Official Final Prediction Thread

[Skill and Chance]

Senate

The GOP wins the LA and GA runoffs and Orman caucuses with them for a 52/48 majority.  Orman wins more decisively than expected because of moderate Republicans who are still telling pollsters they support Roberts.  Udall surprises in CO while Braley is blown out.

Governors

Surprises of the night: Davis also overperforms in KS, Kitzhaber has more of a scare than expected in OR, and Abbott does better than Fallin.

[Alreet]

R pickup: AR, AK, IA, CO, MO, SD, WV
R hold: KT, KS (GA)
D hold: NC, NH, (LA)
Runoff: LA, GA

Confident on all of the above with the exceptions of LA, KS and AK

[Suburbia]

Republicans pickup: WV, MT, SD, AR, CO, IA, AK
Republicans hold: KY, KS
Democrats gain: GA
Democrats hold: NH, MI, MN

Republicans gain 7+ seats in Senate

House: Republicans gain 8+ seats in House

[J. J.]

GOP picks up SD, MT, WV, IA, CO, AR, AK (after a few days), LA after a runoff, hold KY and GA after a runoff, and lose Kansas
Dems hold NH and NC

GOP picks up WV, SD, MT (given), AR, IA (trending), AK, CO, (close), LA (in December), in a very close election, NC.

GOP Hold:  KY, and GA.

GOP loses:  KS.

01/31/15:

Senate:  R 53, D 42, I 3 (2 caucusing with the Democrats, 1 with the Republicans)

House:  R 241, D 194 (R +7)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Will do this tomorrow... would like to see more out of IA.

[morgieb]

My current predictions:



Made that about a week ago, so some margins might have changed (<40% seems pessimistic for Rounds, but that's the only one that doesn't look plausible, and I think Iowa and Colorado should have comparable percentages), but I'll stick with it for the winners.

Roberts the only underdog I have winning, my logic is that I think there'll be a few people who err on the side of caution with Orman (they think he'll be a liberal Democrat or something) and given how close the race is there, that will matter IMO.

Not sure what the surprise of the night will be, a lot of races have had adequate polls and the rest have sacrificial lambs/are in really safe states.

[SPC]

I was waiting for PPP to provide some insight in Alaska and Kansas, but their Alaska poll was ambiguous, to say the least. With that, I will stick with my current prediction, giving the incumbents in both states the benefit of the doubt.

GOP picks up Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Arkansas, Colorado, and Iowa on Election Night, with Louisiana headed to a runoff (Perdue barely gets 50%) Cassidy then wins Louisiana by a smaller than expected margin.

[SPQR]

Initial predictions:

GOP wins SD, WV, MT, AR easily.
LA and GA go to run-offs. Cassidy probably wins, but by less than polls are showing right now (something like 51-49). Perdue also probably wins, but the political mood can change pretty rapidly during the lame duck session before the run-off election.
Democrats hold on to NH and NC by about 2-4% each.
I think the Democrats will surprise in one of AK, CO, IA. Not sure which.
Roberts very narrowly holds on in Kansas.
Leaving us with 52-48.

Pretty much this,except for Kansas.
Out of AK,CO and IA,I actually believe that Begich has the best chance. We'll see whether the "AK effect" is really  pro-GOP  or  pro-incumbent.

[backtored]

Senate:

GOP wins: WV, MT, SD, KS, CO, IA, AR

GA and LA go to a runoff with GOP plurality--GOP will win them in a month.

Democrats win Alaska, North Carolina, and New Hampshire--all by about a point.

Governor:

Democrats win: KS, CT, FL, IL

GOP wins: GA, WI, MI, CO, ME

[Donnie]

US senate:

GOP SAVE PICKUPS: WV, MT, SD

CLOSE RACES:
New Hamphire     (D) HOLD by 0-1%
Iowa                  (R) PICKUP 1-3%
Kansas            (R) HOLD  1-3%
Colorado            (R) PICKUP 1-3%
North Carolina    (R) PICKUP 0-1%
Georgia            (R) HOLD 3-6% in runoff
Alaska            (R) PICKUP 0-1%
Louisiana            (R) PICKUP 3-6% in runoff
Kentucky         (R) HOLD 6-10%
Arkansas        (R) PICKUP 6-10%

NET GAIN:(R)+9

[Ljube]

Republicans defend all their seats, including competitive KY, KS and GA, which is won by Perdue in January runoff.
Republicans pick up the following seats: MT, WV, SD, AR, AK, CO, IA and LA, which is decided in December runoff.

Republicans gain 8 seats in the Senate.

