2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Holmes]

It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.

No, if it worked, he would've won.

[Panda Express]

It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.

I know you're trolling but Udall lost Pueblo County. That's proof Hispanics were taking a siesta on election day

[Matty]

Then why is this race going back into the uncalled column? No way Gardner has won yet. He's up only 45,000.

[Miles]

It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.

I know you're trolling but Udall lost Pueblo County. That's proof Hispanics were taking a siesta on election day

On the SOS site, Udall won Pueblo County by 262 votes.

[Panda Express]

It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.

I know you're trolling but Udall lost Pueblo County. That's proof Hispanics were taking a siesta on election day

On the SOS site, Udall won Pueblo County by 262 votes.

It must have just flipped with the latest numbers today. Well whatever, the point still stands as Oballer won by 14 points in 2012

[cinyc]

I'm probably going to do a bigger post on this when I have time, but here's a precinct-level map of the Alaska Senate election day precinct vote results.  As usual for Alaska precinct-level data, this doesn't reflect any absentee or early votes, which are not broken down by precinct.  A minor candidate supposedly won the Southwest Alaskan bush precinct in yellow.  That will probably be a deep shade of red when the results are made official.



Here's a map of the election day precinct vote results by county equivalent.  Note that I didn't attempt to allocate the absentee and early votes to the county equivalents.  It's too early to do so and there is no reliable way to do so out in the bush, anyway.



Finally, here is the county equivalent swing in the election day precinct vote results from 2008 to 2014.  I measured swing by difference in overall margin between the two candidates running in those years.  Again, I didn't allocate the absentee, early or questioned votes in either year in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison.  Because HD and precinct lines have changed since 2008, this is the only swing map one can make.

[Frodo]

I'm probably going to do a bigger post on this when I have time, but here's a precinct-level map of the Alaska Senate election day precinct vote results.  As usual for Alaska precinct-level data, this doesn't reflect any absentee or early votes, which are not broken down by precinct.  A minor candidate supposedly won the Southwest Alaskan bush precinct in yellow.  That will probably be a deep shade of red when the results are made official.



Here's a map of the election day precinct vote results by county equivalent.  Note that I didn't attempt to allocate the absentee and early votes to the county equivalents.  It's too early to do so and there is no reliable way to do so out in the bush, anyway.



Finally, here is the county equivalent swing in the election day precinct vote results from 2008 to 2014.  I measured swing by difference in overall margin between the two candidates running in those years.  Again, I didn't allocate the absentee, early or questioned votes in either year in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison.  Because HD and precinct lines have changed since 2008, this is the only swing map one can make.

Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct? 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So... Udall lost Jefferson by 120 votes... sigh.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Great work on the Alaska maps, cinyc. I was wondering about the swing from 2008 and hoping someone would make a map. It looks more or less like I expected - swing to Begich in the Native areas, swing to the GOP in the Southeast.

[cinyc]

Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct? 

No.  I don't think that data is easily available, either.  You should be able to find the data for county equivalents on the Census website.  The general rule is that except in the Juneau area, the redder the county equivalent, the more Alaska Native it is.

[Frodo]

Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct?  

No.  I don't think that data is easily available, either.  You should be able to find the data for county equivalents on the Census website.  The general rule is that except in the Juneau area, the redder the county equivalent, the more Alaska Native it is.

That's pretty much what I suspected -that most whites are settled in or around Anchorage and Juneau with the vast hinterlands dominated by native Alaskans.  I just wanted visual proof to see if I was right, whether the racial breakdown corresponds to the vote.  

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct?  

No.  I don't think that data is easily available, either.  You should be able to find the data for county equivalents on the Census website.  The general rule is that except in the Juneau area, the redder the county equivalent, the more Alaska Native it is.

That's pretty much what I suspected -that most whites are settled in or around Anchorage and Juneau with the vast hinterlands dominated by native Alaskans.  I just wanted visual proof to see if I was right, whether the racial breakdown corresponds to the vote.  

here's a quick, crude map I made using the Census DataMapper

[cinyc]

Great work on the Alaska maps, cinyc. I was wondering about the swing from 2008 and hoping someone would make a map. It looks more or less like I expected - swing to Begich in the Native areas, swing to the GOP in the Southeast.

