Will the GOP achieve a "strike" tomorrow ?
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  Will the GOP achieve a "strike" tomorrow ?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Will the GOP achieve a "strike" tomorrow ?  (Read 684 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 03, 2014, 11:32:37 AM »




R+10 ?
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ShamDam
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 12:39:40 PM »
No. I think the Dems will hold NH and NC. From there, it is quite possible -- though not necessarily probable -- that at least one other Democrat will hold on. Whether Orman wins at this point I suppose is irrelevant.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 12:40:16 PM »
I would give it roughly 5:1 odds. A split seems like a slightly safer bet though.
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Badger
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 12:41:03 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2014, 01:23:12 PM by Badger »
No. We absolutely won't win LA outright, and I'd bet solid money against wining either NH or NC, let alone both.

EDIT: And I'd also bet solid money against Perdue winning outright tomorrow either.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2014, 12:50:45 PM »
Quote from: Badger on November 03, 2014, 12:41:03 PM
No. We absolutely won't win LA outright, and I'd bet solid money against wining either NH or NC, let alone both.

LA would count as part of the "strike" tomorrow if all the Republican candidates get a higher %age than the Democratic candidates.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2014, 12:52:08 PM »
Quote from: ChanDan on November 03, 2014, 12:39:40 PM
No. I think the Dems will hold NH and NC. From there, it is quite possible ...
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Maistre
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2014, 12:55:24 PM »
Dems will at least hold on to one of NC/NH if not both.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2014, 12:57:04 PM »
I think too many are falling for the idea that Senate races are independently assorted. I suspect that the conditions that would be needed to produce a Tillis upset would be highly likely to also result in a Brown upset (and vice-versa).
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2014, 12:59:27 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2014, 01:13:20 PM by Clarko95 »
It's really, really unlikely, but not entirely impossible. However, like 2010, many of the GOP pickups would be by a razor-thin margin of a few thousand votes.


If it happened, I would be surprised but not totally shocked, however I wouldn't bet on it happening.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2014, 01:26:36 PM »
It is within the realm of possibility.

If Republicans pick up the obvious (Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Arkansas, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska), then take Louisiana and Georgia in the runoffs, I think that would be us meeting expectations, based on what polling has shown. Anything less will come as a slight disappointment, though I will still be happy with anything over 50. Part of this is about building a strong enough majority so that we can keep it after 2016.

Winning either North Carolina or New Hampshire would be exceeding expectations - I think we could win one, but it would be tough to win both. Time will tell!
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2014, 01:30:14 PM »
At this point, an R+10 night is likelier than Democrats retaining the majority IMO
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2014, 01:36:16 PM »
No,  Scott Brown will lose New Hampshire.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2014, 01:46:56 PM »
Quote from: Del Tachi on November 03, 2014, 01:30:14 PM
At this point, an R+10 night is likelier than Democrats retaining the majority IMO

On FiveThirtyEight, R+10 has a 6% chance, Dems retaining control has a 24% chance.
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2014, 02:21:45 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on November 03, 2014, 01:46:56 PM
Quote from: Del Tachi on November 03, 2014, 01:30:14 PM
At this point, an R+10 night is likelier than Democrats retaining the majority IMO

On FiveThirtyEight, R+10 has a 6% chance, Dems retaining control has a 24% chance.

Sounds about right.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2014, 07:22:40 PM »
Not happening (normal).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2014, 07:32:33 PM »
No, im almost certain that Shaheen holds in NH.  Hagan could still lose, but it would be a minor upset. 
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