2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.

I wouldn't concede if I were Begich, either.  He's leading the early vote that's in so far, and more of it is still out.  I doubt there are enough votes outstanding for Begich to win, but why concede until all the votes have been counted?

^^^^

[IceSpear]

Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.

I wouldn't concede if I were Begich, either.  He's leading the early vote that's in so far, and more of it is still out.  I doubt there are enough votes outstanding for Begich to win, but why concede until all the votes have been counted?

^^^^

[IceSpear]

Races still uncalled on the NYT:

AZ-02 - McSally (R) ahead by 46 votes. Presumably what's out is more Republican territory, but this could go either way.

CA-07 - Ose (R) up by about 3,000 votes with absentees uncounted. Even though they'll likely skew Dem, Ose probably hangs on. R+1

CA-09 - Don't know why this is uncalled, McNerney (D) should win.

CA-16 - Costa (D) is narrowly behind, but the late vote should skew Dem. Costa probably hangs on.

CA-17 - Only question is whether Honda (D) or Khanna (D) win. Honda is currently ahead by ~3,500 votes.

CA-26 - Brownley (D) is barely ahead, but she should hold on.

CA-31 - Aguilar (D) should win. D+1. This, NE-02, and FL-02 will be the only Dem pickups.

CA-52 - DeMaio (R) narrowly ahead. Could go either way.

LA-05 and LA-06 - Republicans will hold these seats in the runoffs. Ralph Abraham and Garrett Graves will be new congressmen.

MD-06 - Don't know why this is still uncalled. Delaney (D) will win.

NE-02 - See above, Ashford (D) will win and Terry has already conceded. D+1

NY-25 - Slaughter (D) up by around 500 votes. She probably hangs on.

WA-04 - The only question here is which Republican wins the head to head, Newhouse or Didier.

So assuming Republicans win AZ-02 and CA-07 with Democrats holding/winning the rest, the final count will be 249-187, a net gain of R+14.

[Vosem]

On the topic of outstanding House races, over at DKE they write that if absentees behave similarly to 2010, Costa and Peters should both ultimately pull it out (so a net zero in California), but Slaughter could very well still lose to Assini: apparently on Election Night 2010 Maffei enjoyed a larger lead than Slaughter has now only to go on to lose to Buerkle regardless. (Also, my god, if absentees in upstate NY really do lean Republican Katko could end up with over 60% of the vote. Amazing.)

[SPQR]

Pryor ended up losing by 17%...more than Hutto vs Graham in SC.
LOL

[IceSpear]

Other outstanding races:

VA-Sen - Warner has stretched his lead, now leading by about 15,000 votes (was 13,000 earlier). A call on this one is probably forthcoming.

AK-Sen - Sullivan's 8,000 vote lead looks pretty solid, but the very thin probability of absentees skewing heavily Dem enough to save Begich keep this uncalled.

LA-Sen - Landrieu 42, Cassidy 41, Maness 14. Runoff.

VT-Gov - Shumlin falls below 50% and wins by a pathetically narrow 2,000 vote margin. But since he'll likely stay ahead, the legislature will have no qualms about electing him. D hold.

AK-Gov - Walker is currently ahead by 3,000 votes here, but god only knows how the bush will vote in this race.

If Walker wins, it'll be a net of +2 for the GOP, +1 for Indies, and -3 for Dems. Truly stunning.

[ShadowRocket]

Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?

[publicunofficial]

Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?

Something like 60% from what I remember.

[5280]

AZ-2 as of now:

McSally: 50.6%
90,345

Barber: 49.9%
88,267

[Vosem]

With 100% in AZ-2, McSally leads 50.6%-49.4%. 2,078 votes -- difficult to see that being overcome with absentees. McSally will probably pull this one out.

[Vega]

Barber has never gone down without a fight. He might have some life left.

[5280]

Lets just say Barber is done. It's over .5% difference.

[ShadowRocket]

Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?

Something like 60% from what I remember.

Thanks. I'd like to see Begich survive, but with a number like that it doesn't look good.

[Recalcuate]

Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?

Assuming 40K votes out per speculation on this thread, votes would need to fall 24,000-16,000; roughly  60/40.

Assuming 30K votes out, it would roughly have to be 19,000-11,000 or 63/37.

Assuming it's just the 22K absentees remaining, the vote would have to be 15,000-7,000 or 68/32.

[Eraserhead]

The bleeding just seems unrelenting. Of course, the Dems are losing NY-21 in a landslide.

Only 2% of the vote. Doesn't mean much of anything.

Maloney won, Torie!

[IceSpear]

Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?!

Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.

[Colbert]

How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

lol


americain people...

[Smash255]

Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?!

Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.

Much of Bridgeport appears to be out, though it is on the CT BOE site


53.7-46.3 according to the Harrtford Courant map

[Lief 🗽]

Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?!

Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.

Democrats look to have done a decent job gerrymandering Connecticut.

[Keystone Phil]

How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

lol


americain people...

Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.

[Lief 🗽]

Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.

[Colbert]

How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

I know this is not nice to say, but if they knew their head from their Inks, they wouldn't be so damn poor. Poor people, more than others, really buy into the ignorant identity politics crap that the GOP excels at.

that's true, but not completely


dem offers to poors obviously better economics and social policy than rep

but WITH that, they are for minorities quotas, LGBT's stuff, pro-immigration, against death penalty


a party with join dem economics (welfare state, obamacare -or something like obamacare-, winimum wage, fight against debt) and the societal points I was speak about, this party would easily win all elections


but that's for not have such party than bipartism is on place...

[rbt48]

It was amazing to me that Lee Terry was as close to a win as he ended up being.  Ashford's TV ads (and there were lots) all quoted Terry saying there was no way he would give up his salary during sequestration because he had a big house and a kid in college.  Really, there was nothing that Terry could say in response!  I think only the Republican tail wind kept the race from being a 10 point win.

[Vosem]

Noticed something interesting about possible future GOP Congressman Mark Assini from NY-25: he was the Conservative Party nominee in neighboring NY-29 in 2004, when he garnered 6% of the vote.

[jd1433]

Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?!

Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.

Democrats look to have done a decent job gerrymandering Connecticut.

It's not really a gerrymander if you don't have 1 GOP house seat where you threw all of your excess margin into make your other races easy.

CT is just that D on its own that they'll likely take them all anyway.


P.S. I do realize that a common tactic is to take the closest PVI seat you have and stretch it against things like media markets, your organizational strength, etc. so that it's expensive for a challenger (but that can backfire if it does switch as now you're disadvantaged).