2014 US Congressional Election Results
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  2014 US Congressional Election Results
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Author Topic: 2014 US Congressional Election Results  (Read 186603 times)
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #1375 on: November 08, 2014, 02:09:57 PM »
« edited: November 08, 2014, 02:19:16 PM by angryGreatness »

AP has called a few House races.


-WA-04 has been called for Dan Newhouse (R), over Clint Didier (R).
-CA-17 has been called for Michael Honda (D), over Ro Khanna (D)
-CA-09 has been called for Jerry McNerney (D), over Tony Amador (R)
-CA-52 has been called for Scott Peters (D), over Carl DeMaio (R)


CA-07, CA-26, CA-16, NY-25, and AZ-02 remain uncalled.
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Vega
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« Reply #1376 on: November 08, 2014, 02:54:12 PM »

-CA-52 has been called for Scott Peters (D), over Carl DeMaio (R)

Hopefully this is the end of DeMaio's career. Filth.
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Torie
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« Reply #1377 on: November 08, 2014, 03:04:02 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2014, 03:06:15 PM by Torie »

In other news, my number crunching projects Ose "cruising" to victory in CA-07 by 216 votes. The late votes just aren't working as well as the Dems hoped so far (at least in CA-07 and AZ-02), except in CA-52, well, in the context of the Pub getting some really bad press at the end.



I did miss CA-09, but when I added it, the 216 projected lead for Ose never changed ... which was -  well - disturbing!  It turns out, that the smaller the CA-07 share of the Sacramento County pie, the higher than Bera percentage margin with respect to the last vote dump, with the two exactly offsetting each other. That was not a satisfactory state of affairs, so I hunted around, and found the CA-07 vote totals before the last vote dump, which allowed me to calculate the actual number of CA-07 votes added from the last VBM vote dump, and it turned out to be a bit smaller share of that particular county vote dump, than its share of all of the votes counted. So that pushed Bera's margin up, and thereby cut Ose's projected lead down to 119. However, that is assuming CA-07's share of the remaining votes is the same as all of the votes counted so far, rather than its a bit lower share of the last VBM vote dump. If you use the lower percentage share number, which would seem more appropriate since it is the same ilk of ballots being counted, it bounces back up to 145.



Fun stuff!  Smiley
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cinyc
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« Reply #1378 on: November 08, 2014, 04:13:15 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2014, 04:55:14 PM by cinyc »

It will be interesting to see if the swing in the Southeast holds of you allocate the early and absentee votes.  Juneau has a lot of remaining absentees.  It might be that Republicans waited until election day to vote.

Here's a chart of the swing for each county equivalent.  Positive numbers are pro-Begich.  Negative numbers are pro-Sullivan.  Sullivan really cleaned up in Mat-Su and the Kenai Peninsula compared to Stevens in 2008.  And there are more votes there than in the bush county equivalents that swung heavily to Begich.  Anchorage swung slightly to Begich.



One note: Petersburg in the chart is for the old Petersburg Census Area.  Petersburg became a borough last year.  The Census Bureau finally allocated the outlying portions of the Census Area that were not included in the borough to Prince of Wales-Hyder some time this year.   Petersburg Borough took part of the Hoonah-Angoon Census area, leaving a triangle between its northern border and Juneau's southern border.  Their 2014 U.S. County shapefile reflects the new boundaries.  Eventually, I'll update the charts and map to reflect this new geography.

I don't think many people live in the Hoonah-Angoon triangler, but they are included in the Petersburg precinct, unless the state changed precinct boundaries to match.  Precincts crossing borough or census area lines isn't unheard of in Alaska, so I doubt they did.  Most of the Kake and all of the Port Alexander precincts were moved to the Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area, including the portion of the Kake precinct that includes the village where you'd expect most people to live.  As with other precincts that cross lines, I will allocate Kake to Prince of Wales-Hyder based on the location of the precinct.  
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1379 on: November 08, 2014, 04:53:36 PM »

The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.

At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
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KCDem
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« Reply #1380 on: November 08, 2014, 05:18:04 PM »

The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.

At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.

One could make the argument that it was his campaign that kept it close. There's really no way to prove one way or other.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1381 on: November 08, 2014, 05:21:20 PM »

The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.

At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.

One could make the argument that it was his campaign that kept it close. There's really no way to prove one way or other.

Not really. His campaign was universally panned across the political spectrum and got him tons of negative press. "Mark Uterus" became a running gag. It was the reason the Denver Post endorsed Gardner.
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KCDem
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« Reply #1382 on: November 08, 2014, 07:27:26 PM »

The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.

At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.

One could make the argument that it was his campaign that kept it close. There's really no way to prove one way or other.

Not really. His campaign was universally panned across the political spectrum and got him tons of negative press. "Mark Uterus" became a running gag. It was the reason the Denver Post endorsed Gardner.

Just because the press lampooned the campaign doesn't mean it was bad. It only seems so because he lost. Granted, he did lose so it wasn't as good as it could have been but saying it's terrible is lazy analysis. The media was sh*tting all over Obama's campaign in 2012 (class warfare) until he won.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1383 on: November 08, 2014, 09:14:00 PM »

Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!
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Vega
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« Reply #1384 on: November 08, 2014, 09:40:28 PM »

Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!

He's to the right of Mike Honda, no?
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #1385 on: November 08, 2014, 09:47:53 PM »

Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!

He's to the right of Mike Honda, no?

Yes. He was the De Facto Republican in this race. I'm legit surprised he did as well as he did.
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Vega
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« Reply #1386 on: November 08, 2014, 10:09:34 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2014, 10:31:34 PM by MW Rep Vega »

Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!

He's to the right of Mike Honda, no?

