2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Keystone Phil]

Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.

Yeah, this will give us something to sweat about for a few weeks.

[jimrtex]

With 100% in AZ-2, McSally leads 50.6%-49.4%. 2,078 votes -- difficult to see that being overcome with absentees. McSally will probably pull this one out.

That is with absentee ballots added in.  Arizona requires mail ballots to be received by election day.  As early as last Wednesday, voters were being encouraged to walk their ballots in to either the county election officials, or the election-day polling place.

McSally received 46.9% of early votes, and 58.7% of the election day votes (71% of votes were early).

In this case, the early votes in Cochise County could not be counted because of machine failure.   Election day results were about 8K:4K in the county, and it was so heavily Republican that it was around 11K:9K.  The overall percentage for McSally in Cochise dropped from 68% to 60% with the inclusion of the early votes, but the margin increased from around 4K to 6K.

It is more probable that there will be stories about a stolen election, than Barber will win.

Factoids to be stressed:

5/6 of the vote is in Pima County, which Barber won easily.

The Douglas area on the border was carried by Barber, while McSally carried the military-dominated Sierra Vista area.  But the county seat is in Bisbee.

The early ballots in heavily Republican Cochise County were trucked out of the district to Graham County to be counted.

Even though the percentage of Republican votes dropped, the margin increased.  Republicans have to resort to algebra and the use of percentages to explain why.

Tombstone, site of the Gunfight at the OK Corral is in Cochise County.

Fort Huachuca is a base for military intelligence operations, and was a based for the 1916 invasion of Mexico.

[RogueBeaver]

Re AK: Amanda Coyne said the gap's too wide for Begich to close. So Sullivan will be declared the winner in a couple of weeks...

[jimrtex]

Sacramento County has about 102,000 VBM to process, and 9,000 provisionals.

CA-3 is entirely within the county and has about 57% of the votes counted so far, which would indicate around 64,000 more votes to be counted, which is more than either Ose or Bera have received.

Ordinarily VBM would skew Republican, because it requires greater advance planning and perhaps a more stable mailing address.  But in this election, election-day voting may have gone more Republican, because turnout would be more based on self-motivation.  Folks aren't going to get enthused about voting Brown.

The next vote dump is 4 pm PST on Thursday.

[Vosem]

Another interesting comparison: in 2012, Chris Collins barely beat Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul 51-49. In 2014, he beat his Democratic opponent (admittedly a Some Dude) 72-28.

[Talleyrand]

Another interesting comparison: in 2012, Chris Collins barely beat Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul 51-49. In 2014, he beat his Democratic opponent (admittedly a Some Dude) 72-28.

Impressive, but that district always has wild swings. Even in the previous, more Democratic version of the district, Chris Lee won 74% of the vote in 2010, before Hochul won by 4 points a few months later.

[Lief 🗽]

Udall has closed the margin a lot since last night. He may end up losing by around Hagan's margin. What could have been with a slightly better campaign...

[Colbert]

So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all

It's pretty amazing how Pryor, Landrieu, Grimes, Tennant, Nunn are all posting Obama-esque numbers in these states. Very, very grim. To Appalachia, (D) = Obama now.

The Senate map is basically the presidential map from 2012. It's terrifying. We can't win the senate if we can only win blue states.

RED states

don't forgot the wise rule of uselectionsatlas

[Matty]

Udall has closed the margin a lot since last night. He may end up losing by around Hagan's margin. What could have been with a slightly better campaign...

Both boulder and denver are 100% in. The only counties left reporting are swing counties, so I doubt much changes.

[Colbert]

How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

lol


americain people...

Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.

stereotypicals are statistically more true than wrong

[Vosem]

Oddly enough, Tacherra is currently leading (1.0%) by more than DeMaio is (0.6%). Ose looks OK, but further pickup opportunities in CA (and NY-25 hundreds of miles away) still very unclear.

[jimrtex]

Fresno County has 32.5K absentee, and 10.1K provisional votes to count.  22% of the Fresno County vote was in CA-16, so this would indicate about 10K votes yet to count in Fresno/CA-16.  The next vote dump in Fresno will be on Friday.   Incidentally, only about 25% of absentee ballots in CA-16 were returned, compared to 38%% in CA-22.

I couldn't find any information about uncounted votes in Madera and Merced counties, which together have about 3/5 of the vote.   Tacherra did slightly better (56.1% vs 54.2%) in early voting v. election day voting in Merced County.   But the votes to be counted would be Tuesday-arriving absentee ballots which might not be the same proportions.

I'd expect Ashley Swearingen to have a bit of a coat tail effect.  Fresno should be provincial enough to turnout to vote for their mayor.

[RI]

The Onion strikes again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Onion strikes again.

I'm not sure that the Onion is a satire site any more.

[jimrtex]

98%+ of CA-26 is in Ventura County, and 84% of Ventura votes were in CA-26.  But I could find no information on votes to be counted.

There shouldn't be any swings caused by different county reporting schedules, but it is conceivable that the ballots would be processed by precinct.   I think it would be a lot more reliable to sort ballots by precinct, before verifying singatures, and running the ballots through the vote counting machines.

[jimrtex]

CA-31 is entirely in San Bernardino County.

There are 44,436 mail ballots to be counted, 15,834 in CA-31.  There are also 3,238 election days ballots to be counted (countywide) and 14,922 provisionals.   It would take about a 55:45 breakdown for Chabot for a 2nd Miracle in the 31st.

[jimrtex]

CA-52 is entirely in San Diego County, and represents about 29% of the San Diego vote.  There are about 180K mail ballots/provisionals to be counted in the county, which would indicate around 52K in CA-52, which would represent around 1/4 of the total vote in the district.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.

Damn, 40,000?

[Matty]

I'm pretty sure it's 24k. No idea where the 40k number came from.

[Recalcuate]

Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.

Damn, 40,000?

It's more like somewhere between 22,000 and 40,000. The difference are absentee/early ballots that were requested, but not received.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.

Damn, 40,000?

It's more like somewhere between 22,000 and 40,000. The difference are absentee/early ballots that were requested, but not received.

Ahh, I see.

[Matty]

There is a tiny window for Begich, but I think it is safe to say that it would be a very profound miracle if he pulled it out. Looks like the GOP wave did not carry Sullivan to a wide victory though.

[Smash255]

I'm pretty sure it's 24k. No idea where the 40k number came from.

24k early ballots/absentees not counted yet

13k absentees not returned yet (few day window can be given because of the remote locations)

13k Provisionals (estimated based off Provisionals in 2010)

So there is 24k that needs to be counted, potential for another 26k on top of that, but in reality maybe half get counted.  That is probably where the 40k was coming from.

[Miles]

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[Ebowed]

How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

lol


americain people...

Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.

Do you think it would be worth checking how many people in that county rely on the government subsidies they continually vote against?

Of course it wouldn't be worth checking.