Governor Race Models
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Author Topic: Governor Race Models  (Read 581 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: November 02, 2014, 11:36:07 PM »

Huffpost

Arkansas: 95% R
Arizona: 83% R
Georgia: 68% R
Massachusetts: 64% R
Wisconsin: 59% R
Michigan: 58% R
Connecticut: 57% R
Maine: 50/50
Illinois: 50/50
Alaska: 50/50
Florida: 52% D
Colorado: 55% D
New Hampshire: 60% D (really?)
Kansas: 63% D
Rhode Island: 81% D
Maryland: 92% D

538

Arkansas: 96% R
Arizona: 87% R
Georgia: 87% R
Massachusetts: 80% R
Wisconsin: 76% R
Michigan: 72% R
Connecticut: 50/50
Alaska: 56% I
Maine: 56% D
Colorado: 59% D
Illinois: 59% D
Florida: 60% D
Rhode Island: 76% D
Kansas: 81% D
Maryland: 93% D
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2014, 11:47:15 PM »

hmm wasn't expecting huffpost to be so favorable to GOP
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 12:00:20 AM »

hmm wasn't expecting huffpost to be so favorable to GOP

Yeah IL and CT were surprising.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 01:13:01 AM »

I'll take what I can get
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2014, 03:27:14 AM »

hmm wasn't expecting huffpost to be so favorable to GOP

Yeah IL and CT were surprising.

Anything within that 50-60% range should be taken with a grain of salt. Those races are really very close. There's not much difference between 50 and 57%. They are still pure tossups with slight leans.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2014, 01:37:26 PM »

Jesus... Cook has over half of the gubernatorial races at tossup: 14!!!
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2014, 01:45:38 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2014, 02:24:09 PM by Badger »

538 looks about right, but I'd say advantage Malloy in CT, and Snider's chances in MI are not over 70% at this point.

Also, God only knows in AK.

Still, if the favored party wins every race plus Malloy in CT, that won't surprise.
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sg0508
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2014, 01:47:43 PM »

I can't agree with WI.  Democrats ALWAYS close well in WI and their results are always stronger than the final polls. I think Walker is in big trouble.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2014, 02:28:55 PM »

I'm guessing 1-2 candidates with +60% in 538's model will lose, but no idea which ones.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2014, 02:42:20 PM »

Why is Michaud a favorite when LePage has an average lead?
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2014, 06:09:05 PM »

Why is Michaud a favorite when LePage has an average lead?

It's accounting for the Cutler-shift
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