Yes. He was the De Facto Republican in this race. I'm legit surprised he did as well as he did.

The sad thing is he's probably going to be elected the U.S. House at some point once Honda retires or he carpetbags to an open seat.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1387 on: November 09, 2014, 12:39:17 AM »

-More ballots won't be counted in AZ-02 until Monday. Both sides are preparing to demand a recount.

-Scott Peters' win over Carl DeMaio has grown to 4,771 votes in the most recent counts. There's about 6K-8K votes left to count.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1388 on: November 09, 2014, 01:55:34 AM »



My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 
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KCDem
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« Reply #1389 on: November 09, 2014, 09:44:56 AM »



My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 

Thank you gerrymandering!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1390 on: November 09, 2014, 11:51:34 AM »

No, it would be about this lopsided even sans gerrymandering. But 2012 would have been much closer. The main effect of gerrymandering is to freeze past victories into the map.
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Torie
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« Reply #1391 on: November 09, 2014, 12:57:38 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2014, 04:08:25 PM by Torie »



My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers.  

246 to 249. CA-16, AZ-02 and CA-07 remain in play.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1392 on: November 09, 2014, 02:39:15 PM »

I did miss CA-09, but when I added it, the 216 projected lead for Ose never changed ... which was -  well - disturbing!  It turns out, that the smaller the CA-07 share of the Sacramento County pie, the higher than Bera percentage margin with respect to the last vote dump, with the two exactly offsetting each other. That was not a satisfactory state of affairs, so I hunted around, and found the CA-07 vote totals before the last vote dump, which allowed me to calculate the actual number of CA-07 votes added from the last VBM vote dump, and it turned out to be a bit smaller share of that particular county vote dump, than its share of all of the votes counted.

If I were counting ballots, I would do it on a precinct-by-precinct basis.  Recounts are done on a precinct basis, the challenger even gets to choose the order of precincts recounted.  So you will want all the ballots together.   Hand counts are also done by precinct.

Return envelopes would be easily sorted by precinct, so they would be sorted out even before signature verification is done.

Even if the ballots have the ballot type coded on them, manual auditing would be easier.  If you have a stack of 87 ballots (presumably hand counted) if they were all from one precinct, you could run them through the counting machine and check whether the ballot count for the precinct increased by 87, and the results were plausible.  Run a mix and you can't be sure whether, the single Romney vote in a 90% black precinct isn't anomalous.   But if that precinct get 75 Romney votes you know something is wrong.

But they might take all the ballots from one batch of envelopes, verify them all and run them through precinct by precinct.

But there could still be geographic biases.  If a single batch came from a particular post office branch, then it will show up in the distribution of precincts of the ballots, since most voters will mail at a nearer post office rather than a further one.

And there could also be differences connected to political leaning.  Late arriving ballots are tending to be more Democratic, than election-day and earlier returned ballots.   This is true, even though mail voters tend to be more Republican.

Republicans tend to plan better, and have more stable living conditions.   Democrats tend to procrastinate, and may have been waiting to mail their ballot until they could also make a bill payment and not have the check bounce.

CA-6 the district in the city of Sacramento (or at least more inside) is more Democratic.   So it would be reasonable to expect that a larger share of the last-arriving ballots compared to other ballots to be from CA-6 rather than CA-7.

There have been a couple of interesting cases where the late-arriving ballots didn't match this pattern.  The late arriving ballots from Madera County were stronger for Tacherra than the earlier votes.

And in San Diego, the late-arriving ballots have been much more strongly for Peters (7% difference)  This indicates that late deciders broke based on their awareness of the sexual harassment allegations.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1393 on: November 09, 2014, 03:17:58 PM »



My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 

246 to 249. CA-16, AZ-07 and CA-07 remain in play.

I know, but I expect the GOP to lose at least one of those three you mentioned. 
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #1394 on: November 09, 2014, 05:01:14 PM »

-CA-52 has been called for Scott Peters (D), over Carl DeMaio (R)

Hopefully this is the end of DeMaio's career. Filth.

QFT
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Vega
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« Reply #1395 on: November 09, 2014, 06:10:03 PM »

Are there still more votes to count in NY-25?
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cinyc
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« Reply #1396 on: November 09, 2014, 09:42:47 PM »

Are there still more votes to count in NY-25?

Yes.  Domestic absentees can trickle in until Tuesday and will be counted on Wednesday.  I'm also not sure if they have counted all of the provisional ballots yet. 

Unfortunately, Slaughter isn't going to get slaughtered here, though.  Her margin is relatively comfortable.
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MarkUterus
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« Reply #1397 on: November 10, 2014, 01:31:32 AM »

Well, we got Maffei by 20 points. That was good enough for me, even if getting Slaughter as well would have been even better... I wonder if Maggie Brooks would have won in a midterm or if the under the radar nature of Assini's campaign was what helped him get so close to such a massive upset.
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jfern
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« Reply #1398 on: November 10, 2014, 01:39:56 AM »

Well, we got Maffei by 20 points. That was good enough for me, even if getting Slaughter as well would have been even better... I wonder if Maggie Brooks would have won in a midterm or if the under the radar nature of Assini's campaign was what helped him get so close to such a massive upset.

LOL, I'm fine with conservadems losing D+5 districts by 20 points. A real Democrat will win next time. I'm glad Slaughter survived.
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MarkUterus
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« Reply #1399 on: November 10, 2014, 01:49:48 AM »

Maffei is a conservadem? On what planet? Be careful what you wish for. Katko won by 20 points and he won every municipality in the district (aside from Syracuse and DeWitt). If he could beat Dan Maffei by 20, he's going to be a tough target next cycle.
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