2014 US Congressional Election Results

[cinyc]

Anybody have a link to the state exit polls?  I can't find them on CNN.com, my usual go-to source for them. 

Also, has anyone found the AP link?

[cinyc]

The Vorlon has returned. If J.J. comes back, it means R+10.

J.J. has already posted today.

[cinyc]

Best I can tell, the Kentucky exit is McConnell +7, in line with the RCP polling average.

[cinyc]

AOSHQDD has called Virginia for Warner.

[cinyc]

McConnell is up 15 with 64% in - and fairly representative of the state.  The early Kentucky Exits had him up by 7.  The RCP average had him up by 7.2.  Interesting.

[cinyc]

Fox News calls Colorado for Gardner.

[cinyc]

Iowa exits are 51-47 Ernst.

[cinyc]

Fox News: Republicans will gain about 10 seats in the House tonight.

[cinyc]

Roberts up 6 in KS with 44% of the vote in 51-45

AOSHQDD has called it for Roberts.  They also call Republican wins in GA-Sen and GA-Gov without a runoff.

[cinyc]

AOSHQDD says Tillis wins NC.

[cinyc]

Fox News: Roberts wins Kansas

[cinyc]

Fox: Schatz wins Hawaii.  Nobody's shocked.

[cinyc]

This I submit is the most unbelievable result in the nation - a district Obama won by 56%, and it is not as if the Dem incumbent is horribly incompetent, or a crook, or caught sleeping with some teenage boy, etc. In fact, given the NY-11 result, being a crook is not fatal, so I guess that aspect of Maffei is not relevant.

Being a crook is never fatal in New York.  It just adds character.

[cinyc]

NY-4, closer than expected, but with 100% in Rice 52.66-47.24

Rice was advertising on NYC broadcast TV for a reason, albeit in pretty light rotation.  It might have put her over the top.  Blakemann didn't run any broadcast ads that I saw.

[cinyc]

First Alaska results:

2014 GENERAL ELECTION
November 4, 2014
Unofficial Results
Date:11/04/14
Time:20:52:45
Page:1 of 8
Registered Voters 509011 - Cards Cast 70425 13.84%
Num. Report Precinct 441 - Num. Reporting 101 22.90%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts
441
Precincts Reporting
101
22.9 %
Times Counted
70425/509011
13.8 %
Total Votes
69739
Begich, Mark
DEM 30816 44.19%
Fish, Mark S.
LIB 2544 3.65%
Gianoutsos, Ted
NA 1394 2.00%
Sullivan, Dan
REP 34649 49.68%
Write-in Votes
336
0.48%

[cinyc]

Eyeballing what house seats are in, the Alaska results seem Fairbanks-heavy.

[cinyc]

Where can I get some Alaska results?

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/14GENR/

If that doesn't work due to volume:
http://elect.alaska.net/

[cinyc]

CNN has Sullivan +6 with 23% reporting but no house or gov results. +6 is solid but it depends on where the vote is from. Not done but don't bet on Begich.

Young is up 52-40 in AK-House AL.

[cinyc]

Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.

Thank you. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.

Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.

Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?

I do think late Alaskan results trend more rural and Democratic, actually, considering Ted Stevens narrowly led on Election Night and Begich only overtook him later. But I don't think they're so Democratic to overcome a six-point lead; the race swung by about 2 percent then. Sullivan's margin could -- actually should -- narrow, but I don't see him losing. If Begich can keep this to 4 points, it'll actually be very impressive considering the drubbings other red-state Democrats have received.

My expectation would be that for the Native Alaskan vote, the relative advantage is more now for Begich than when he went against Stevens, given Stevens work in establishing and advocating for the Native Corporations, meanwhile having Begich's more recent efforts at the Native vote and Sullivan's perceived hostility to their issues.

Based on percentage of precincts reporting in the Alaska House races:
Fairbanks is most in (marginal R), followed by the Kenai Peninsula (heavy R) and the Southeast (marginal D).  All are above 70% in, while 44% of the total precincts are reporting.  The heavy R Mat-Su is slightly more in than average, while bellwether Anchorage is slightly less in than average.  The heavy-D Bush significantly trails and is only 22% in.

[cinyc]

Alaska update - 55.1% in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      243   55.1%
Times Counted      158536/509011   31.1%
Total Votes      157062   
Begich, Mark   DEM   69537   44.27%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   5633   3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3070   1.95%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   78126   49.74%
Write-in Votes      696   0.44%

More of Anchorage, the Bush and the Mat-Su.  Mat-Su is 65% in - 10 points higher than the statewide average of 55%.  Anchorage is -3.  Bush Alaska is -25.

[cinyc]

Alaska Update almost 2/3 in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      289   65.5%
Times Counted      178060/509011   35.0%
Total Votes      176419   
Begich, Mark   DEM   78218   44.34%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6300   3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3393   1.92%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   87711   49.72%
Write-in Votes      797   0.45%

Kenai all in.  SE 95% in.  Fairbanks 94% in.  Mat-Su 78% in.  Kodiak-based HD 71% in. State 65.5% in.  Anchorage 64% in. Bush 43% in.

[cinyc]

AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.

[cinyc]

Alaska update almost 3/4 of the vote in. Sullivan +6.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      325   73.7%
Times Counted      195234/509011   38.4%
Total Votes      193436   
Begich, Mark   DEM   85259   44.08%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   6964   3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3774   1.95%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   96563   49.92%
Write-in Votes      876   0.45%

Mainly heavily-R Mat-Su in that dump.  Kenai and Fairbanks all in.  SE at 95%.  Mat-Su at 90%. Anchorage at 75%.  Statewide at 73.7%.  Kodiak-based HD at 71%.  Bush at 52%,

[cinyc]

AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.

There's about 3/4 of the vote in, Sullivan roughly +6. The math is getting very difficult for the Democrat. I am sure the other media outlets will follow suit shortly.

The problems for making any call is that there is no precinct-level data yet, the Bush is still out, and the early vote, which might not yet be fully counted, usually trends Democratic. 

But the fat lady is certainly warming up.

[cinyc]

Alaska Senate Update 76% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      344   78.0%
Times Counted      200587/509011   39.4%
Total Votes      198743   
Begich, Mark   DEM   87932   44.24%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   7139   3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   3864   1.94%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   98916   49.77%
Write-in Votes      892   0.45%

Anchorage and Bush votes.  Anchorage up to 82%.  Bush up to 58%.  Mat-Su remains at 90%.  One of the Kodiak-based HD precincts reported, too.