Official Final Prediction Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:56:57 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Official Final Prediction Thread
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Official Final Prediction Thread  (Read 4576 times)
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 02, 2014, 11:51:10 AM »

It seems that we need one of these.

Predict whatever gubernatorial/statewide and local races that you feel like predicting right here.

Feel free to take a stab at those ballot initiatives too!
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2014, 12:13:17 PM »

I want to wait for the last PPP polls first, just in case. But it's looking like the Democrats are going to get spanked.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2014, 12:26:34 PM »

Here is my prediction for all races within single digits and pick-ups.

AK-GOV:
51% Parnell
48% Walker

AZ-GOV:
52% Ducey
46% DuVal

AR-GOV (R Pick-Up):
54% Hutchison
42% Ross

CO-GOV:
49% Hickenlooper
48% Beauprez

CT-GOV:
48% Malloy
48% Foley

FL-GOV (D PICK-UP):
49% Crist
45% Scott

GA-GOV (RUN-OFF):
49% Deal
47% Carter

IL-GOV:
50% Quinn
45% Rauner

KS-GOV (D Pick-Up):
49% Davis
46% Brownback

ME-GOV:
45% LePage
45% Michaud
6% Cutler

MD-GOV:
51% Brown
46% Hogan

MA-GOV (R Pick-Up):
49% Barker
46% Coakley

MI-GOV:
49% Snyder
48% Schauer

MN-GOV:
52% Dayton
44% Johnson

NH-GOV:
53% Hassan
44% Havenstein

PA-GOV (D Pick-Up):
57% Wolf
43% Corbett

RI-GOV:
44% Raimondo
41% Fung
12% Healey

WI-GOV:
50% Walker
49% Burke
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2014, 02:50:52 PM »

Wolf - 56%
Corbett - 44%

Brownback by 4%.

Deal avoids a runoff.

Scott survives.

Quinn survives (of course).

Michaud by 4%.

Walker survives.

Malloy squeaks by.

Hickenlooper survives.

Walker narrowly beats Parnell.

Coakley fails again (of course).

Hutchinson by 8-10%.

Snyder by 4-6%.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2014, 02:59:14 PM »

I'll wait for the final polls first. I'm especially interested in PPP's Michigan result.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2014, 03:43:19 PM »

AK-GOV: Walker, bloody and battered, barely beats Parnell

AZ-GOV: Ducey wins somewhat comfortably

AR-GOV: Hutchinson wins comfortably

CO-GOV: I can't predict with confidence. Safer to put money on Hick, though

CT-GOV: With Visconti out, I give Foley the smallest of edges, but I could be easily wrong

FL-GOV: Crist beats Scott narrowly

GA-GOV: Deal wins runoff

IL-GOV: A corrupt politician wins. Your guess.

KS-GOV: Davis barely wins

ME-GOV: LePage barely survives

MD-GOV: Brown wins

MA-GOV: Choakley blows it again

MI-GOV: Snyder wins

MN-GOV: Dayton holds on

NH-GOV: Hassan holds on by less than expected

PA-GOV: Wolf slaughters Corbett

RI-GOV: Raimondo wins by more than anticipated

WI-GOV: Walker wins
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,004
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2014, 06:48:47 PM »

Republicans pick up Arkansas and Massachusetts
Democrats pick up Pennsylvania, Kansas, and Florida.

Lots of races with surprising degrees of uncertainty, but I generally err on the side of the incumbent when the situation is ambiguous.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2014, 10:15:31 PM »

Democrats win in Pennsylvania, while Republicans gain Arkansas, Massachusetts, and Colorado.

Logged
nolesfan2011
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,411
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.68, S: -7.48

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2014, 10:18:59 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2014, 10:29:33 PM by nolesfan2011 »

Final race ratings

Safe R: NV, ID, WY, NM, NE, OK, SD, IA, TX, AL, TN, SC, OH
Likely R: AZ
Lean R: AR
Safe D: CA, NY, PA, VT
Tilt R: MA
Likely D: HI, OR, MN
Lean D: MD, NH, RI
Tilt D: IL
Toss-Up: AK, CO, KS, FL, WI, MI, ME, CT
Runoff (Toss-Up/Tilt R): GA

% predictions


*denotes flip.

