2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Nichlemn]

Charlotte Observer ‏@theobserver  4m4 minutes ago
With 391,397 votes in, Hagan, Tillis both at 48%. #ncsen

Is what's reported D-friendly or R-friendly, or unknown?

[Nichlemn]

The Libertarian Party getting their first win of anything important in over a decade is surely a big deal, right?

Which office are you referring to?

Indiana 7th.

Indianapolis? Seems kind of a weird place for a Libertarian to win.

[Nichlemn]

What's everyone's overall read so far? From what I can see it's neutral to slightly Rep favoured, relative to expectations.

[Nichlemn]

538 just said Cotton won Arkansas  (ticked over in the big box, up to 80% GOP win now)

[Nichlemn]

Shaheen wins (according to 538 box)

[Nichlemn]

538: Perdue outperforming Chambliss in vast majority of counties (Chambliss got 49.8% in 2008 first round)

[Nichlemn]

Colorado exit poll:

Gardner 49.5%
Udall 46%

Kansas exit poll:

Roberts 49.5%
Orman 45.5%

If close to the mark, makes R Senate extremely likely.

[Nichlemn]

Barrow (D) losing GA-12, 63-37% with 41% of the vote in.

Wow. Presumably that's a Republican leaning part of the electorate, but the rest would have to be extremely Dem for him to win.

[Nichlemn]

Polling was just wrong in VA. It will end up a statistical tie, decided by a handful of votes, not more than a few hundreds at this point. Wow.

I sort of hope Gillipsie (sp) pulls it out, because it'd make a far bigger "WTF? prediction fail" story than if Warner wins by a tiny margin, despite being a big polling failure either way.

[Nichlemn]

They need to retract their call of NH now, she is ahead by less than 4,000.

Wow, maybe ~55 seats isn't so implausible after all.

[Nichlemn]

I just realised something  - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?

[Nichlemn]

AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves

Gerrymandering doesn't necessarily have to give you strong districts, only more opportunities than you would have otherwise had. Arizona's median district (AZ-01) was won by Romney 50-48, but he won statewide 53-44.