2014 US Congressional Election Results
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  2014 US Congressional Election Results
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Author Topic: 2014 US Congressional Election Results  (Read 186578 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #1475 on: November 12, 2014, 11:32:12 PM »

It says a lot about the mental state of Republican party leaders when obscene gerrymanders like Ohio are considered to be the norm and a non-partisan commission map, which nonetheless allowed Romney to win a higher percentage of districts than he did the popular vote, is considered a Democratic gerrymander because there were seats, which although Obama did not win in either of his comfortable victories, which a Democrat could plausibly win. For the GOP, anything that is not an absurd Republican octopus gerrymander must be a Democratic gerrymander. UnInksing believable.
Romney was not running for Congress in Arizona.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1476 on: November 12, 2014, 11:46:18 PM »

Costa takes an 88-vote lead CA-16 based on the latest dump from Fresno County.

Most of the votes outstanding are provisional ballots:

Fresno 10,700.  With about 22% of votes in the county from CA-16, this would make 2430 for CA-16.  If Costa takes 65%, that is a gain of +730.

Madera 973, with 64% of the vote in CA-16, this is around 619 in CA-16.  If Tacherra takes 67% that is -210.

Merced 1670, all in CA-16.  If Tacherra takes 56% that is -200.

So around +320 net for Costa.   This assumes provisional ballots will all be counted (after all they are call 'provisional' for a reason), and have a distribution similar to the late counted ballots.   If would take around a 9% swing towards Tacherra to tie it up.
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Sbane
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« Reply #1477 on: November 13, 2014, 12:26:49 AM »

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves Roll Eyes

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

Inflated, but not inflated that much. A R+3 district is still a pure tossup, maybe just slightly Republican even after accounting for McCain's overperformance. So we have four strong Republican districts, two pure tossups, one slightly Democratic district and two Democratic districts. How is that not a fair map?
The way to gerrymander is to pack your opponents into some districts, while giving your districts a slight advantage.

Now imagine you have a district that is perhaps 53% R, compact and formed from natural communities, such as cities or counties.  You decide to make it more "competitive."

How do you do this, you move Democrats in, and Republicans out.  But switching areas that
are 53% Democratic and 47% Republican is tedious and takes a lot of switches, even though the political similarity suggest a greater community of interest.

So instead you grab a small 80% chunk of Democrats and expel some Republicans to another district that is already overwhelmingly Republican.

But you overlook the fact that the measurement of voters in the 80% Democratic area was in a midterm election, and perhaps against a weak candidate (think of the Ohio gubernatorial race, where a somewhat unpopular incumbent in an extremely competitive state, blew out his Democratic opponent by 30%).   Or maybe the statewide candidate happened to be from the area and ran a couple of percentage points above the partisan trend in the area.

Didn't the commission systematically underpopulate the competitive legislative districts in Arizona?

None of the congressional districts save AZ-9 could be considered to be gerrymandered, and even there the justification for that is competitiveness. The republicans wanted to shove more of Tucson, including white liberal areas, into Grijalva's district so they could take over the 2nd (formerly the 8th). Now that would have been a partisan gerrymander.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1478 on: November 13, 2014, 01:02:02 AM »

House Democrats really need to send Jerry Brown some kind of present -- his popularity and successful governance was very likely what saved the close Democratic House seats in CA. At some point after he is gone, the dam will break.

The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.

Brown had almost no effect downballot, as Democrats lost Assembly seats and a state Senate seat. There was little interest in the Governor's race, because Brown was safe, so his presence didn't drive much turnout. Even when he's gone, Democrats will still win.
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« Reply #1479 on: November 13, 2014, 01:35:41 AM »

The redistricting systems that Arizona, New Jersey, and Washington use are completely broken and just change the way gerrymandering is done.

The idea of having a non-partisan tie breaker is stupid, because non-partisans don't really exist. Democrats made a competitive map (Which could easily be a 7-2 GOP map) in AZ with the help of a "neutral" tie-breaker, and Republicans in WA and NJ created incumbent protection maps with their "Neutral" tie-breakers that only serve to preserve the GOP majority (WA-08 and NJ-03 are awfully drawn districts). I expect more Republicans to implement this system so they can claim to be fixing gerrymandering.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1480 on: November 13, 2014, 02:55:47 AM »

An interesting factoid I just noticed: Shaheen got 51.6% in both 2008 and 2014, a high turnout Democratic wave and a low turnout Republican wave. Go figure.
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Sbane
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« Reply #1481 on: November 13, 2014, 07:04:04 AM »

House Democrats really need to send Jerry Brown some kind of present -- his popularity and successful governance was very likely what saved the close Democratic House seats in CA. At some point after he is gone, the dam will break.

The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.

Actually, most Democrats ran way behind Brown. Congressional candidates maybe won the state by 10-12 points and state legislators by even less than that. Candidates like Bera and Ruiz won because they are good candidates. Brownley and Baca, not so much.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1482 on: November 13, 2014, 07:27:38 AM »

Well, Cresent Hardy ran way behind Sandoval, but I think we can all agree Hardy owes his victory to Sandoval's landslide. What happened in CA is a less extreme version of the same phenomenon; the closest Democratic victories took place because of Democratic landslides and Republican uncompetitiveness at the top of the ballot. Even if Brown had been unpopular, of course, he and the other statewide Democrats would still probably have won, but he'd certainly have cost House Democrats a few points, and that would have been enough to doom many of them.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1483 on: November 13, 2014, 09:09:55 AM »

Out of roughly 20,000 ballots counted today, Begich only made up 238 votes.

