2014 US Congressional Election Results

[memphis]

Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.

Even when they draw maps that lean Republican. Out of nine seats, just two of them have D+x PVIs.

[jimrtex]

^ There's a running conspiracy theory at RedRacingHorses that Colleen Mathis, one of the commissioners that drew that AZ map, was in league with Democrats; she purportedly pushed the commission to draw a D-friendly map. They call the AZ map the 'Mathismander.'

The commission  had a Republican counsel and a Democratic counsel.  The Republican counsel was chosen on a 3-2 vote by the two Democratic commissioners and the independent sleeper agent.

If Arizona keeps its commission it should expand its membership and require concurrent majorities among the Republican, Democratic, and other members.  It should be required to comply with open meeting laws, and the competitive districts provision should be jettisoned.  It is took subject to cheating, and most adjustments to make districts more competitive violate equal protection.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There were serious problems with the independent commission in AZ.

[jimrtex]

Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it.  Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.

CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.

So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.

Addendum: Oh, wait a minute! I forgot that Tacherra had a 741 vote lead!  Yes, Costa is expected to generate a lead out of the remaining ballots of 651 (assuming the remaining ballots break like the ones counted to date (don't know if the last vote dump was more Dem than the election day counted votes, because I can't find the details of the last vote dump numbers), leaving him 90 votes short. So this race remains a tossup more or less. My bad.

There has been one vote dump in Fresno County (last Friday).  The next is scheduled for Wednesday the 12th at 3 pm PST.

Election night was 16235:9750 or 62.48% Costa.
The update was 1884:3581 or 65.53% Costa.

There are 10,300 VBM and 10,100 provisional ballots yet to be counted.

22.7% of county votes are in CA-16.  22.5% of mail ballots returned are in CA-16, but 30.4% of ballots sent out.  The return rate was much worse in CA-16, than the other districts.

Ballots Issued and Returned by District (PDF)

I don't know whether the returned includes the final 10,000 ballots or not.

But if we assume 22.7% x (20,400 outstanding) x 31.06% (Costa plurality in first dump) = 1438 Costa margin.

Provisional votes include:

(1) First federal election, but voter doesn't have ID.

Probably not too many of these.

(2) VBM person appears in person.   They either did not receive their ballot, the lost it, or they spoiled it and did not bring it with them.  If the mail ballot showed up by election day, then it is counted.  The reason the provisional ballots are counted last to make sure there wasn't a VBM ballot.

It is possible that these ballots skew differently than the late-arriving VBM ballots.  A Republican might be more likely to recognize that their ballot might not arrive in time, and instead go to the polls.  But a Democrat could be more likely to lose their ballot.  And a Democrat might be more likely to show up without their unvoted mail ballot.  And some of the provisional ballots won't count, since the mail ballot did arrive.

(3) Voter has a new address in the county, but did not re-register.  These provisional ballots will be counted if the signature at the polls matches the signature on the registration record.

Madera County has 973 provisional ballots remaining.  They don't anticipate releasing any updates prior to just before the results have to be certified (December 5).  Madera County is split between two CDs.

Merced County has not updated their results from election night - the SOS website has more recent results.  The number of votes in the update, somewhat matches the number of VBM mail ballots that were reported to the SOS.  So I suspect they are in a situation similar to Madera.

Finishing up the VBM in Fresno County should put the result into a virtual tie.

The number of provisional between Merced and Madera (CA-16) is similar to the provisionals for Fresno (CA-16).   Results so far Fresno 63.01% Costa vs. Merced+Madera 58.57%.

Merced and Madera are exceptions to the late-counted votes being more favorable to the Democratic candidate.  I think we could still a result within 200 votes (50.1% to 49.9%).

[Matty]

Out of roughly 20,000 ballots counted today, Begich only made up 238 votes.