AL: (I) Robert Bentley (R) over 60%
*AK: Bill Walker (I/D) 49% (I) Sean Parnell (R) 47% Others 4%
AZ: Doug Ducey (R) 53% Fred DuVal (D) 44% Others 3%
*AR: Asa Hutchinson (R) 52% Mike Ross (D) 45% Others 3%
CA: (I) Jerry Brown (D) over 60%
CO: (I) John Hickenlooper (D) 50% Bob Beauprez (R) 48% Others 2%
*CT: Tom Foley (R) 48% (I)Dan Malloy (D) 47% Others 5%
FL: (I) Rick Scott (R) 48% Charlie Crist 47% Others (mainly Adrian Wylie (L)) 5%
GA: (I)Nathan Deal (R) 49% Jason Carter (D) 47% Andrew Hunt (L) 4%. Georgia will go to a runoff if Deal does not break 50%
HI: David Ige (D) 52% Duke Aiona (R) 40% Mufi Hannemann (I) 7% Others 1%
ID: (I) Butch Otter (R) over 55%
IL: (I) Pat Quinn (D) 51% Bruce Rauner (R) 47% Others 2%
IA: (I) Terry Branstad (R) over 55%
*KS: Paul Davis (D) 49% (I) Sam Brownback (R) 46% Keen Umbehr (L) 5%
*ME: Mike Michaud (D) 47% (I) Paul LePage (R) 45% Eliot Cutler (I) 8%
MD: Anthony Brown (D) 52% Larry Hogan (R) 46% Other 2%
*MA: Charlie Baker (R) 49% Martha Coakley (D) 46% Others 5%
*MI: Mark Schauer (D) 50% (I) Rick Snyder (R) 49% Others 1%
MN: (I) Mark Dayton (D) under 55%
NE: Pete Ricketts (R) over 55%
NV: (I) Brian Sandoval (R) over 60%
NH: (I) Maggie Hassan (D) 54% Walt Havenstein (R) 46%
NM: (I)Susana Martinez (R) over 55%
NY: (I) Andrew Cuomo (D) over 55% Howie Hawkins (G) over 10%
OH: (I) John Kasich (R) over 60%
OK: (I) Mary Fallin (R) over 55%
OR: (I) John Kitzhaber (D) under 55%
*PA: Tom Wolf (D) under 55% (incumbent (R) Tom Corbett loses but breaks 40%)
RI: Gina Raimondo (D) 46% Allen Fung (R) 42% Robert Healey (I) 10% Others 2%
SC: (I) Nikki Haley (R) under 55%
SD: (I) Dennis Daugaard (R) over 60%
TN: (I) Bill Haslam (R) over 60%
TX: Greg Abbott (R) over 55%
VT: (I) Peter Shumlin (D) over 55%
WI: (I) Scott Walker (R) 50% Mary Burke (D) 49% Others 1%
WY: (I) Matt Mead (R) over 60%
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,234
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2014, 10:19:18 PM »

D gains: Pennsylvania, Kansas, Maine, Florida
R gains: Arkansas, Massachusetts
I gains: Alaska
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2014, 10:35:40 PM »


So Roberts by, what? 6-7 points?
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2014, 11:07:04 PM »

Final Predictions:

Safe R: NV, ID, WY, OK, SD, IA, TX, AL, TN, SC, OH
Likely R: NM, NE, AZ
Lean R: AR, GA (only due to runoff)
Tilt R: WI, MA

Tilt D: ME, MI, FL
Lean D: IL, CT, KS, CO
Likely D: RI, MD, NH
Safe D: CA, NY, PA, VT, MN, OR

