4 reasons why Senate control may not be decided on Nov.4

[ProudModerate2]

How likely are each of these events ?? Give us your opinion.

1.) Louisiana.
Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu vs. GOP challenger Rep. Bill Cassidy.
State law says that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, then the top two candidates must compete in a future runoff election. Runoff will be held on Dec 6th.

2.) Georgia.
Republican David Perdue vs. Democrat Michelle Nunn.
Same as above ... State law says that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, then the top two candidates must compete in a future runoff election. Runoff will be held on Jan 6th.

3.) Alaska.
Incumbent Democrat Mark Begich vs. Republican Dan Sullivan.
Alaska is well known for their long delay in races being called, due to close contests and increased absentee voting. If the election is close in Alaska with numbers coming-in on election night (next morning), it may require a full count of all votes which may take 1 to 3 weeks to complete.

4.) Kansas.
Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts vs. Independent Greg Orman.
Orman won’t say who he will caucus with if he wins. And if he does win, we may have to wait for his decision until after Jan. 6th, which is the day the Georgia runoff election will take place.

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5.) Maine.
Independent Senator Angus King.
A fifth unusual event may take place in regards to one of the senators from the State of Maine. Independent Senator King (who is not up for re-election this year) may switch his allegiance and caucus with the Republicans.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm pretty sure that it won't be decided on 11/4.

[Mehmentum]

I think that all 4 of these will happen. LA and GA will go to runoff, Orman will win in Kansas, and Alaska will take forever to be decided.

I also wouldn't be surprised if a state like Iowa is so close that it goes to an automatic recount, further complicating the process.

[The Other Castro]

King isn't up this year, nor will he switch to GOP unless they (very improbably) offer him a chairmanship

[ProudModerate2]

King isn't up this year ....

Oops ... my error. I was confused with the undeniable win of Sen Susan Collins of Maine (not King).
I will adjust my comment regarding Maine in the very first opening post above.
Thank you for pointing that out.

[J. J.]

King could shift, but I doubt it. 

[Ebowed]

Angus King won't be switching as long as Obama is in office.

[Free Bird]

King could shift, but I doubt it. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, King crossing the aisle seems about a remote a chance as Murkowski randomly defecting to the Democrats. Independent =/= Moderate

[Badger]

Republicans need to sweep IA, CO, KS, and AK tomorrow to solidify senate control without waiting for the LA and GA runoffs. Distinctly possible, but not likely.

Dems need to win 3 of 4 to keep Senate control regardless of GA and (especially) LA. Not impossible, but rather unlikely.

Baring either party beating the odds against them, the Senate will be decided in the runoffs. As long as the GOP carries at least 2 of those 4 races (a decent probability), all they have to do is then beat Landrieu, and then Nunn, in what will become the most nationalized senate races in years, which will make them very difficult for either Democrat (especially Nunn) to win.

For that matter, Republicans winning 3 of 4 races (close to 50/50 odds I'd say) means we've won the Senate short of Landrieu winning re-election (which will still be nationalized by, technically, "deciding the Senate's control") and Nunn then winning an mega-upset where a majority of GA runoff voters willingly agree to give Senate control back to the Democrats (assuming Landrieu wins in December). Say that last line out loud for full impact of Nunn's odds.  

FWIW, even if Republican control of the Senate is established by next month regardless of the final outcome in GA, I still don't believe the de-nationalization of that race will be enough to sink Perdue in the runoff.

[ProudModerate2]

My Senate prediction includes all four of these taking place.

PS: Even if the Republicans take control of the Senate, I believe Sen King (I-ME) will not switch parties.