Mark my words: Rand Paul will be President...

[socaldem]

after the 2024 election.

I think Paul is really playing a long game here...

My prediction:

a. Rand Paul runs in 2016 but loses a la McCain '00/Reagan '76, coming in a close 2nd or 3rd.

I think that '16 will feature a number of establishment candidates, perhaps Bush, Christie, and Walker (who has both establishment/conservative appeal), allowing a conservative activist/tea party candidate a la Santorum or Cruz to slip through and lose in a dramatic fashion to Hillary!

b. Paul waits out out and becomes the party standard bearer in 2022, when the base will definitely be more libertarian-leaning, as generational replacement changes the ideology of the GOP rank-and-file.

Thoughts?

[MurrayBannerman]

I think this is a very viable prediction. It's also one I could jive with.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

It's possible. As long as no one picks him for VP.

[socaldem]

I think this is a very viable prediction. It's also one I could jive with.

Actually, its something I wouldn't mind either. I want Hillary to be President and know that eventually the GOP will be back. I wouldn't mind an older, wiser and more seasoned Rand Paul winning eventually.

I'd prefer him to any combination of Jeb Bush, Walker, Christie, etc.

[BlueSwan]

Not an unrealistic scenario. Exxcept the part about a Cruz-like figure winning the nomination in 2016. I just don't see it happening. Christie/Bush/Walker will win it, or even Paul himself already in 16.

[socaldem]

Not an unrealistic scenario. Exxcept the part about a Cruz-like figure winning the nomination in 2016. I just don't see it happening. Christie/Bush/Walker will win it, or even Paul himself already in 16.

I just don't think the GOP is ready for Paul in '16. Some of his positions are just anathema to the GOP establishment--particularly on foreign policy. The freakout from the McCain/Graham/Ayotte triumvirate and Cheneyites would be epic!

Meanwhile, Walker and even Cruz, play the racial resentment game much better than Paul and in the Obama-era GOP, that makes all the difference.

[socaldem]

If he were to run, at what point would he have to drop out to maintain the possiblity of running for reelection.... could he file for both offices and then drop out of one prior to being the nominee?

If he were the GOP nominee and lost or even if he made a good run of it, I'm sure he could run for governor of Kentucky in 2019 (and would likely win) and then run for President again in 2024.

Paul presents an interesting contrast to Hillary that presents a more well thought out and non-racist/xenophobic right/libertarian populism...

I can see him being one of the following over the next 16 years: a Reagan figure who, at first, seems out-of-touch with the party and, then, takes over and remakes the GOP OR a William Jennings Bryan repeat also-ran candidate who presents a novel and somewhat eloquent (if somewhat off-kilter) worldview that is just too outside the mainstream for most Americans.

[NHI]

I could see this happen.
In '16  Clinton defeats Walker/Bush/Christie somewhere along the lines of 51-52% of the vote.
In '20 assuming Clinton runs, she faces the runner up from '16 perhaps and again wins, but perhaps narrowly. 50-48%.

After 16 years of Democratic rule Paul rides to the rescue and wins a comfortable victory

[King]

I can't see him be the nominee. He's too socially liberal for a GOP primary electorate that was just empowered to return to old habits.

I'm still very cynical about the national GOP. Sorry.

[DS0816]

I can't see him be the nominee. He's too socially liberal for a GOP primary electorate that was just empowered to return to old habits.

I'm still very cynical about the national GOP. Sorry.

I've become "cynical" about the Democratic Party.

I know this thread is about "Rand Paul" but the two major parties have sold out to Wall Street and the military industrial complex.

The Republican Party is essentially owned by the Koch brothers and their co-conspirators.

The Democratic Party's true leadership is stupidly continuing to tilt the party to the right in their policies.

For those actually wanting to improve the general health of the United States, very much for the people, neither of these two political parties—which is a duopoly—are the answer. At this point, they're nothing but brands and team colors.