Tilt I: AK
For a total of D+3, I+1 R-4
Walker losing would be the nicest surprise.
Logged
Seattle
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 786
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2014, 11:34:08 PM »

AK-GOV:
51% Parnell
48% Walker

AZ-GOV:
53% Ducey
46% DuVal

AR-GOV (R Pick-Up):
54% Hutchison
43% Ross

CO-GOV:
49% Hickenlooper
48% Beauprez

CT-GOV:
49% Malloy
48% Foley

FL-GOV (D PICK-UP):
49% Crist
46% Scott

GA-GOV (RUN-OFF):
49% Deal
47% Carter

IL-GOV:
51% Quinn
46% Rauner

KS-GOV (D Pick-Up):
49% Davis
46% Brownback

ME-GOV (D Pick-Up):
45% LePage
46% Michaud
8% Cutler

MD-GOV:
53% Brown
45% Hogan

MA-GOV (R Pick-Up):
49% Barker
47% Coakley

MI-GOV (D Pick-Up):
48% Snyder
49% Schauer

MN-GOV:
54% Dayton
44% Johnson

NH-GOV:
55% Hassan
45% Havenstein

PA-GOV (D Pick-Up):
58% Wolf
42% Corbett

RI-GOV:
48% Raimondo
41% Fung
9% Healey

WI-GOV:
50% Walker
48% Burke
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2014, 07:06:22 AM »



Hawaii has barely been polled at all so I think an R or possibly even an I win there is possible but I hedged my bets with the prediction. Tempted to make NH and CT into Republican gains - there might be some sort of "REBIRTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND REPUBLICAN" narrative but idk
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2014, 08:04:38 AM »

Democrats will pick up 4 seats by defeating the unpopular incumbent Republicans in those states while Republicans will pick up 2 open seats. There will be 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors after tonight.

Democratic pickups:

FL
KS
ME
PA

Republican pickups:

AR
MA (Seriously WTF)

MI and WI are going to be very close but I'm giving Republicans the edge in those states. CT and RI will also be close but the Democrats will be the ones who prevail in those states instead. Quinn (D-IL) and Brown (D-MD) will be fine.

D+2

Upset prediction: Parnell hangs on in Alaska because it's Alaska.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2014, 08:29:36 AM »

As for my local stuff:

Governor:

Cuomo 58%
Astorino 35%
Hawkins 6%
McDermott A bit less than 1%
Cohn Pretty close to goose egg status

State Senate District 41:

Serino 51%
Gipson 49%

Looking like quite the dog fight!

Attorney General:

Schneiderman +20%

Comptroller:

DiNapoli +30%

Ballot questions:

Proposal 1 - Pass

Proposal 2 - Pass

Proposal 3 - Fail


Logged
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,236
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2014, 09:04:34 AM »

Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2014, 09:42:44 AM »


Except for Coakley and Carter losing, that's a thing of beauty.
Logged
New_Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,139
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2014, 10:58:53 AM »

Unfortunately, I think Coakley will win tonight. Baker's momentum has subsided in the past few days and I don't think he will do as well as he needs to do with Independents (60%>)
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2014, 12:50:25 PM »

Logged
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,896
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2014, 03:19:35 PM »

Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,566
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2014, 03:50:25 PM »

Logged
New_Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,139
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2014, 03:53:00 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2014, 04:11:58 PM by Branden Cordeiro »

Bob Healey is going to have a major impact in Rhode Island, could hurt Raimondo.

Raimondo had a rally with Planned Parenthood last week, and showed support for partial birth abortion, which will hurt her with a lot of people in my opinion, and offended the Catholic church, which is pretty powerful in Rhode Island.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2014, 09:37:36 PM »


My other outstanding predictions aside for a moment...
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2014, 10:04:51 PM »



Hawaii has barely been polled at all so I think an R or possibly even an I win there is possible but I hedged my bets with the prediction. Tempted to make NH and CT into Republican gains - there might be some sort of "REBIRTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND REPUBLICAN" narrative but idk

I will now accept my accolades for totally calling Maryland
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.