2014 US Congressional Election Results

[KCDem]

All Democratic incumbent reps will win in California. There are about 1.7 million ballots to be counted:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

[publicunofficial]

-AP has (finally) called the MD-06 race for John Delaney.

-John Chabot has conceded in CA-31, Pete Aguilar gives Dems their 3rd House pick-up

-Scott Peters has pulled ahead of Carl DeMaio.
Current tally:
Scott Peters (D) - 50.27% - 78,837
Carl DeMaio (R) - 49.73% - 77,976

-Doug Ose's lead against Ami Bera has dropped to 2183 votes (1.72%, on election night it was 2.74%). If the rest of the late votes follow the current trend, Bera will end up winning with room to spare, similar to the situation in AZ-2 and CA-16.


Overall, it looks like the 114th Congress will be 246 R - 189 D in the House, barring something unexpected in the Louisiana runoffs.

[Maxwell]

I still think Tacherra actually has a shot at this, but we'll see. And if he does, wow, he's very conservative (mentioned "biblical values" and "constitutional purity" in his video). Costa really blew it. Even if Costa wins, he blew it harder than most D+8 Congressmen.

[Vosem]

All Democratic incumbent reps will win in California. There are about 1.7 million ballots to be counted:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

Movement toward the Ds has actually already started, but just to keep hope alive, I want to note that in the primaries this year absentees generally helped Republican candidates. 1.7 mil comes out to ~32000 per district -- in practice, the two really questionable districts (CA-7 and CA-16) are in Central California, which has abysmally low turnout, so there's probably less outstanding in both. (All other CA ones, I think, it's clear the Democrat will win). That means Bera needs, at minimum, 53.4% of outstanding ballots to be for him just to have a shot -- an improvement of more than 4 points compared to current results, which already take some absentees into account. That's the best-case scenario. There's a shot, but I doubt it. Costa looks better -- counting the way I did for CA-7, he needs just 51.1%. But considering CA-16 is the single lowest-turnout district in all of California, the 'real' figure he needs may be somewhat higher. (32,000 ballots would be 30% of all votes in CA-16 -- a really implausibly high figure).

In short terms: McNerney/Brownley/Aguilar/Peters have all basically certainly won. Meanwhile, it can't be called, but I'd rather be Ose than Bera right now. In Costa/Tacherra, the history looks good for Costa (he came back from worse in terms of number-of-votes-margin against Vidak, though turnout was higher in 2010), but the math seems to me to look good for a Tacherra victory by the skin of his teeth. (As an aside, you ever gotten that feeling on a math test where you can't quite believe the answer you got but can't find any mistakes in your work either? That's what CA-16 looks like to me).

Barber has won in AZ, almost certainly, with stuff still out in Pima and McSally barely holding on. She might improve on the 2012 margin, but still. In upstate NY, late counting usually benefits Republicans, unlike in CA, and in 2010 Buerkle made up a margin bigger than the one Assini is down by now to beat Maffei, but this time turnout is not Republicans' friend: fewer people voted now, and it doesn't seem there's enough out there for Assini to win. But a victory for Assini remains conceivable.

My God, the eastern Arizona results are such outliers. And while most unexpected Democratic victories were due to either weak Republican candidates (Southerland/Terry/Domino come to mind) or underestimated turnout (MN-8), neither explanation seems to really hold up in Arizona. What happened to Tobin/McSally?

[IceSpear]

So at this point, it seems the only way for Democrats to take back the House before the next census is a massive wave. Luckily, massive waves seem to be becoming more and more common.

[Sbane]

Elk Grove may end up saving Bera. It is a middle class, fairly new suburb with lots of minorities, including blacks. It is the sort of place that would love to vote by mail. Also, it is not correct to compare Bera's district to Baca's. Sure, both have lots of minorities but they are different. The minorities in Bera's district are middle class and less likely to sit out an election. Also Bera isn't thwt reliant on young people in his district as it is basically suburban. 

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/0622020.html

[Maxwell]

Tobin is a bore, and I think McSally is pretty overrated.

[jimrtex]

Barber has won in AZ, almost certainly, with stuff still out in Pima and McSally barely holding on. She might improve on the 2012 margin, but still.

Pima County had about 30K mail ballots to be counted at 11:20 AM Thursday.  Around 2/3 should be for AZ-2.  Mail ballots are verified by the Recorder and then turned over to the Elections Department for counting.  There were a lot of ballots turned over on Wednesday, with just a couple of small batches on Thursday morning.  It shouldn't take too long to count ballots.  The district had around 120,000 early ballots.  Unless they were counting before election day (is that even legal?), they were able to shove a lot of ballots through on Tuesday and Wednesday.  It is possible that all the early ballots were finished by end of day on Thursday, and are in the latest released number.

