2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Frodo]

GA12 is gone for the Dems -perhaps forever.  

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R.I.P. John Barrow. This is a bad night for Democrats.

Potentially the end of the Blue Dog Coalition too.  

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At this rate, could Republicans reach that 245 seat majority in the House?  If they could take out John Barrow by double digits...    

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I think this is turnout failure. People in VA thought Warner would win and didn't turn out.

All the crowing by liberals and Democrats (supposedly so well-informed) here about Mark Warner's (and John Barrow's) invincibility in the run-up to this election probably didn't help either.

A lot of you have eggs and crow-feathers on your faces....    

[Frodo]

Unfortunately for the country, a GOP Senate means massive gridlock and possibly wasted time on impeachment.

Eh, it is for two years.

If that majority turns out to be as large as I projected (54-55 seats), expect it to last longer than just two years.  

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Fox:  GOP adds "about" 10 seats in the House. 

That 245 seat majority target doesn't look so crazy after all....  

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Suppose a few eggs gotta break to make that omelet.  Colorado/Virginia are very disappointing, but Republicans are mostly winning in their own strongholds.  Disgusting to see all those Democratic candidates running from Obama's record like the cowards they are.  The Blue Dog coalition is finally gone, and maybe we can finally see the Democrats begin their transformation into a true leftist party.

The New Democratic Coalition has since taken their place.   And I expect all surviving Blue Dogs to join once their caucus is finally disbanded, perhaps early next year.  You'll need some centrists to keep you sane and on an even keel...   

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New Hampshire 2014 is now our Florida 2000....  

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There is one bright side, though.  We may yet hold on to Iowa...  

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New Hampshire 2014 is now our Florida 2000....  

Her 0.4% lead is a blowout landslide compared to Florida 2000.

As of now...  

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New Hampshire may be going to recount...

As with Virginia and North Carolina.  

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Getting tight in Iowa as Ernst makes up lost ground...  

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On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.

Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.

Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.

Impressive almost win for Gillespie.

He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.

You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened.  Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.  

[Frodo]

I'm probably going to do a bigger post on this when I have time, but here's a precinct-level map of the Alaska Senate election day precinct vote results.  As usual for Alaska precinct-level data, this doesn't reflect any absentee or early votes, which are not broken down by precinct.  A minor candidate supposedly won the Southwest Alaskan bush precinct in yellow.  That will probably be a deep shade of red when the results are made official.



Here's a map of the election day precinct vote results by county equivalent.  Note that I didn't attempt to allocate the absentee and early votes to the county equivalents.  It's too early to do so and there is no reliable way to do so out in the bush, anyway.



Finally, here is the county equivalent swing in the election day precinct vote results from 2008 to 2014.  I measured swing by difference in overall margin between the two candidates running in those years.  Again, I didn't allocate the absentee, early or questioned votes in either year in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison.  Because HD and precinct lines have changed since 2008, this is the only swing map one can make.

Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct? 

[Frodo]

Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct?  

No.  I don't think that data is easily available, either.  You should be able to find the data for county equivalents on the Census website.  The general rule is that except in the Juneau area, the redder the county equivalent, the more Alaska Native it is.

That's pretty much what I suspected -that most whites are settled in or around Anchorage and Juneau with the vast hinterlands dominated by native Alaskans.  I just wanted visual proof to see if I was right, whether the racial breakdown corresponds to the vote.