Who will be the Shelley Moore Capito of the 2016 Cycle?

[KCDem]

Soon after the 2012 elections, Shelley Moore Capito declared her candidacy for US Senate in West Virginia and nudged Jay Rockefeller into retirement. Despite Natalie Tennant's candidacy, Capito remained favored throughout and is most likely to win comfortably on election day. Who would be in an equivalent guaranteed pic-up situation in 2016?

[moderatevoter]

If Lisa Madigan was to declare (which I have my doubts about), it could convince Kirk not to run.

[Bacon King]

Soon after the 2014 elections, Hillary Rodham Clinton declared her candidacy for President of the United States and nudged Barack Obama into retirement. Despite Rand Paul's candidacy, Clinton remained favored throughout and is most likely to win comfortably on election day.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, Madigan is the best possibility, but I can't really think of any Democrat strong enough to convince an incumbent Republican to retire.

[Del Tachi]

Is Jay Nixon still popular enough in Missouri to give Blunt reservations about running again were he to announce?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Soon after the 2014 elections, Hillary Rodham Clinton declared her candidacy for President of the United States and nudged Barack Obama into retirement. Despite Rand Paul's candidacy, Clinton remained favored throughout and is most likely to win comfortably on election day.

The 22nd amendment would like a word with you.

[IceSpear]

Lisa Madigan, Russ Feingold, Brian Sandoval.

[DrScholl]

I don't think anyone will be in that position in 2016.

[Free Bird]

Lisa Madigan, Russ Feingold, Brian Sandoval.

[Maxwell]

If Johnny Isakson retires, then it's going to be Michelle Nunn.

If Harry Reid retires, Sandoval will be, and he might even be if Reid doesn't retire.

[free my dawg]

If anyone it will be Sandoval. Possibly Nunn/Barrow/Carter.

[KCDem]

Lisa Madigan, Russ Feingold, Brian Sandoval.

Given that Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold, I doubt he would nudge Johnson into retirement.

[IceSpear]

Lisa Madigan, Russ Feingold, Brian Sandoval.

Given that Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold, I doubt he would nudge Johnson into retirement.

In a low turnout election with an enormous Republican wave. YouGov shows an electorate that voted for Walker by 7 in 2010 also says they voted for Feingold by 2. In other words, a lot of Johnson voters are lying and saying they voted for Feingold. Combine that with the presidential year, higher turnout, Hillary coattails...

[Lief 🗽]

Lisa Madigan, Russ Feingold, Brian Sandoval.

Given that Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold, I doubt he would nudge Johnson into retirement.

In a low turnout election with an enormous Republican wave. YouGov shows an electorate that voted for Walker by 7 in 2010 also says they voted for Feingold by 2. In other words, a lot of Johnson voters are lying and saying they voted for Feingold. Combine that with the presidential year, higher turnout, Hillary coattails...

I think Feingold would be the favorite, but I don't think he'd be enough of a favorite to convince Johnson to not run for re-election. Plus he's probably too prideful to not be willing to fight a re-match. I think that's what KCDem is getting at.

[Mister Mets]

Sandoval fits the bill.

There aren't many other competitive states where someone's popular enough to force out an old-timer. I don't see any newcomers opting not to run again, though it could happen (see Jim Webb).

There may very well be a Democratic Cory Gardner, but that's not quite what Capito did.

McCain might not run again, but I'm unaware of a Democratic nominee in Arizona on the level of Capito.

[Vosem]

The two possibilities I can think of -- both coincidentally in the Southwest -- are Giffords in Arizona and Sandoval in Nevada. But this isn't a thing that happens every cycle, and it may very well be that the correct answer is "no one".

[Mister Mets]

The two possibilities I can think of -- both coincidentally in the Southwest -- are Giffords in Arizona and Sandoval in Nevada. But this isn't a thing that happens every cycle, and it may very well be that the correct answer is "no one".

This got me thinking about who the Capitos of earlier elections were.

Nelson was doomed in 2012, regardless of who Republicans nominated. Conrad probably got spooked, but Heitkamp kept the seat for Democrats.

Bayh did drop out in 2010 after Coats decided to go for his old Senate seat, but that may have been a recognition of problems of Democrats in Indiana, rather than Coats being strong. Hoeven was pretty much unstoppable in North Dakota, so that could spooked the incumbent Democrat.

The Udalls might have scared away Wayne Allard from Colorado and Pete Domenici from New Meixco in 2008.

Democrats did not flip any seats held by retiring Republicans in 2006. Instead, they stomped six incumbents, so those six might represent the worst case scenario for lonngtime officeholders.