Which is more likely?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Alright we're hearing a lot of mixed idea about what is actually going to happen on Tuesday. A lot of people predicting everything from R+9 to the Dems holding onto control.

So, putting aside what you WANT to happen (I appreciate this may be a difficult task for many), do you think it's more likely that the GOP exceeds expectations or that the Democrats over-perform?

I know what I think... but the rest?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The latter, since it would be hard for Republicans to exceed already very high expectations. The only real danger of losing a seat for them is Kansas and it may turn our to be a hold after all, if Orman decided to causus with a very likely GOP majority.

[Torie]

Well, since the expectation overall is that the Pubs pick up 7 Senate seats net, and about the same number of House seats, and I think it most likely the Pubs pick up 8 Senate seats net, and 12 house seats net, the Pubs are more likely to exceed expectations than underperform. In fact, in my view, it is slightly more likely that the Pubs will do even better than my numbers, rather than worse. The biggest unknowns at this point, as most would agree, are Kansas and NC for the Senate.

With respect to the under-polled/garbage polled/internals spin polled, House, there could be all kinds of surprises. In the House, it could be a pretty wild night. Steve Israel, the House Dem campaign chief, was just quoted as being quite depressed, as he desperately tries to squeeze out a last few million in campaign dollars, to pump into seats formerly thought safe for the Dems. Heck, he's even sending money into MN-07, suggesting either panic or paranoia, or both. Heck, it would not totally shock me, although yes, it would be a big surprise, if the Pubs pick up 20 House seats net, or close to that.

[Lief 🗽]

Oh lord, more insanely optimistic House predictions from Torie. I remember in 2012 when he laughed at me when I suggested that Democrats would pick up seats in California.

[DrScholl]

The YouGov polls for the House show that Republicans won't gain that many House seats and even some of the flips they are showing are questionable.

[TDAS04]

I'm becoming more pessimistic, so I voted for option 1. 

[Torie]

Oh lord, more insanely optimistic House predictions from Torie. I remember in 2012 when he laughed at me when I suggested that Democrats would pick up seats in California.

I don't have a magic crystal ball. Who knew?  What is your guesstimate of what the final numbers will be again, Lief?

[IceSpear]

History says option 2 is more likely.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The former. They cheat.

[morgieb]

My predictions are rather pessimistic for the Senate (less so for the House, though that's because of a lack of reliable polling), so Scenario 2 for mine.

[KCDem]

Obviously the Democrats over performing since that's what they've always done.

Also, lol at people who think Republicans will pick up 20 house seats

[ElectionsGuy]

Probably that they exceed expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if R's picked up 8 seats.

[morgieb]

Probably that they exceed expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if R's picked up 8 seats.

My prediction actually has the R's gaining 8 seats lol. Will probably mean you keep the Senate if you win the Presidential election in 2016.

[Ljube]

Probably that they exceed expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if R's picked up 8 seats.

I wouldn't be surprised if R's picked up 9 seats. That would be exceeding expectations though.

[cinyc]

The YouGov polls for the House show that Republicans won't gain that many House seats and even some of the flips they are showing are questionable.

Many of the YouGov House polls have margins of errors in the teens.  If they show close races, they truly are for entertainment purposes only.  I would take all of them showing a single-digit race with a huge grain of salt.

[Mister Mets]

Expectations for Republicans are high, so it seems likelier that Democrats will keep the Senate than that Republicans will sweep all competitive races, especially with Democrats bragging about turnout and a few statistical arguments in their favor.