2014 US Congressional Election Results

[publicunofficial]

Patrick Murphy has been declared the winner in FL-18. Not a surprise, but the fact that it was declared so quickly is a good sign for Dems in FL.

[publicunofficial]

Grimes finished her concession speech, sounds like we haven't seen the last of her.

[publicunofficial]

MSNBC says Brown is done in NH

[publicunofficial]

NYT is declaring Graham the winner in FL-02

[publicunofficial]

House Elections:

WA-04 and CA-25 are R-on-R races, so might as well shift them to the GOP hold column.

Same with CA-17 for the Democrats.

[publicunofficial]

Nolan declared winner over Mills in MN-08.

[publicunofficial]

What in the world is going on in CA-16? Its D+8!

Turns out a district sandwiched between CA-10 and CA-21 gives Democrats the same problem that they suffer there. Latino turnout is abysmal.

Also Jim Costa, like Dan Maffei, is an unneeded Blue Dog who clung to the middle so closely that he has pleased no one. He's also a massive energy company shill, so good riddance if he loses.

At this point, the Democrats have lost so much that losing Costa is all positive to me.

[publicunofficial]

Few races were close in the end. NH, VA, NC, maybe AK. Beyond that it's 5+ point wins. Similar to 2012 with opposite parties actually. Many house seats were tight though, since Democrats over performed in swing districts relative to blue districts, while doing terrible in both, making both types of seat close.

I think one silver lining is that unlike with most waves, most of the elections Democrats ended up loosing were decently close, especially in the House.


UT-04, IA-01, NH-01, TX-23, IL-10, FL-26 and likely CA-16, CA-07, CA-52, NV-04, and AZ-02 all had Democratic candidates loosing with 48% or less. ME-02, NY-01, GA-12, WV-02, and CO-06 were also decently close contests. Unlike 2010, we have a good chance at winning back a lot of these seats in 2016. We might even get 2nd chances in seats like FL-13, CA-25, CA-10, CA-21, VA-10, and IA-03.

[publicunofficial]

McSally is now ahead of Barber by less than 100 votes.

[publicunofficial]

Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?

Something like 60% from what I remember.

[publicunofficial]

-AP has (finally) called the MD-06 race for John Delaney.

-John Chabot has conceded in CA-31, Pete Aguilar gives Dems their 3rd House pick-up

-Scott Peters has pulled ahead of Carl DeMaio.
Current tally:
Scott Peters (D) - 50.27% - 78,837
Carl DeMaio (R) - 49.73% - 77,976

-Doug Ose's lead against Ami Bera has dropped to 2183 votes (1.72%, on election night it was 2.74%). If the rest of the late votes follow the current trend, Bera will end up winning with room to spare, similar to the situation in AZ-2 and CA-16.


Overall, it looks like the 114th Congress will be 246 R - 189 D in the House, barring something unexpected in the Louisiana runoffs.

[publicunofficial]

AP has called a few House races.


-WA-04 has been called for Dan Newhouse (R), over Clint Didier (R).
-CA-17 has been called for Michael Honda (D), over Ro Khanna (D)
-CA-09 has been called for Jerry McNerney (D), over Tony Amador (R)
-CA-52 has been called for Scott Peters (D), over Carl DeMaio (R)


CA-07, CA-26, CA-16, NY-25, and AZ-02 remain uncalled.

[publicunofficial]

-More ballots won't be counted in AZ-02 until Monday. Both sides are preparing to demand a recount.

-Scott Peters' win over Carl DeMaio has grown to 4,771 votes in the most recent counts. There's about 6K-8K votes left to count.

[publicunofficial]

Assuming Costa holds on, that's 10 straight cycles Republicans have failed to knock-off a California Democratic incumbent. And in 2016, they'll be on defense in CA-10, CA-21, and CA-25 more than going on offense.

[publicunofficial]

The redistricting systems that Arizona, New Jersey, and Washington use are completely broken and just change the way gerrymandering is done.

The idea of having a non-partisan tie breaker is stupid, because non-partisans don't really exist. Democrats made a competitive map (Which could easily be a 7-2 GOP map) in AZ with the help of a "neutral" tie-breaker, and Republicans in WA and NJ created incumbent protection maps with their "Neutral" tie-breakers that only serve to preserve the GOP majority (WA-08 and NJ-03 are awfully drawn districts). I expect more Republicans to implement this system so they can claim to be fixing gerrymandering.

[publicunofficial]

^ Yeah, I agree.

I could be wrong, but my guess is that the third parties hurt Casey more; there were several counties where the two-party share summed to less than 90% of the vote.

Casey won Kanawha 53/38 but was in the mid/low-30s in most pandhandle counties.

If Casey had got a bit higher turnout from the panhandle counties, he would've won. He's another candidate who should try again in 2016.

[publicunofficial]

It makes some sense though -- Lankford's opponent was a state legislator, while Inhofe's was just a Some Dude.

Also incumbents tend to better than new faces.

[publicunofficial]

Also doesn't help that Trent Franks was unopposed, and the other 3 Republican incumbents blew their competition out of the water, driving up the overall Republican vote share.

Seriously, the fact that Republicans think the Arizona map is such an affront to democracy over any other map is so hypocritical and blind that it blows my mind.