considering Ted Stevens narrowly led on Election Night and Begich only overtook him later. But I don't think they're so Democratic to overcome a six-point lead; the race swung by about 2 percent then. Sullivan's margin could -- actually should -- narrow, but I don't see him losing. If Begich can keep this to 4 points, it'll actually be very impressive considering the drubbings other red-state Democrats have received.

My expectation would be that for the Native Alaskan vote, the relative advantage is more now for Begich than when he went against Stevens, given Stevens work in establishing and advocating for the Native Corporations, meanwhile having Begich's more recent efforts at the Native vote and Sullivan's perceived hostility to their issues.

[Lief 🗽]

So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all

It's pretty amazing how Pryor, Landrieu, Grimes, Tennant, Nunn are all posting Obama-esque numbers in these states. Very, very grim. To Appalachia, (D) = Obama now.

The Senate map is basically the presidential map from 2012. It's terrifying. We can't win the senate if we can only win blue states.

[Sbane]

Vosem, I doubt California will be worse than R+2 and even that is being charitable to the Republicans. Costa will not lose because Fresno doesn't count its vote till late. Brownley, Bera and Peters are in a bit of trouble though. Aguilar should pull it out as well.

Tacherra is out to a lead of more than 1000 votes now. I don't know how much margin Fresno will give Costa, but he'll need every vote. CA is R+2 right now (Aguilar, but Ose/Tacherra/DeMaio), with Democrats having more narrow leads and the Central Valley, from Garamendi to Valadao and everything between them, getting more Republican as counting progresses. In an ideal scenario for Democrats D+1 isn't out of the question, but I think R+2, or worse, is quite conceivable.

In intra-party races, Newhouse, Honda, and Knight have all maintained consistent leads in the high single digits; I'd imagine they all win. Knight was considered a distinct underdog to Strickland, and Khanna was considered to have momentum against Honda. Newhouse was expected to win.

In 2010, Costa sat behind by something like 2-3 points for days until Fresno finally got its sh**t together. Although this year with very low turnout, especially among democrat leaning Hispanics and Asians, that might not be enough. We shall see. 

[cinyc]

Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.

Thank you. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.

Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.

Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?

I do think late Alaskan results trend more rural and Democratic, actually, considering Ted Stevens narrowly led on Election Night and Begich only overtook him later. But I don't think they're so Democratic to overcome a six-point lead; the race swung by about 2 percent then. Sullivan's margin could -- actually should -- narrow, but I don't see him losing. If Begich can keep this to 4 points, it'll actually be very impressive considering the drubbings other red-state Democrats have received.

My expectation would be that for the Native Alaskan vote, the relative advantage is more now for Begich than when he went against Stevens, given Stevens work in establishing and advocating for the Native Corporations, meanwhile having Begich's more recent efforts at the Native vote and Sullivan's perceived hostility to their issues.

Based on percentage of precincts reporting in the Alaska House races:
Fairbanks is most in (marginal R), followed by the Kenai Peninsula (heavy R) and the Southeast (marginal D).  All are above 70% in, while 44% of the total precincts are reporting.  The heavy R Mat-Su is slightly more in than average, while bellwether Anchorage is slightly less in than average.  The heavy-D Bush significantly trails and is only 22% in.

[Recalcuate]

Alaska update - 55.1% in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      243   55.1%
Times Counted      158536/509011   31.1%
Total Votes      157062   
Begich, Mark   DEM   69537   44.27%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   5633   3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3070   1.95%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   78126   49.74%
Write-in Votes      696   0.44%

[Vosem]

Indeed we shall, Sbane -- with 88% in, Tacherra's lead is down to exactly 777 votes. If the remainder is heavily Democratic, Costa will beat Tacherra, if unimpressively. In uncalled Eastern news, the Bangor Daily News has called ME-2 for Poliquin. Delaney and Poliquin should both be receiving checkmarks soon. (Maloney might deserve a checkmark as well; even though it's been at 100% for a while, his margin has gotten progressively larger. NY-25 hasn't shifted since it's been at 100% ).