[Likely Voter]

I have said before that Rand is playing the long game but I suspect his plan is more likely something like this:
- Run in 2016 and lose nomination but perform well and expand brand beyond father's base
- Remain in senate (winning in 2016)
- Spend 2017-2019 as very visible critic of President Hillary Clinton, continue to try to build coalitions between conservatives and mainstream GOP and continue outreach to youngs and non-whites
- Run for Prez again in 2020 - win GOP nomination as unity candidate (ala GWB)
- Beat Hillary and become pres in 2021

Paul knows you don't win the GOP nomination on your first go, so 2016 is his first go so he can come back in 2020. That is why he desperately needs a way to run for both President and Senate.

[King]

I can't see him be the nominee. He's too socially liberal for a GOP primary electorate that was just empowered to return to old habits.

I'm still very cynical about the national GOP. Sorry.

I've become "cynical" about the Democratic Party.

I know this thread is about "Rand Paul" but the two major parties have sold out to Wall Street and the military industrial complex.

I don't care about parties selling out to Wall Street. I care about them selling out to really dumb people: housewives with too much time on their hands, slacktivists that don't actually delve deep into issues they proclaim to care about, retirees with high school level education that think they know something because they are old.

[Ljube]

I can't see him be the nominee. He's too socially liberal for a GOP primary electorate that was just empowered to return to old habits.

I'm still very cynical about the national GOP. Sorry.

I've become "cynical" about the Democratic Party.

I know this thread is about "Rand Paul" but the two major parties have sold out to Wall Street and the military industrial complex.

I don't care about parties selling out to Wall Street. I care about them selling out to really dumb people: housewives with too much time on their hands, slacktivists that don't actually delve deep into issues they proclaim to care about, retirees with high school level education that think they know something because they are old.

You truly are very cynical. What needs to happen for you to change your mind?

[Bureaucat]

The Republicans were unsuccessful in their attempt to take control of the Kentucky House. The Democrat leadership of the House have stated that if the Republican controlled state Senate sends them a bill that would allow Rand Paul to simultaneously run for re-election to the Senate and for election as President, they would not bring that measure to the floor for a vote. If that holds, the only way for Paul to try to keep his current job in the Senate and run on the same ballot for President would be to win a federal lawsuit declaring the state law invalid due to conflict with federal law. He may decide that the risk isn't possible reward for a run in 2016.

[King]

I can't see him be the nominee. He's too socially liberal for a GOP primary electorate that was just empowered to return to old habits.

I'm still very cynical about the national GOP. Sorry.

I've become "cynical" about the Democratic Party.

I know this thread is about "Rand Paul" but the two major parties have sold out to Wall Street and the military industrial complex.

I don't care about parties selling out to Wall Street. I care about them selling out to really dumb people: housewives with too much time on their hands, slacktivists that don't actually delve deep into issues they proclaim to care about, retirees with high school level education that think they know something because they are old.

You truly are very cynical. What needs to happen for you to change your mind?

They stop selling out to know-nothings?

[Ljube]

I can't see him be the nominee. He's too socially liberal for a GOP primary electorate that was just empowered to return to old habits.

I'm still very cynical about the national GOP. Sorry.

I've become "cynical" about the Democratic Party.

I know this thread is about "Rand Paul" but the two major parties have sold out to Wall Street and the military industrial complex.

I don't care about parties selling out to Wall Street. I care about them selling out to really dumb people: housewives with too much time on their hands, slacktivists that don't actually delve deep into issues they proclaim to care about, retirees with high school level education that think they know something because they are old.

You truly are very cynical. What needs to happen for you to change your mind?

They stop selling out to know-nothings?

Know-nothings vote. And there are way too many of them.
Can there be anything else Republicans can do to redeem themselves?

[King]

You can try educating them instead of selling out. If they're unwilling to listen, more likely they'll just not vote and that's fine.

[Ljube]

You can try educating them instead of selling out. If they're unwilling to listen, more likely they'll just not vote and that's fine.

But then the Republicans will never win an election ever again. The Democrats will keep pandering to their know-nothings and happily win every time.

[King]

You can try educating them instead of selling out. If they're unwilling to listen, more likely they'll just not vote and that's fine.

But then the Republican will never win an election ever again. The Democrats will keep pandering to their know-nothings and happily win every time.

I'm demanding both parties stop selling out to know-nothings.