DSCC: Republicans are winning Romney states. They will lose many seats in 2016

[User157088589849]

DSCC are already preparing for Tuesday with talking points according to MSNBC
- Tough election map with open seats in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota virtually giving the GOP +3 seats from the start.
- Difficult to win in Louisiana and Arkansas with Obama as President. (Both states have seen a collapse of the Democratic vote since Obama has been the figurehead for the Democrats)
- Mitch McConnell is not liked by the voters in Kentucky, but with Obama as President, its just not a state that can be won.
- It will be a success for the Democrats if they can win 2 seats out of Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia.

DSCC Positives
- Republicans failed to make Oregon, Minnesota, Virginia, Michigan and Illinois competitive. Very good signs for 2016 at the Presidential and Senate races.
- Democrats have only 10 seats to defend in 2016. The Republicans 24 - 6 of these in Obama winning states - Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio - all of them 1st term senators. It will be tough to find some Clinton/Johnson voters in Wisconsin, Cinton/Toomey in Pennslyvania and Clinton/Ayotte in New Hampshire just like the GOP had in 2012.

[Lief 🗽]

Seems pretty reasonable. Hopefully we do win one of CO, IA, GA (I think Hagan will be fine).

[DrScholl]

Illinois is gone in 2016, especially if Republicans win control of the Senate this year. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are likely gone too. Florida and New Hampshire are Republicans best prospects to hold on to.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Midnight will be key to suspense when Begich wins and force this thing into OT.

[Mehmentum]

Republicans are basically running even with Romney this year.  They're winning in two Obama states and losing in one Romney state (North Carolina, though Kansas is essentially tied).  If they win they win and lose the same states in 2016 as 2014, the map will be very similar to 2012.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My guess is that the republicans will lose at least 2 of IL, PA, WI in 2016. They'll also lose at least 1 of FL, NH, MO, OH, NC. Retirements may also put GA, AZ, KY, IA, AR into play, and AK could be competitive should Murkowski lose the primary again but decline to do another write-in campaign. So essentially, Republicans best case scenario is a loss of 3, but their worst case scenario is a loss of 14.

However, they will pick up Nevada if Sandoval runs, they will pick up Colorado (a rare Obama state where Hillary will have little, if any coattails) as long as they get a good candidate, and retirements/excellent candidates could put OR, WA, CT into play.

So, at this very early stage, I can really see anything from net GOP +2, to net DEM +13. We'll just have to see where the cards fall, and the DSCC should not be counting on a big senatorial night (Gaining say, 5 or more net) in 2016.

[Vosem]

The map for Democrats in 2016 reminds me of the map for Republicans in 2012...many opportunities but no sure things. I've discussed how Johnson and Toomey are favorites for reelection numerous times, but for those of you who think Illinois is gone, who exactly do you think will beat Kirk?

[Lief 🗽]

Johnson ... favorite

lol

[DrScholl]

Tammy Duckworth could easily defeat Kirk.

[Recalcuate]

Midnight will be key to suspense when Begich wins and force this thing into OT.

There's about a zero chance any candidate is declared in Alaska at midnight. Alaska usually takes a pretty long time to develop given it's vast geography and difficulties counting the vote in the bush.

If this race is close, it won't be called until sun-up on the East Coast at earliest.

[Eraserhead]

Sounds like they're already throwing in the towel on this year.

[Lief 🗽]

Midnight will be key to suspense when Begich wins and force this thing into OT.

There's about a zero chance any candidate is declared in Alaska at midnight. Alaska usually takes a pretty long time to develop given it's vast geography and difficulties counting the vote in the bush.

If this race is close, it won't be called until sun-up on the East Coast at earliest.

If I remember right it wasn't called until mid-November in 2008.