There were also about 10K provisional ballots, which at 11;20 AM were still in possession of the Recorder.  They may trickle through depending on how long they take to verify.

[jimrtex]

Sacramento County has about 102,000 VBM to process, and 9,000 provisionals.

CA-3 is entirely within the county and has about 57% of the votes counted so far, which would indicate around 64,000 more votes to be counted, which is more than either Ose or Bera have received.

Ordinarily VBM would skew Republican, because it requires greater advance planning and perhaps a more stable mailing address.  But in this election, election-day voting may have gone more Republican, because turnout would be more based on self-motivation.  Folks aren't going to get enthused about voting Brown.

The next vote dump is 4 pm PST on Thursday.

Sacramento County counted 32% of its outstanding mail ballots, but this evaporated 38% of Ose's lead.  This could end up being within a couple of hundred votes.

[Sbane]

So a likely recount in Ca-7? That should help Bera even if he ends up a few votes short in the first count.

[Torie]

Yes, McSally is in trouble. Barber closed the gap by about 900 votes on a Pima vote dump (not all in the CD presumably) of 16,000, and there are 24,000 Pima votes left to go, which at the same close rate, would give Barber an additional margin of about 1,350 votes. McSally has a lead of 363, and with respect to the 3,200 votes out in Cochise, she generated in the last Cochise vote dump a margin at about a 10% rate, so  at that rate she would get about a 320 margin from the votes left there. 363 + 320 = 683, which is about 667 short of Barber (1350-683 = 667). So the trend line does not look good for her.  

[KCDem]

So at this point, it seems the only way for Democrats to take back the House before the next census is a massive wave. Luckily, massive waves seem to be becoming more and more common.

Waves seem only to be benefiting Republicans. House control is safe Republican for the next century. #100yearmajority #GregWalden

[Torie]

Well according to one number cruncher, the Pub may have a slight advantage in CA-16. The details of his number crunching are not available. Assuming he knows what he is doing, that seat might be the best bet for the Pubs to pick up their 247th seat. Who knew?  If the Pub wins, he had better try to figure out how to become an Hispanic folk hero, if he plans to hang around after 2016.

[Miles]

MD-06 just called for Delaney.

[5280]

Tobin is a bore, and I think McSally is pretty overrated.

McSally isn't a bad looking person though.  Why would they reelected an old guy?

[Senator Cris]

Virginia Senate: Gillespie Concedes to Warner

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yes, McSally is in trouble. Barber closed the gap by about 900 votes on a Pima vote dump (not all in the CD presumably) of 16,000, and there are 24,000 Pima votes left to go, which at the same close rate, would give Barber an additional margin of about 1,350 votes. McSally has a lead of 363, and with respect to the 3,200 votes out in Cochise, she generated in the last Cochise vote dump a margin at about a 10% rate, so  at that rate she would get about a 320 margin from the votes left there. 363 + 320 = 683, which is about 667 short of Barber (1350-683 = 667). So the trend line does not look good for her. 

The rest of Cochise (or most of the rest of Cochise) came in and McSally's up 772. I still think Barber will pull it out, but this'll be within a couple hundred votes.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

nice work.

a few borders stick out, but for the most part this was a national election.

[Torie]

Yes, McSally is in trouble. Barber closed the gap by about 900 votes on a Pima vote dump (not all in the CD presumably) of 16,000, and there are 24,000 Pima votes left to go, which at the same close rate, would give Barber an additional margin of about 1,350 votes. McSally has a lead of 363, and with respect to the 3,200 votes out in Cochise, she generated in the last Cochise vote dump a margin at about a 10% rate, so  at that rate she would get about a 320 margin from the votes left there. 363 + 320 = 683, which is about 667 short of Barber (1350-683 = 667). So the trend line does not look good for her.  

The rest of Cochise (or most of the rest of Cochise) came in and McSally's up 772. I still think Barber will pull it out, but this'll be within a couple hundred votes.

Yes, McSally had a good vote dump (about two thirds of what remained in Cochise, except perhaps for provisional ballots), running quite a bit above the trend line, helping to close much of the gap, but not all of it. Fun finale here, with suspense remaining perhaps until the very last vote dump. Who could ask for anything better?  

[Vega]

Barber is a fighter. I think he'll pull it out.

[free my dawg]

Things don't look good for the chronic masturbator.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Another vote dump and McSally's ahead by 317.

Edit: ANOTHER (I think the rest of Cochise...?) and she's at 509.

[Vega]

How is the Peters/DeMaio even close?

[KCDem]

Updated Colorado results:

Mark Udall        923,210   46.15%
Cory Gardner    967,223   48.35%

...margin of 2.2% and shrinking...

Looks like it's going to be under a 2 point race. Hick now up 3.11 points.

[Matty]

It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.