[Torie]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

[Nichlemn]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

Gerrymandering doesn't necessarily have to give you strong districts, only more opportunities than you would have otherwise had. Arizona's median district (AZ-01) was won by Romney 50-48, but he won statewide 53-44.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Arizona map has a slight partisan effect (why deny what's clearly true?) but is saintly compared to the average. Whinging about it thus lacks dignity.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Funny how none of the Republicans here were whining about biased commissions when Christie essentially forced a Republican tie-breaker upon NJ's redistrictong commission by threatening to withdraw the original independent tie-breaker's research grant if he didn't resign from the commission.

Even if the "Mathiasmander" conspiracy-theory is somehow true, who cares?  Republicans won most of the redistricting wars and should be thanking their lucky stars that independent redistrictong commissions exist because otherwise the Democrats would've obliterated them in California.  You guys lost in Illinois and Arizona (and arguably CT) and got better maps that either leaned Republican or were better than you should've gotten in CA, CO, WA, WI, NE, KS, MO, MI, OH, TN, AR, TX, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, WV, NJ, PA, NY, and arguably LA, MN, and IN.  

TL; DR: Republicans can cry me a river regarding Arizona, whether Mathias was a Democrat or not.  They won or got a better result than they would with truly non-partisan redistricting almost everywhere else along with wasted opportunties by Democrats in AR, WV, and MD.

[Miles]

The Republican in NY-25 just conceded.

After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.

[IceSpear]

The Republican in NY-25 just conceded.

After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.

Why? It's not like she was the only almost (or actual) freak upset. 36% turnout, GOP wave, and Cuomo's reverse coattails is a nasty combination. She'll be fine in 2016. Unless you mean due to age, in which case I kind of agree.

[memphis]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

In the 2012 election Obama won nationally by 3.86% He lost AZ-1 by 2.5%, AZ-2 by 1.5%. These are not in any way Democratic districts. They're not safe Republican seats either, granted. That is rather the entire point of having an independent commission draw the districts. Obama did win AZ-9, so if you want to to say that a statewide result in which the Democratic candidate wins 44% of the popular vote and 33% of Congressional Districts suggests a phantom Democratic gerrymander, that's your prerogative. But it puts you in JJ territory.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections#

[Torie]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

In the 2012 election Obama won nationally by 3.86% He lost AZ-1 by 2.5%, AZ-2 by 1.5%. These are not in any way Democratic districts. They're not safe Republican seats either, granted. That is rather the entire point of having an independent commission draw the districts. Obama did win AZ-9, so if you want to to say that a statewide result in which the Democratic candidate wins 44% of the popular vote and 33% of Congressional Districts suggests a phantom Democratic gerrymander, that's your prerogative. But it puts you in JJ territory.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections#

Your'e such a sweetheart Memphis. I didn't say the seats were not competitive. What I said was that it took a Dem gerrymander to make them so, and since the Dems were greedy, and wanted two competitive CD's (the 3rd seat they called "competitive," but that was just for show - fooling no one), they jiggled stuff around and well, screwed it up a bit (it was clear to me then that they were making a mistake, but that was in the Gifford's era, so perhaps that influenced them). Thanks so much for listening.

[DrScholl]

If you are going to be critical, at least know what you are talking about. The portions of the former AZ-8 that were moved to AZ-1 are Republican-leaning areas, areas that Kirkpatrick lost by double digits, so I highly doubt Barber would have been saved by those precincts.

Second, the commission allows for competitiveness to be taken into account and that is just how they drew the map.

[Torie]

If you are going to be critical, at least know what you are talking about. The portions of the former AZ-8 that were moved to AZ-1 are Republican-leaning areas, areas that Kirkpatrick lost by double digits, so I highly doubt Barber would have been saved by those precincts.

Second, the commission allows for competitiveness to be taken into account and that is just how they drew the map.

Did you mean from AZ-02 to AZ-01?  Maybe that is the fail of communication here? Or is the former AZZ-08 now AZ-02? If so, I will check back on the AZ redistricting thread, and get back to you. No need to stick the knife in. That is just political data, no more, no less. It is what it is.