Does that include the previous 15,000 or is this another whole group of 20,000.

If yes, Begich would need ot win by 68%-32% amongst those remaining votes. If not, he would need to win by 65%-35% to overtake Sullivan. I know Fox called it this morning.

AP called it for Sullivan as well. 
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rbt48
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« Reply #1484 on: November 13, 2014, 11:09:26 PM »

Has anyone seen a national compilation of House races by party as yet?

I'd guess that it is something like 51-R, 48-D.
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memphis
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« Reply #1485 on: November 13, 2014, 11:45:07 PM »

Has anyone seen a national compilation of House races by party as yet?

I'd guess that it is something like 51-R, 48-D.
The spread is quite a bit bigger than that.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results/house
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SPC
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« Reply #1486 on: November 14, 2014, 12:11:58 AM »

So Republicans won the median seat by 15% in a year where they won nationally by 8%, so I guess 2012 was not an anomaly in establishing that Democrats would need to win nationally by 7% in order to take the House.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1487 on: November 14, 2014, 08:43:26 AM »

Does anyone know when the last state will certify their election results, so I can start working on my 2014 turnout charts ?

Even better would be a list with certification dates from all states.

...

From what I have found out so far, CA only certifies its election results on Dec. 12 - which could be the state where it takes longest.

Slightly before Christmas, the Census Bureau will then release the Mid-2014 state population estimates and after New Year they will release the 18+ population by state. At which point I can finalize my 2014 turnout charts. I will use these new 2014 estimates and project them to November and will calculate turnout based on VAP (voting age population) and VEP (voting eligible population), by using the 2013 American Community Survey data for non-citizens older than 18.

Prof. Michael McDonald did the same, but he's using old data - which means my charts will be closer to reality then.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1488 on: November 14, 2014, 05:17:35 PM »

So, Tacherra actually gained on the last update -- a net of 11 votes. Costa now leads by 75 votes.
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Vega
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« Reply #1489 on: November 14, 2014, 05:34:33 PM »

So, Tacherra actually gained on the last update -- a net of 11 votes. Costa now leads by 75 votes.

I'm shaking in my boots.
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morgieb
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« Reply #1490 on: November 14, 2014, 06:59:00 PM »

For some reason I hope Tacherra wins.
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Vega
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« Reply #1491 on: November 14, 2014, 09:20:37 PM »

Any reason why Politico hasn't update their vote totals in the CA districts?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1492 on: November 14, 2014, 09:54:08 PM »

So, Tacherra actually gained on the last update -- a net of 11 votes. Costa now leads by 75 votes.
That was a 77:66 minidump from Merced (and slightly weaker at 53.8%, than previous votes).

Then Fresno had a 1020:395 dump for Costa.  72,1% is his best result yet.  I think we are getting into the provisionals,

A curious happening in the AZ-2 race.  There was also a special school board election on a separate ballot.  The original ballot instructions said to vote for not more than 3, when they should have said not more than 2.  So new ballots were sent out, with corrected instructions, and voters were told they could vote the new ballot.

Because of the mixup, and to make sure whether voters sent in a second ballot, the school board ballots were set aside.  It turns out that a bunch of voters put both ballots in the school district ballot envelope.   Fortunately, it was in a Republican leaning area (Green Valley) and it added +23 to McSally's lead.

There are about 750 provisional ballots in Pima County which were determined to be invalid.   So that race will likely end up in court.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1493 on: November 15, 2014, 02:00:51 PM »

CA-07 is now closer than CA-16, but both look pretty good for the Democrats.

Bera's lead has dropped a bit to 697 votes. Sacramento County as a whole has 2000 VBM and 11,000 provisional ballots remaining.

Costa's has opened up a 700 vote lead, with only provisionals left in his district. Heavily Republican Madera County has 973 provisionals to count and Republican-leaning (for this race) Merced County has 1512. Fresno County has 8500 to count, although many of those may not be in CA-16.

I think things look pretty good there, which will likely mean Congressional Democrats will be coming out of California +1, up to a 39-14 margin for the state. I don't think that bodes well for Republicans in 2016, when Democrats will almost assuredly be on the offensive with presidential turnout. CA-21 should be a top target for the national party and CA-10 and CA-25 should be secondary targets.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #1494 on: November 15, 2014, 02:04:42 PM »

Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.
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Vega
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« Reply #1495 on: November 15, 2014, 05:13:55 PM »

Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.

Federally it is. Democrats lost a mess of State Legislature seats.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #1496 on: November 15, 2014, 06:16:41 PM »

Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.

Federally it is. Democrats lost a mess of State Legislature seats.

Three Assembly seats for a new 52-28 majority and a Senate seat for a new 27-13 majority??
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1497 on: November 15, 2014, 06:21:46 PM »

Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.

Federally it is. Democrats lost a mess of State Legislature seats.

Three Assembly seats for a new 52-28 majority and a Senate seat for a new 27-13 majority??

Not as many as I thought, but still.
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Miles
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« Reply #1498 on: November 16, 2014, 03:33:05 PM »

WV House vote by county:



I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.

If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (he got 61% there).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1499 on: November 16, 2014, 03:36:02 PM »

WV House vote by county:



I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.

If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (he got 61% there).

Pretty amazing that Mooney won the 2nd with that map.
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