2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Was out for most of the day, so I'll post my thoughts on the races now:

• I did not see the MD or MA results coming, but then again, who did?
• Well done to Walker, LePage (nice swing to LePage), Brownback, Kasich (that's what I call a win!), Martinez, and Haley in particular on their re-election.
• Great job in AR and IL, well done Hutchinson and Rauner!
• I guess the main focus now is on CO (come on Beauprez!) and AK.
• Corbett may have lost, but you can't win them all.

All in all, I'm ecstatic about the gubernatorial results!

Pretty much everyone saw MA coming. Actually, Coakley kept it closer than expected really.

Thinking about it, I did predict Baker winning in MA, although narrowly. I guess I was too caught up in him actually winning.

[Boston Bread]

Hick leading!

[Boston Bread]

Interesting to see the extent to which the competitiveness of a gubernatorial race drove the turnout: Both candidates in Florida got more votes than the winners in California and Texas!

I doubt that will be true when Cali finishes.  But turnout there will be miserable indeed. And Florida didn't have great turnout either.

[cinyc]

Alaska:

GOVERNOR/LT GOVERNOR       
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       427    96.8%
Times Counted       226050/509011    44.4%
Total Votes       222390    
Clift/Lee    LIB    6645    2.99%
Myers/Rensel    CON    5331    2.40%
Parnell/Sullivan    REP    103426    46.51%
Walker/Mallott    NA    106361    47.83%
Write-in Votes      627    0.28%

[njwes]

With all of Clark County in, Sandoval kept his total above 70%, pretty incredible. Both the State Senate and State House went Republican.

[Free Bird]

With all of Clark County in, Sandoval kept his total above 70%, pretty incredible. Both the State Senate and State House went Republican.

That pretty much assures a senate run

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting to see the extent to which the competitiveness of a gubernatorial race drove the turnout: Both candidates in Florida got more votes than the winners in California and Texas!

I doubt that will be true when Cali finishes.  But turnout there will be miserable indeed. And Florida didn't have great turnout either.

That's true.  Brown has passed both Scott and Crist now, and Abbott will most likely end up passing Crist (if not also Scott) eventually too.  Though the total number of votes in Texas looks very unlikely to catch up to the total number in Florida.

[cinyc]

All in but the uncounted absentee/early vote in Alaska:

GOVERNOR/LT GOVERNOR       
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       441    100.0%
Times Counted       228242/509011    44.8%
Total Votes       224541    
Clift/Lee    LIB    6745    3.00%
Myers/Rensel    CON    5535    2.47%
Parnell/Sullivan    REP    104230    46.42%
Walker/Mallott    NA    107395    47.83%
Write-in Votes      636    0.28%

Walker +1.41

[RR1997]

Vermont: Shumlin (incumbent) leading against GOP challenger 46.58% to 45.21% with 97.09% of the vote reporting.

Colorado: Hickenlooper (incumbent) leading against GOP challenger Beauperez 48.10% to 47.37% with 92.54% of the vote reporting.

Alaska: Indepenedent Bill Walker is leading against GOP challenger Parnell (incumbent) 47.96% to 46.64% with 96.83% of the vote reporting.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy (incumbent) is leading against Tom Foley 50.69% to 48.27% with 90.44% of the vote reporting.

These are the only races that have yet to be called.

[user12345]

Ige only wins with 49% of the vote. Wow. Oregon and Minnesota are also way closer than I expected too.

[sg0508]

I believe some smaller papers have called the CO race for Hickenlooper, which still shows the GOP is weak in CO.  Udall's loss was only five points too.

[Vega]

Ige only wins with 49% of the vote.

That's what happens when you have Mufi Hannemann running as an independent.

Also, Ige is up 10 over Aiona so it wasn't close.

[SPQR]

Portland is only at 50% in Oregon,so Kitzbaher may still end up with >50%.
Still,pretty weak showing.

[KCDem]

Joe Dorman does more than 1.5 points better than Pryor in Arkansas. LOL

[KCDem]

Bruce Rauner outperforming Judy Barr Topinka.

Crossover voting is dead.

[Maxwell]

Joe Dorman does more than 1.5 points better than Pryor in Arkansas. LOL

Well Joe Dorman knows how to appeal to human beings, unlike Mark Pryor, who thinks just wearing hard hats and talking about the bible gets you votes.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So, how confident do we feel about Bill Walker right now?

[Miles]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RI]

Walker leads by 3,165 votes right now. If there are 25,000 absentee votes outstanding, they need to break about 14,250 to Parnell vs. 10,750 to Walker. In other words, Parnell needs to win 57% of their combined vote.

Of course, some of those votes will be for third party candidates. If 5% go to third parties, that leaves 23,750 votes between the two. Parnell's necessary two candidate share goes up slightly to 57.4% of their combined vote.

If the full 38,000 absentees votes requested are returned (unlikely), Parnell needs 54.6% of their combined vote to win. Discounting third party votes, it goes up to 54.8%.

AFAIK, absentee/early votes have generally favored Democrats in the past.

[RI]

Here's a somewhat awful, somewhat interesting precinct map of the Alaska race: http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/governors-race-mapping-the-election-results/29532920

[Vega]

Here's a somewhat awful, somewhat interesting precinct map of the Alaska race: http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/governors-race-mapping-the-election-results/29532920

Parnell did pretty good in the rural islands. He won't pull this one out, though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Walker leads by 3,165 votes right now. If there are 25,000 absentee votes outstanding, they need to break about 14,250 to Parnell vs. 10,750 to Walker. In other words, Parnell needs to win 57% of their combined vote.

Of course, some of those votes will be for third party candidates. If 5% go to third parties, that leaves 23,750 votes between the two. Parnell's necessary two candidate share goes up slightly to 57.4% of their combined vote.

If the full 38,000 absentees votes requested are returned (unlikely), Parnell needs 54.6% of their combined vote to win. Discounting third party votes, it goes up to 54.8%.

AFAIK, absentee/early votes have generally favored Democrats in the past.

So Walker should be good. Thanks.

[Vega]

CNN projected a Hickenlooper win.

[user12345]

HuffPost: Alaska
100% reporting
Bill Walker   107,395 48.0%
Sean Parnell 104,230 46.6%

[Rockefeller GOP]

I'm not his biggest fan, but the more Republicans in New England, the better: well done, LePage.  Also HECK YEAH, Baker!