Can Democrats count on permanently high African-American turnout?

[pikachu]

Yes. Its been very consistent over the past 10-15 years. 85-95% of blacks vote Democrat and turnout stays roughly the same as white turnout. What they can't count on, however, is Latino turnout (usually horrendous in midterm years and OK at best in presidential years), and enough of the white vote for them to win. Not many people on the left recognize it, but they actually do have a problem with white voters. Especially in the Midwest, the white 'working class' people are increasingly Republican.

I generally agree with this, but it remains to see how much of an Obama effect there was on white voters. In 2012, while we did see Obama perform terribly with whites in OH and PA, he performed at 2008 levels with whites in WI and IA, which suggests to me that Democrats are in a decent position there. The 2014 governor elections should also give some hope to Democrats in Western PA, since Wolf did better in Fayette and Greene than almost every county in Eastern PA other than immediate Philly area (DelCo, MontCo, and the city) and Lackawanna. You see a similar thing in Ohio with FitzGerald losing at lower margins along the PA border than he did in the Cleveland suburbs. It'll be interesting to see what effect not having the specter of Obama has on the Midwest.

[KingSweden]

Yes. Its been very consistent over the past 10-15 years. 85-95% of blacks vote Democrat and turnout stays roughly the same as white turnout. What they can't count on, however, is Latino turnout (usually horrendous in midterm years and OK at best in presidential years), and enough of the white vote for them to win. Not many people on the left recognize it, but they actually do have a problem with white voters. Especially in the Midwest, the white 'working class' people are increasingly Republican.

I'd add to this that Democrats are reliant in many states on college-aged liberal whites, who don't vote for candidates that don't "excite" them (whatever that means). That kind of dropoff among young voters and Latinos, like you pointed out, is a bigger problem. I imagine (and am broadly stereotyping) that blacks vote consistently due to treasuring the franchise in a different way than other groups do due largely to the historic discrimination and disenfranchisement experienced by that group.

[Sol]

Yes. Its been very consistent over the past 10-15 years. 85-95% of blacks vote Democrat and turnout stays roughly the same as white turnout. What they can't count on, however, is Latino turnout (usually horrendous in midterm years and OK at best in presidential years), and enough of the white vote for them to win. Not many people on the left recognize it, but they actually do have a problem with white voters. Especially in the Midwest, the white 'working class' people are increasingly Republican.

I'd add to this that Democrats are reliant in many states on college-aged liberal whites, who don't vote for candidates that don't "excite" them (whatever that means). That kind of dropoff among young voters and Latinos, like you pointed out, is a bigger problem. I imagine (and am broadly stereotyping) that blacks vote consistently due to treasuring the franchise in a different way than other groups do due largely to the historic discrimination and disenfranchisement experienced by that group.

Black turnout was pretty sh!tty in the late 20th century.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Cory Booker seems like a fairly likely future POTUS, IMO.

Kamala Harris too.

[hopper]

Cory Booker seems like a fairly likely future POTUS, IMO.

Maybe.