[windjammer]

R+4: Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia and Arkansas

[SWE]

Senate: R+7/8, depending on how Orman cacuses. Republicans gain West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arkansas, Colorado, Alaska, and Iowa, Independent gain in Kansas

House: R+6. Republicans pickup Matheson, Owens, and McIntyre's open seats, while Ron Barber, Nick Rahall, Joe Garcia, Ann Kirkpatrick, Brad Schneider, and Ami Bera lose reelection. Democrats pickup Gary Miller and Tim Griffin's open seats and defeat Lee Terry.

[ProudModerate2]

The No-Brainers. I feel "strong" in predicting these outcomes :

1.) West Virginia = Rep win.
2.) Montana = Rep win.
3.) South Dakota = Rep win.
4.) Virginia = Dem win.
5.) Kentucky = Rep win.
6.) Arkansas = Rep win.
7.) Louisiana = No winner decided on Nov 4 & going to future runoff election.

I "lean" towards and feel fairly confident on these winners :

8.) North Carolina = Dem win.
9.) New Hampshire = Dem win.

Here are the true toss-ups. There is a "slight" chance with these outcomes :

10.) Iowa = Rep win. (Very well run campaign and likability of candidate)
11.) Kansas = Ind win. (Very close win. Orman waits weeks/months b4 deciding who to caucus with)
12.) Alaska = Rep win. (Very close win, but full counting & final outcome may take up to 3 weeks)
13.) Georgia = No winner decided on Nov 4 & going to future runoff election. (Rep just under 50%)
14.) Colorado = Dem win. (Dem's pull-off strong get-out-to-vote campaign and surprise win)

[Badger]

Of the swing races, in decreasing order of certainty:

Sheehan and Hagan hold on.
GA and LA go to runoffs, both of which the Republicans win.
IA and CO go Republican (slim, but real chance of Dem upset in either)
AK also goes Republican.
The winner of the KS Senate race.......caucuses with the GOP.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I'm thinking GOP + 3. Gains WV, SD, MT, AR. Dems hold AK, NH, IA, CO, gain KS.

Runoffs for LA, GA. Not confident enough to give predictions for those yet.

[Talleyrand]

I'm going with R+9 in the Senate. Republicans take Iowa, Alaska, West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana (in the runoff), and narrowly North Carolina.

Democrats narrowly hold in New Hampshire, while Republicans hold all their seats and avert a runoff in Georgia.

In the House, I'm predicting between 10-15 gains for the Republicans, while Democrats gain CA-31 and NE-02.

[nolesfan2011]

Final race ratings:

Safe R: ID, MT, WY, NE, OK x2, TX, MS, AL, TN, SC x2, WV and ME
Likely R: SD, KY
Lean R: IA, AR
Safe D: HI, OR, IL, MI, VA, NJ, DE, MA and RI
Likely D: NM, MN
Lean D: NC
Toss-Up: AK, CO, KS, NH
Goes to runoff: LA, GA (Both races are rated Lean R)

Final % predictions

AL: Jeff Sessions (R) unopposed
*AK: Dan Sullivan (R) 49% (I) Mark Begich (D) 48% Others 2%
*AR: Tom Cotton (R) 53% (I) Mark Pryor (D) 44% Other 3%
*CO: Cory Gardner (R) 50% (I) Mark Udall (D) 48% Other 2%
DE: (I) Chris Coons (D) over 60%
GA: David Perdue (R) 49% Michelle Nunn (D) 47% Amanda Swafford (L) 4%. neither candidate breaks 50% GA goes to a January runoff.
HI: (I) Brian Schatz (D) over 60%
ID: (I) Jim Risch (R) over 60%
IL: (I) Dick Durbin (D) under 55%
*IA: Joni Ernst (R) 51% Bruce Braley (D) 47% Other 2%
*KS: Greg Orman (I) 49% (I) Pat Roberts (R) 47% Randall Batson (L) 4%
KY: (I) Mitch McConnell 54% Alison Grimes (D) 43% David Patterson (L) 3%
LA: (I) Mary Landrieu (D) 44% Bill Cassidy (R) 37% Rob Maness (R) 15% Other 4%. Landreiu and Cassidy advance to a December h2h runoff, where Cassidy has a decided advantage (this is the jungle primary).
ME: (I) Susan Collins (R) over 55%
MA: (I) Ed Markey (D) over 55%
MI: Gary Peters (D) over 55%
MN: (I) Al Franken (D) under 55%
MS: (I) Thad Cochran (R) over 55%
*MT: Steve Daines (R) over 55%
NE: Ben Sasse (R) over 55%
*NH: Scott Brown (R) 51% (I) Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49%
NJ: (I) Cory Booker (D) over 55%
NM: (I) Mark Udall (D) under 55%
NC: (I) Kay Hagan (D) 50% Thom Tillis (R) 46% Sean Haugh (L) 4%
OK and OK-special: (I) Jim Inhofe (R) over 60% and James Lankford (R) over 60%
OR: (I) Jeff Merkley (D) over 55%
RI: (I) Jack Reed (D) over 65%
SC and SC-special: (I) Lindsey Graham (R) under 55% Thomas Ravenel (I) over 5%, and (I) Tim Scott (R) over 60%
*SD: Mike Rounds (R) 45% Rick Weiland (D) 36% Larry Pressler (I) 15% Gordon Howie (I) 4%
TN: (I) Lamar Alexander (R) over 55%
TX: (I) John Cornyn (R) over 55%
VA: (I) Mark Warner (D) under 55%
*WV Shelley Moore Capito (R) over 55%
WY: (I) Mike Enzi (R) over 60%

