2014 US Congressional Election Results

[windjammer]

50 000 ballots need to be counted in Alaska
Considering Sullivan has a 8000 votes lead, Begich would have to win 58% of these ballots: impossible.

[Torie]

Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it.  Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.

CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.

So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.

Addendum: Oh, wait a minute! I forgot that Tacherra had a 741 vote lead!  Yes, Costa is expected to generate a lead out of the remaining ballots of 651 (assuming the remaining ballots break like the ones counted to date (don't know if the last vote dump was more Dem than the election day counted votes, because I can't find the details of the last vote dump numbers), leaving him 90 votes short. So this race remains a tossup more or less. My bad.

[J. J.]

Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it.  Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.

CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.

So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.

The 2 LA districts and one of those three.  247? 

[Torie]

Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it.  Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.

CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.

So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.

The 2 LA districts and one of those three.  247?  

Yes, but now I see that CA-16 is in fact still a tossup (see addendum to my above post). I might be able to refine it if I had the last vote dump numbers, but on top of that the 4,000 remaining ballots in CA-16 in Fresno County is just an estimate (nobody knows), and I did not subtract out the expected under and over votes, leaving fewer votes that will affect the relative totals than the absolute number of ballots to be counted, so the say 90-110 vote margin for the Pub is too tiny really given the unknowns, to label the race anything but a total tossup at present based on what I know.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looks like we lost all the most Republican leaning districts. UT-4 (R+16), WV-3 (R+14) NC-7 (R+12) and GA-12 (R+9) The most Republican seat the Dems hold is now MN-7 which is R+6. I'll skip passing a value judgement on that, but it makes sense. Why would Republican voters vote for a Democrat or vice versa?

The Democrats did pick up FL-02, which is R+6.

[Torie]

Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.

[cinyc]

Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.

According to the Arizona Elections Results Website, McSally is now up by 133.  This is supposedly with everything in but a handful of provisional ballots in Pima County, 200-250 countywide which all won't be in the district.

[Torie]

Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.

According to the Arizona Elections Results Website, McSally is now up by 133.  This is supposedly with everything in but a handful of provisional ballots in Pima County, 200-250 countywide which all won't be in the district.

Then it is over, unless a recount uncovers something. So the Pubs have very probably bagged their 247th seat, with about a 50% chance of getting to 248.

[Vega]

Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.

[Matty]

When will they start counting the rest of the alaska ballots?

[Torie]

Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.

Blame that pseudo  independent redistricting commissioner McNulty, in reality a mole working for the Democrats, who fashioned a Democratic gerrymander in AZ. She was worried that the Democrats needed a bit more help in AZ-01, more so than in AZ-02, and at the very end of the redistricting process, moved some Dem strength from AZ-02 to AZ-01, maybe  about half a percentage point. If she had not done that, Barber would have been re-elected. Dummymander! Yes, indeed, the irony is just delicious.

[Maxwell]

50 000 ballots need to be counted in Alaska
Considering Sullivan has a 8000 votes lead, Begich would have to win 58% of these ballots: impossible.

Yea Begich probably should've just conceded, but I suppose it doesn't really matter.

[cinyc]

When will they start counting the rest of the alaska ballots?

They are counting the early and absentee votes right now.  Some regional elections centers have been counting since 1PM Eastern/9AM local.  Anchorage has been counting since 5PM Eastern.  I wouldn't expect to have any results until at least 9PM Eastern, which is 5PM Alaska time, unless some partial count leaks out earlier.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.

Blame that pseudo independent independent redistricting commissioner McNulty, in reality a mole working for the Democrats, who fashioned a Democratic gerrymander in AZ. She was worried that the Democrats needed a bit more help in AZ-01, more so than in AZ-02, and at the very end of the redistricting process, moved some Dem strength from AZ-02 to AZ-01, maybe  about half a percentage point. If she had not done that, Barber would have been re-elected. Dummymander! Yes, indeed, the irony is just delicious.

The fact that the commission didn't do what the Republicans wanted doesn't make Mathias a Democratic mole.

[Wisconsin+17]

The fact that she attempted to gerrymander in favor of the Democrats is.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

:lol:

Hilarious. :b:

[Vega]

Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.

Blame that pseudo independent independent redistricting commissioner McNulty, in reality a mole working for the Democrats, who fashioned a Democratic gerrymander in AZ. She was worried that the Democrats needed a bit more help in AZ-01, more so than in AZ-02, and at the very end of the redistricting process, moved some Dem strength from AZ-02 to AZ-01, maybe  about half a percentage point. If she had not done that, Barber would have been re-elected. Dummymander! Yes, indeed, the irony is just delicious.

Interesting.... a Dummymander indeed.

Also, do you think that you could send me that vote count doc. you post? Thanks!

[mypalfish]

Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen  5m5 minutes ago
#AKSen updated count:
Begich, Mark DEM 106718 45.12%
Sullivan, Dan REP 115502 48.83%

[cinyc]

Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen  5m5 minutes ago
#AKSen updated count:
Begich, Mark DEM 106718 45.12%
Sullivan, Dan REP 115502 48.83%

Sullivan actually increased his lead from 8,149 to 8,784.

[mypalfish]

[Matty]

15,200 votes have been counted today. Begich had a net gain of only 78 votes.

[memphis]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

[Miles]

^ There's a running conspiracy theory at RedRacingHorses that Colleen Mathis, one of the commissioners that drew that AZ map, was in league with Democrats; she purportedly pushed the commission to draw a D-friendly map. They call the AZ map the 'Mathismander.'

[Lief 🗽]

Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.

[Holmes]

Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.

They want it all.

[JerryArkansas]

Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MStoUfrsCig