2014 US Congressional Election Results

[memphis]

It's probably just a matter of which precincts are in, but McConnell's number suck so far in the Cincinnati burbs. He's barely up in counties that voted >60% for Bunning in 2004.

[memphis]

They always quietly "fix" the exit polls after the real results are in. It kind of defeats the purpose.

[memphis]

Grimes did really crappy in Lexington. It's almost all in too.

[memphis]

Exit poll shows:

SC

Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5

Dickerson 40
Scott 59


CNN projects Capito wins! R+1

If the Graham race does end up that close, Dems were dumb for not contesting it. Dems can get to 45% easily in SC, boost Ravenel a bit through SuperPACS, and maybe...?

It's the Deep South. Blacks vote Dem. Whites vote Rep. Both are extremely inelastic.

[memphis]

They really shouldn't even release a county total until it's all in. Who cares what the "numbers" are when they're at 2%?

Well, if you know which precincts and are extremely informed about local data, it could be helpful. But yeah, as is, it doesn't mean much.

[memphis]

For no particular reason, I'd like to see a grand total House votes box for each party. It'd be fun to cheer on my side.

[memphis]

Here come the 7:00 results.

[memphis]

While we're pretending partial results are indicative of full results, Pryor is doing well in Pulaski County (Little Rock). About as well as in his initial 2002 victory. Rural voters continue to be insane though. Something is very amiss in rural America.

[memphis]

Minimum wage in AR leads by 30%. What went wrong there?

The proposal was a raise to a whopping $8.50.  A non-joke state would be voting 90% for something so insufficient.

Minimum wage increases are extraordinarily popular just about everywhere. Just like background checks for gun purchases. People mostly support Democratic policies but are too misinformed to know it.

[memphis]

How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

I know this is not nice to say, but if they knew their head from their Inks, they wouldn't be so damn poor. Poor people, more than others, really buy into the ignorant identity politics crap that the GOP excels at.

[memphis]

R.I.P. John Barrow. This is a bad night for Democrats.

Potentially the end of the Blue Dog Coalition too.  

Though I am like the opposite of a typical old-school Southern Dem on the PM, this is kind of sad to see.  Just more and more polarization.

It makes zero sense to vote for the individual person for the House. Party is much more important as a practical matter.

[memphis]

Torie should be banned for his 2% trolling. Nobody with a healthy mind could be that dense. It's either deliberate or Alzheimer's.

[memphis]

Here's a trollshot for you, Torie. Enjoy Iowa.

[memphis]

WTF is going on in Virginia??

Breaking: Mark Warner isn't God.

Not God. Just a newly re-elected US Senator.

[memphis]

Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?

We knocked off an incumbent GOP governor in PA. Another in KS may drop very soon. Also picked up a Republican district in Florida.

[memphis]

Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?

We have a star that's going to hang on in NH, your stereotypical horrible GOPer going down in flames in PA, and the the door is open for progressives to really take over the Democratic Party.  Those are the bright spots.

This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.

Short of suggesting putting people in camps, policy hardly matters at all in our elections. It's all about messaging and convincing voters they "belong" in the party. Fix the message.

[memphis]

This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.

Even as Pryor lost by 16, minimum wage is winning in a landslide. A progressive agenda can be tailored to be popular. There's a disconnect we need to bridge.

^^^^^^^
Obama doesn't even try to sell his own policies. It's like he thinks that his primary job is governing and that people are smart enough to figure out for themselves that having health insurance is better than not having health insurance. We need to start picking candidates who know better. I strongly suspect Hillary can do that.

[memphis]

Brown ran an incredible race in New Hampshire.

Couldn't win a swing state with a substantial wave. That's not an incredible race.

[memphis]

Looks like we lost all the most Republican leaning districts. UT-4 (R+16), WV-3 (R+14) NC-7 (R+12) and GA-12 (R+9) The most Republican seat the Dems hold is now MN-7 which is R+6. I'll skip passing a value judgement on that, but it makes sense. Why would Republican voters vote for a Democrat or vice versa?

[memphis]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

[memphis]

Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.

Even when they draw maps that lean Republican. Out of nine seats, just two of them have D+x PVIs.

[memphis]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

Those GOP  PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.

In the 2012 election Obama won nationally by 3.86% He lost AZ-1 by 2.5%, AZ-2 by 1.5%. These are not in any way Democratic districts. They're not safe Republican seats either, granted. That is rather the entire point of having an independent commission draw the districts. Obama did win AZ-9, so if you want to to say that a statewide result in which the Democratic candidate wins 44% of the popular vote and 33% of Congressional Districts suggests a phantom Democratic gerrymander, that's your prerogative. But it puts you in JJ territory.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections#

[memphis]

It says a lot about the mental state of Republican party leaders when obscene gerrymanders like Ohio are considered to be the norm and a non-partisan commission map, which nonetheless allowed Romney to win a higher percentage of districts than he did the popular vote, is considered a Democratic gerrymander because there were seats, which although Obama did not win in either of his comfortable victories, which a Democrat could plausibly win. For the GOP, anything that is not an absurd Republican octopus gerrymander must be a Democratic gerrymander. UnInksing believable.

[memphis]

Has anyone seen a national compilation of House races by party as yet?

I'd guess that it is something like 51-R, 48-D.

The spread is quite a bit bigger than that.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results/house