Before Colorado, Kansas, Alaska and New Hampshire get counted, and before the GA and LA runoffs, I have the Senate 48-46 in favor of the GOP.

If Kansas goes to the Indie/Dem Orman as I predict, Alaska goes to Sullivan by a hair, and Colorado goes to Gardner, that makes it 50-47 GOP before the GA and LA runoffs. They only need to win one of NH, GA, LA to take Senate control.

I have Scott Brown in an upset, and then after the December and January runoffs in LA and GA both going to the GOP (Cassidy and Perdue will be favored) the final Senate result should be 53-47 in favor of the GOP, a six seat advantage.

[Boston Bread]

(not wasting time on landslide seats)
AK: Begich +3
AR: Cotton +5
CO: Udall +2
GA: Nunn +1 on election day, Perdue +2 on runoff
IA: Braley +1
LA: Landrieu 45-37 on election day, Cassidy +4 on runoff
MN: Franken +10
MI: Peters +15
NC: Hagan +4
NH: Shaheen +5
KS: Orman +2
KY: McConnell +5
SD: Rounds +12
VA: Warner +11

Net: -5D, +4R +1I
Taking a bet on likely voter models missing out on good democratic turnout.

House: R+2 in total, generic ballot is basically tied

[Eraserhead]

U.S. Senate:

Republicans take control by adding 7 seats tonight and they hold another seat after the January runoff. The new makeup of the U.S. Senate will be 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats and 2 Independents (who will caucus with the Democrats).

Republican pickups:

AK (toughest one to predict - anything can happen here)
AR
CO (very close)
IA (very, very close)
MT
SD
WV

R+7

Upset prediction: Landrieu (D-LA) survives her December runoff.

U.S. House of Representatives:

Republicans will retain their majority and add about 5-10 seats.

R+5-10

Upset prediction: Doug Owens defeats Mia Love narrowly to hold UT-4 for the Democrats.

[Eraserhead]

I'm also gonna predict my local stuff with percentages:

NY-18

Maloney 53%
Hayworth 47%

NY-19

Gibson 57%
Eldridge 43%

[Bacon King]

This is my final prediction for the Senate:



The race I'm most uncertain about is Alaska. I only expect Democratic victories in Louisiana and/or Georgia if the GOP wins 51+ seats today. if they're at 49 or 50 (no way they're worse than that IMO) then they'll be throwing everything they've got into those two races to make sure they have their Senate majority.

[Eraserhead]

This is my final prediction for the Senate:



The race I'm most uncertain about is Alaska. I only expect Democratic victories in Louisiana and/or Georgia if the GOP wins 51+ seats today. if they're at 49 or 50 (no way they're worse than that IMO) then they'll be throwing everything they've got into those two races to make sure they have their Senate majority.

Brown winning while Udall survives? I wish I could make my prediction that interesting.

[Bacon King]

gonna go ahead and predict the margins because why not:

AK: so close they need a week or two to figure out who actually won
AR: Cotton+10
CO: Udall+1
IA: Ernst+4
GA: Nunn+0.5 (tonight)
KS: Roberts+7
KY: McConnell+9
NH: Brown+6
NC: Hagan+3

Louisiana
Landrieu: 44%
Cassidy: 35%
Manness: 18%

South Dakota
Rounds: 44%
Weiland: 30%
Pressler: 24%

[Bacon King]

Brown winning while Udall survives? I wish I could make my prediction that interesting.

They're both based on patterns I've noticed in past elections.

Democrats consistently do better than they poll in Colorado, and in New Hampshire the voters often have huge last-minute swings that the polls only pick up partially if at all