[DrScholl]

Territory from the former AZ-8 was moved from AZ-1 and not included in the new AZ-2.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Republican in NY-25 just conceded.

After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.

I think the reason NY-25 was so close was because Monroe County voted for Astorino, and general over performance upstate. I don't think that will drag into 2016, but they have to be careful, losing almost 3 D's in upstate NY is not good.

[Sbane]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

Inflated, but not inflated that much. A R+3 district is still a pure tossup, maybe just slightly Republican even after accounting for McCain's overperformance. So we have four strong Republican districts, two pure tossups, one slightly Democratic district and two Democratic districts. How is that not a fair map?

Also, Romney won both AZ-1 and AZ-2 while losing by 4 points. So it is charitable to say they are tossups. Probably closer to lean Republican.

[memphis]

It says a lot about the mental state of Republican party leaders when obscene gerrymanders like Ohio are considered to be the norm and a non-partisan commission map, which nonetheless allowed Romney to win a higher percentage of districts than he did the popular vote, is considered a Democratic gerrymander because there were seats, which although Obama did not win in either of his comfortable victories, which a Democrat could plausibly win. For the GOP, anything that is not an absurd Republican octopus gerrymander must be a Democratic gerrymander. UnInksing believable.

[Sbane]

http://sacresults.e-cers.com/resultsSW.aspx?type=CON&map=MPRC

Bera takes the lead. It's basically over with only 19,000 ballots left to count in the entire county (no way to know how many from CA-7) and 9,000 of those being provisionals.

[publicunofficial]

Assuming Costa holds on, that's 10 straight cycles Republicans have failed to knock-off a California Democratic incumbent. And in 2016, they'll be on defense in CA-10, CA-21, and CA-25 more than going on offense.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The Arizona map has a slight partisan effect (why deny what's clearly true?) but is saintly compared to the average. Whinging about it thus lacks dignity.

I have complained about all the gerrymanders, and I would assume in proportion to the degree of their horridness, and none of which more so then right here in NC. The thing about AZ and NJ (which I was not familiar with but considering Christie that doesn't surprise me), is that they are commissions and therefore more is to be expected from them then a partisan legislature.

[Vosem]

House Democrats really need to send Jerry Brown some kind of present -- his popularity and successful governance was very likely what saved the close Democratic House seats in CA. At some point after he is gone, the dam will break.

The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.

[jimrtex]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

Inflated, but not inflated that much. A R+3 district is still a pure tossup, maybe just slightly Republican even after accounting for McCain's overperformance. So we have four strong Republican districts, two pure tossups, one slightly Democratic district and two Democratic districts. How is that not a fair map?

The way to gerrymander is to pack your opponents into some districts, while giving your districts a slight advantage.

Now imagine you have a district that is perhaps 53% R, compact and formed from natural communities, such as cities or counties.  You decide to make it more "competitive."

How do you do this, you move Democrats in, and Republicans out.  But switching areas that
are 53% Democratic and 47% Republican is tedious and takes a lot of switches, even though the political similarity suggest a greater community of interest.

So instead you grab a small 80% chunk of Democrats and expel some Republicans to another district that is already overwhelmingly Republican.

But you overlook the fact that the measurement of voters in the 80% Democratic area was in a midterm election, and perhaps against a weak candidate (think of the Ohio gubernatorial race, where a somewhat unpopular incumbent in an extremely competitive state, blew out his Democratic opponent by 30%).   Or maybe the statewide candidate happened to be from the area and ran a couple of percentage points above the partisan trend in the area.

Didn't the commission systematically underpopulate the competitive legislative districts in Arizona?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Out of roughly 20,000 ballots counted today, Begich only made up 238 votes.

Does that include the previous 15,000 or is this another whole group of 20,000.

If yes, Begich would need ot win by 68%-32% amongst those remaining votes. If not, he would need to win by 65%-35% to overtake Sullivan. I know Fox called it this morning.