It will be interesting to see if the swing in the Southeast holds of you allocate the early and absentee votes.  Juneau has a lot of remaining absentees.  It might be that Republicans waited until election day to vote.

Here's a chart of the swing for each county equivalent.  Positive numbers are pro-Begich.  Negative numbers are pro-Sullivan.  Sullivan really cleaned up in Mat-Su and the Kenai Peninsula compared to Stevens in 2008.  And there are more votes there than in the bush county equivalents that swung heavily to Begich.  Anchorage swung slightly to Begich.

[Panda Express]

So... Udall lost Jefferson by 120 votes... sigh.

Actually, he just flipped it (winning it by about 600 votes).

So Udall managed to win all three of the suburb counties and still lose by about 2 points. Turnout in Denver was 10% below statewide turnout

[Torie]

Another vote dump and McSally's ahead by 317.

Edit: ANOTHER (I think the rest of Cochise...?) and she's at 509.

McSally seems to be rising from the dead, and now has the edge again.

"Republican Martha McSally’s lead in the closely-contested Congressional District 2 race shrunk to 317 votes Friday night when an additional batch of Pima County early ballots were tabulated.
...
The Pima County Elections Department counted about 16,000 more votes, mostly early ballots late Friday. More than 10,200 of them fell into Congressional District 2.

The latest vote tabulation released Friday evening leaves Pima County with up to 12,000 more votes to count. Those are mostly provisional ballots that have to be verified, some of which will ultimately be disqualified.

Cochise County has another 1,100 provisional ballots to verify and count.

County officials expect to count more ballots and release updated totals Saturday afternoon."

Crunching the numbers from the above data, and what Nathan put up, Barber using the same trend lines closes the gap by 341 votes, assuming all the provisional ballots are accepted as valid, all of which will not be. That's 168 votes short of the finish line for him.



It does appear checking the Cochise County elections website, that all of its votes have been counted (with the last 1,100 provisional ballot vote dump giving McSally a huge boost, bumping her lead up from 317 to 509 per Nathan's reporting).

We might know one way or the other this afternoon whether the Pubs have picked up their 247th seat. At the moment however, the McSally camp must be a lot happier today than it was a couple of days ago.

[KCDem]

So... Udall lost Jefferson by 120 votes... sigh.

Actually, he just flipped it (winning it by about 600 votes).

So Udall managed to win all three of the suburb counties and still lose by about 2 points. Turnout in Denver was 10% below statewide turnout

There are still thousands of ballots to be counted in Denver. So you can't say that yet.

[5280]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html

So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost?  Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.

[Sbane]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html

So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost?  Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.

Yeah, good luck ever winning a presidential election in Colorado again.

[Holmes]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html

So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost?  Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.

Yeah, good luck ever winning a presidential election in Colorado again.

Colorado might favor the Democrats when it comes to the presidential elections, but if they can't win races like this, it's gonna be a problem. The Democrats' inability to get out their voters in this race and others around the country is a catastrophic failure on their part.

[5280]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html

So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost?  Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.

Yeah, good luck ever winning a presidential election in Colorado again.

Ex Californians, I tell you. 

[Holmes]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html

So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost?  Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.

Yeah, good luck ever winning a presidential election in Colorado again.

Ex Californians, I tell you. 

Yeah, and the reason New Hampshire is Democratic is because of those damn Massholes.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's Cohn's succinct explanation + change from 2010 map.

[politicallefty]

Colorado might favor the Democrats when it comes to the presidential elections, but if they can't win races like this, it's gonna be a problem. The Democrats' inability to get out their voters in this race and others around the country is a catastrophic failure on their part.

Udall may have lost and we may also have lost the CO Senate (by a single seat), but Hickenlooper was reelected along with a Democratic Majority in the CO House. Democrats are still running stronger in Colorado than in other states that are widely considered to be more Democratic-leaning (such as PA). I'm disappointed that we didn't do better, but ultimately, Colorado is still in swing-state territory.

[Torie]

In other news, my number crunching projects Ose "cruising" to victory in CA-07 by 216 votes. The late votes just aren't working as well as the Dems hoped so far (at least in CA-07 and AZ-02), except in CA-52, well, in the context of the Pub getting some really bad press at the end.

[Vega]

Shame. I was really hoping that Bera could hold on. He's got to be my favorite Unitarian Universalist elected in the past 10 years.