2014 US Congressional Election Results

[rbt48]

Does anyone know an AP link for the election returns?  If so, please share!

[rbt48]

I think that Roberts may pull out his race.  If it is tied with the returns so far, western Kansas would seem to be more in his favor.

[rbt48]

It was amazing to me that Lee Terry was as close to a win as he ended up being.  Ashford's TV ads (and there were lots) all quoted Terry saying there was no way he would give up his salary during sequestration because he had a big house and a kid in college.  Really, there was nothing that Terry could say in response!  I think only the Republican tail wind kept the race from being a 10 point win.

[rbt48]

I kept searching for the AP site.  I found that the Tennessee link had test results.  On searching with Google, I found a site where AP bragged about their top drawer election return reporting, but no links to any sites.  It seemed to imply that you could PAY to get access.

I really missed their county-by county result option for all races.

[rbt48]

It is extremely frustrating how in all these close western US races, the final votes always seem to favor the Democrat.  Of course it is a given that provisional favor the D candidate; just the nature of the beast that is provisional voting.  But absentees is another phenomenon entirely.  The CA Democrats must have this process down to a much better game plan.

[rbt48]

It is extremely frustrating how in all these close western US races, the final votes always seem to favor the Democrat.  Of course it is a given that provisional favor the D candidate; just the nature of the beast that is provisional voting.  But absentees is another phenomenon entirely.  The CA Democrats must have this process down to a much better game plan.

These states allow you to vote by mail without a special reason (and in some cases only have vote by mail), so the mail votes aren't necessarily absentee in the conventional sense.

Yes, it is a distant day when nearly all votes were cast on election day and returns were generally final by the next morning.  The only absentees votes were from folks who were actually out of town, generally people of some means, more Republican than Democrat.  Think of how Nixon prevailed in California in 1960 based on absentee ballots.  Same for Deukmejian over Bradley in California in the 1982 governorship race.  Bradley actually received more votes on election day, but lost due to absentees.  No longer the case!

[rbt48]

Has anyone seen a national compilation of House races by party as yet?

I'd guess that it is something like 51-R, 48-D.

[rbt48]

If the entire H of R reflected the delegations of CA, OR, IL, NY, MD, CT, RI, MA, and VT, Nancy Pelosi would be Speaker for Life.

[rbt48]

Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.

Federally it is. Democrats lost a mess of State Legislature seats.

Three Assembly seats for a new 52-28 majority and a Senate seat for a new 27-13 majority??

Not as many as I thought, but still.

NCSL has the Senate at 25-14-1 Vacant

[rbt48]

With the 2 LA-seats the GOP will have won 120 of 160 in the South, exactly 3 of 4.

... And 21 of the 40 are in Texas (11) and Florida (10).

[rbt48]

When is the AZ-2 recount set to occur?

[rbt48]

Why do you think that Scott out-performed Graham?

Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)

Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)


I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?

[rbt48]

Well, good points regarding the Scott vs Graham performance.  I'm wondering if anyone has some insight (perhaps from exit polls or from predominantly black or white precincts:  did Scott tend to do better than Graham?  How much stronger (or perhaps weaker) was Scott than white with black voters. 

My hunch is that except in perhaps more unusual situations, black Republicans tend not to do much better among blacks than do white Republicans when facing a white Democrat. I'm pretty sure that black republicans don't fare any better against black Democrats among black voters than do white Republicans in a similar election.

Your thoughts or even better, evidence?

[rbt48]

It looks like AP will be posting results for the Louisiana runoff elections later today:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/LA_Page_1206.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

I think, from what I saw and inferred from the AP website, that they made election night (Nov 4) returns only available for those who paid for the (perhaps other news organizations).  It will be nice to have their returns available for these races in Louisiana!

[rbt48]

I hope that Louisiana trashes the Jungle Primary system.  It was designed to keep Republicans from making it to the runoff.  Now that they dominate the state, Louisiana should return to electing officials and representatives on election day.  Let the parties choose their candidates in primaries.

The larger turnout on the November general election day is reason enough to abandon the current system.