Meh ... we always hear how the primary electorate is more conservative, but I think we are a bit too influenced by the crazies who attend the debates and yell on TV. Time after time, the far right candidate doesn't get the nomination. Ted Cruz is most certainly far right. Plus, he'll split votes with some SoCon populist (who then has the nerve to call another Republican a RINO! LOL) like Huckabee or Santorum or Palin and probably another Tea Partier, too. Then you have Rand taking away votes ... the "Establishment" will rally behind one candidate earlier than the rest, IMO.
They generally don't get the nomination because they split votes amongst each other. In in a pure McCain vs Huckabee and Romney vs Santorum election from Iowa on with no other candidates, I think Huckabee and Santorum would've won or at least dragged it on like Clinton-Obama. Hangers-on like Perry and Gingrich made it easier Romney to advance.
I think Ted Cruz is dangerous because he could be a unifying voice among the far-right. For has crazy as he can be ideological, he doesn't make actual gaffes and he's such a dominant presence that he would stop any other conservative on his level from running.
The far right candidate loses 'time after time" if you literally mean 2008 and 2012, the 2 times when the GOP nomination was remotely as open as it now is. And if you look closer…
Huckabee 2008 was no Cruz. He was a very poor fundraiser. Cruz is very good. And his non-social policies were considered liberal by many conservatives. Kasich is a better comparison for Huckabee 2016 than Cruz.
In 2012, even with splitting, what was the moment the 2012 field was stacked with the most conservatives? Before Herman Cain dropped out. Before he did so, he polled with big leads even with all those conservatives in the race. And before that Rick Perry polled even bigger leads with all those conservatives in the race. Conservatives are better at unifying around a candidate than people here seem to understand. And the reason they each collapsed had nothing to do with splitting. For Rick Perry, it had to do with his being too liberal on immigration and then a bad debater/campaigner. For Cain, it had to do with a sex scandal. Then when there were fewer, Gingrich was sunk by corruption. And Santorum was hobbled by Gingrich refusing to quit but also by being a bad candidate who said he didn't care what the unemployment rate was.
Cruz has none of the problems that sank past conservatives. It doesn't mean he'll win. But it does mean their winning matters now.