[Recalcuate]

Indeed we shall, Sbane -- with 88% in, Tacherra's lead is down to exactly 777 votes. If the remainder is heavily Democratic, Costa will beat Tacherra, if unimpressively. In uncalled Eastern news, the Bangor Daily News has called ME-2 for Poliquin. Delaney and Poliquin should both be receiving checkmarks soon. (Maloney might deserve a checkmark as well; even though it's been at 100% for a while, his margin has gotten progressively larger. NY-25 hasn't shifted since it's been at 100% ).

They still have to count the absentees in New York, IIRC. Still likely a Maloney win either way.

[BaconBacon96]

All of a sudden I've become a lot less confident about the ability of the Democrat candidate to win places like Georgia, Arkansas and North Carolina come 2016.

[cinyc]

Alaska update - 55.1% in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      243   55.1%
Times Counted      158536/509011   31.1%
Total Votes      157062   
Begich, Mark   DEM   69537   44.27%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   5633   3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3070   1.95%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   78126   49.74%
Write-in Votes      696   0.44%

More of Anchorage, the Bush and the Mat-Su.  Mat-Su is 65% in - 10 points higher than the statewide average of 55%.  Anchorage is -3.  Bush Alaska is -25.

[Vosem]

Indeed we shall, Sbane -- with 88% in, Tacherra's lead is down to exactly 777 votes. If the remainder is heavily Democratic, Costa will beat Tacherra, if unimpressively. In uncalled Eastern news, the Bangor Daily News has called ME-2 for Poliquin. Delaney and Poliquin should both be receiving checkmarks soon. (Maloney might deserve a checkmark as well; even though it's been at 100% for a while, his margin has gotten progressively larger. NY-25 hasn't shifted since it's been at 100% ).

They still have to count the absentees in New York, IIRC. Still likely a Maloney win either way.

But those usually lean D, right? I seem to recall in 2012 it only became clear that Democrats "took" the NY Senate once absentee votes were counted. If those break R Maloney probably has a solid enough win to stick in the House, but Slaughter could be slaughtered.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nolan declared winner over Mills in MN-08.

Thank God for my island of sanity state then. Time for bed.

[Vosem]

Well, it's 2:30 and I'm heading to bed. A bunch of safe Democratic seats were just called in California, but there's still 8 Democratic seats at risk (of which Republicans lead in 3/8), and Aguilar's 51-49 lead over Chabot is obviously not good enough for a call. Setting my alarm for 7; I'll check back in then. G'night, y'alls. It was a fantastic Election Night, covered very professionally by news-media, discussed very politely and expertly by the Atlas, and with, dare I say it, fantastic results. I hope to see many more like it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Vosem, I doubt California will be worse than R+2 and even that is being charitable to the Republicans. Costa will not lose because Fresno doesn't count its vote till late. Brownley, Bera and Peters are in a bit of trouble though. Aguilar should pull it out as well.

None of the close races in California will be called any time soon. Here are the close ones, and there could still be others not on this list that could flip.
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/close-contests/

[SPQR]

Information here and there:
Pryor below 40%
Weiland below 30%
Kitzbaher below 50% (for now,at least)
Van Hollen eventually above 60%
Sandoval above 70% (costing Democrats a House seat,possibly)

[Recalcuate]

Alaska Update almost 2/3 in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      289   65.5%
Times Counted      178060/509011   35.0%
Total Votes      176419   
Begich, Mark   DEM   78218   44.34%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6300   3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3393   1.92%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   87711   49.72%
Write-in Votes      797   0.45%

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Alaska Update almost 2/3 in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      289   65.5%
Times Counted      178060/509011   35.0%
Total Votes      176419   
Begich, Mark   DEM   78218   44.34%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6300   3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3393   1.92%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   87711   49.72%
Write-in Votes      797   0.45%

This is gonna come down to the wire, obviously.

[IceSpear]

Looks like polls in Alaska (besides Ivan Moore and Hellenthal of course) were pretty good this time. No strong pro-D or pro-incumbent bias.