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Author Topic: ME: MPRC (D) Michaud +1  (Read 3228 times)
njwes
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« on: November 03, 2014, 03:33:14 pm »
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LePage (R): 44.4%
Michaud (D): 44.7%
Cutler (I): 9.2%
Undecided: 1.6%

MoE: +/- 3.25%

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Joshua
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 03:43:07 pm »
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Michaud +1 as in he's +1 since their last survey??

[Edit]: Well, I guess he's technically +1 if you round...
« Last Edit: November 03, 2014, 03:48:35 pm by Joshua »Logged
IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 03:48:15 pm »
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Looks like UNH is set to get embarrassed...again.
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njwes
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 04:01:39 pm »
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Michaud +1 as in he's +1 since their last survey??

[Edit]: Well, I guess he's technically +1 if you round...

+1.3 just seems silly Wink
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2014, 05:32:04 pm »
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Wonderful news!
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shua
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2014, 05:36:11 pm »
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Michaud +1 as in he's +1 since their last survey??

[Edit]: Well, I guess he's technically +1 if you round...

+1.3 just seems silly Wink

you mean .3?  that would be a "tie."
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Thomas D
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2014, 05:36:30 pm »
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This is going to be so close.
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2014, 05:44:55 pm »
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D firm with Decimals
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2014, 06:06:16 pm »
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Even with people casting protest votes and some low-info voters unaware Cutler has dropped out, there's no way he's approaching 10% tomorrow. Most of those voters will go for Michaud.
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njwes
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2014, 06:32:59 pm »
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Michaud +1 as in he's +1 since their last survey??

[Edit]: Well, I guess he's technically +1 if you round...

+1.3 just seems silly Wink

you mean .3?  that would be a "tie."

Oh lol whoops. Oh well, my bad. Margin of error!
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2014, 08:38:20 pm »
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New Poll: Maine Governor by Maine People's Research Center on 2014-11-02

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, I: 9%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2014, 09:02:20 pm »
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This will be the last race I move, but I still think LePage has a good chance of pulling an upset and winning.
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2014, 09:05:50 pm »
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This will be the last race I move, but I still think LePage has a good chance of pulling an upset and winning.

By winning a majority of the inevitable dropoff of Cutler voters? How does that happen?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2014, 09:06:42 pm »
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This will be the last race I move, but I still think LePage has a good chance of pulling an upset and winning.

By winning a majority of the inevitable dropoff of Cutler voters? How does that happen?

Or former Cutler voters just not showing up. Or the general upward direction that LePage has felt over the course of the campaign catching up at the polls.
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2014, 09:15:25 pm »
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This will be the last race I move, but I still think LePage has a good chance of pulling an upset and winning.

By winning a majority of the inevitable dropoff of Cutler voters? How does that happen?

Or former Cutler voters just not showing up. Or the general upward direction that LePage has felt over the course of the campaign catching up at the polls.

What upward direction? LePage has been stuck at 40% the entire campaign.
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shua
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2014, 09:18:30 pm »
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Even with people casting protest votes and some low-info voters unaware Cutler has dropped out, there's no way he's approaching 10% tomorrow. Most of those voters will go for Michaud.

Cutler hasn't dropped out.  It is expected that his support has been cut in half, but there's no reason to expect it will evaporate completely.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2014, 09:22:52 pm by shua »Logged
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2014, 09:25:12 pm »
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Dominating!!!!
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2014, 09:25:34 pm »
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I think people underestimate how many people are going to happily trot to the polls and vote for Cutler.
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2014, 09:36:48 pm »
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Even with people casting protest votes and some low-info voters unaware Cutler has dropped out, there's no way he's approaching 10% tomorrow. Most of those voters will go for Michaud.

Cutler hasn't dropped out.  It is expected that his support has been cut in half, but there's no reason to expect it will evaporate completely.

Let's not debate semantics between a "suspended" campaign and "dropping out".

I don't see how Cutler voters not showing up to the polls helps LePage one iota. A liberal independent suspending his campaign two weeks before election day is bound to help the Democrat in what was all ready a neck and neck race with an arch-conservative.
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2014, 09:43:06 pm »
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Even with people casting protest votes and some low-info voters unaware Cutler has dropped out, there's no way he's approaching 10% tomorrow. Most of those voters will go for Michaud.

Cutler hasn't dropped out.  It is expected that his support has been cut in half, but there's no reason to expect it will evaporate completely.

Let's not debate semantics between a "suspended" campaign and "dropping out".

I don't see how Cutler voters not showing up to the polls helps LePage one iota. A liberal independent suspending his campaign two weeks before election day is bound to help the Democrat in what was all ready a neck and neck race with an arch-conservative.


It's not good news for LePage that Cutler has moved out. What I'm saying is, the general movement of this race, it may not matter, especially if Cutler voters feel so meh about Michaud that they just decide not to vote. If a large portion of Cutler voters just don't show up, then LePage has a shot. If former Cutler voters come in in large numbers to vote for Michaud, then chances are LePage loses by 2-3 points (last PPP poll had LePage within 5 of Michaud in a head to head, chances are with the few Cutler voters still left, that reduces a good amount).
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shua
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2014, 10:14:27 pm »
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Even with people casting protest votes and some low-info voters unaware Cutler has dropped out, there's no way he's approaching 10% tomorrow. Most of those voters will go for Michaud.

Cutler hasn't dropped out.  It is expected that his support has been cut in half, but there's no reason to expect it will evaporate completely.

Let's not debate semantics between a "suspended" campaign and "dropping out".

I don't see how Cutler voters not showing up to the polls helps LePage one iota. A liberal independent suspending his campaign two weeks before election day is bound to help the Democrat in what was all ready a neck and neck race with an arch-conservative.


A suspended campaign doesn't continue to buy TV ads.  That's not just semantics.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2014, 12:42:17 pm »
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Thinking Lepage may actually pull this off again!
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Nathan
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2014, 12:43:04 pm »
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気持ち悪い。
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Professor Nathan. A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights. Can you really trust him?

Yeah that's right, I said Siam. Why don't you go tell Pedro Martinez
njwes
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2014, 01:19:19 pm »
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気持ち悪い。

素晴らしい!

Literally no sense though of who will win this one, another exciting one.
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Nathan
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2014, 01:22:41 pm »
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気持ち悪い。

素晴らしい!

Literally no sense though of who will win this one, another exciting one.

It's both. It's 素晴らしい that it's this close because you're right, it is exciting; it's 気持ち悪い that it's this close because Paul fucking LePage, although I don't expect you to agree on that.
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Professor Nathan. A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights. Can you really trust him?

Yeah that's right, I said Siam. Why don't you go tell Pedro Martinez
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