ZANU-PF Congress December 2-7 - choosing a Crown Prince and a course

[politicus]

The Congress was effectively a wash.

- Nothing was decided on the economy or any other major policy area.

- The election of the Presidium: Secretary for Administration, two Deputy Presidents/Second Secretaries and the Chairman is postponed to Wednesday or Thursday, because Mugabe "needs time to think". Only two people were "elected" to the Politburo: Grace and Robert Mugabe, the rest will be appointed later.

- No successor was chosen and Mugabe is officially ZANU-PFs presidential candidate in 2018 (which is ridiculous..)

- Joice Mujuru is still VP and will not be removed until Mugabe does a reshuffle of the cabinet, whenever he pleases (unless they decide to arrest her, but that seems unlikely now). She is out of the CC and is in principle just an ordinary card caring member now. In addition to Mujuru, Nutasa and Goche three other cabinet members are out of the CC, and are therefore unlikely to survive as ministers.

Mugabe has stated that no person involved in factionalism will become VP or enter the Presidium, and this likely indicates that he will bypass Mnangagwa, which will infuriate "the Crocodile" and his supporters.

The party constitution is now totally in shambles, Mugabe ordered a reelection of the Mashonaland East CC delegation because there were too many Kaukonde supporters among them! So any pretense of party democracy is out the window.

The big question is if Mugabe still has the authority to joggle with the party however he pleases. Right now he has basically pissed everybody off (except, crucially, the security chiefs, which have been left untouched).

Minister of Defence Sydney Sekeramayi is under fire for protecting Ray Kaukonde, the former party chair in his home province Mashonaland East. Since Mugabe has ordered new elections to the CC in Mashonland East it looks like Sekeramayi wont get into the CC, which de facto means he is out of the cabinet as well. Since he is the top securocrat, this is a bit surprising, but getting a new Minister of Defence from another faction is will weaken Mnanngagwa and prevent him from being too powerfull, so in that way it is quite logical.

EDIT: Sydney Sekeramayi and Minister of Health David Parirenyatwa are amongst the Zanu PF CC members from Mashonaland East, that did not get "reelected2 after Mugabe threw out the original election, so Zimbabwes top securocrat is out.

[politicus]

The post-Congress purging has started:

Joice Mujuru is now officially fired as VP (apparently she was fired yesterday evening)
Energy Minister Dzikamai Mavhaire and his deputy Munacho Mutezo, Didymus Mutasa (Presidential Affairs), Nicholas Goche (Labour), Francis Nhema (Youth and Empowerment) and Sylvester Nguni (Minister of State) have also been sacked. As many as 11 ministers face the boot, so more names will drop.
These are mainly the designated villains + a couple of Mujurus closest allies, so no surprises. Its Minister of Defense that will be the interesting one, but the woman who a year ago looked like she would be the next leader of Zimbabwe is now officially just an ordinary (and unemployed..) rank and file member of ZANU-PF, albeit a stinking rich one (her husband Solomon Mujuru left a 9 billion US dollars estate and the family likely still retains most of the loot).

List of fired ministers (:

Didymus Mutasa (Presidential Affairs)
Webster Shamu (Information Communication Technologies, Postal and Courier Services)
Francis Nhema (Youth, Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment)
Olivia Muchena (Higher and Tertiary Education, Science and Technology Development)
Dzikamai Mavhaire (Energy and Power Development)
Nicholas Goche (Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare)
Simbaneuta Mudarikwa (Minister of State for Mashonaland East Province)
Munacho Mutezo (Deputy Minister Energy and Power Development).

[Simfan34]

"Solomon Mujuru left a 9 billion US dollars estate"

Of course he did...

[politicus]

The Crocodille did get to be VP and is in a strong position to replace Mugabe, if he outlives him.. Mnangagwa is 68 himself. The other deputy is Phelekezela Mphoko, also from Mnangawas faction. Its actually a little surprising, that Mnanggwas most trusted people are so strongly represented.

Mphoko is Ndebele and the only former Zipra top  commander who has remained loyal to Mugabe. He is one of the founding Zipra commanders and went on to become Zapu’s representative in Maputo where he rubbed shoulders with senior Zanu and ANC bigwigs, including Mugabe and South African President Jacob Zuma, during the liberation war. Mphoko has served as ambassador to Botswana, Russia and South Africa. He is also personally close to Zuma (who has an uneasy, to say the least, relationship with Mugabe).

Chombo is Minister of Local Affairs. He is Mugabe's nephew and the "facilitator" behind Grace Mugabes entry to party politics. He almost went too far when he manipulated the appointment of headmen and chiefs in Mugabe's Gushungo clan to get his own loyalists in control, but succeeded and now controls the clan giving him an important power base.

The post of national chairman is scrapped meaning a demotion of Simon Khaya Moyo (Mujuru faction), who is out of the Presidium and becomes party spokesperson. Three members of the "Gang of Four" (with Grace Mugabe as a fifth member) are in, but not on heavy positions. Sydney Sekeramayi from the Mujuru faction survived, but didn't get National Security, even though War Veterans is a heavy post in ZANU-PF. It will be interesting if he survives as Minister of Defence.

Mnangagwa and Mphoko are expected also to to be sworn in as State vice presidents on Friday and Mugabe says he will announced his new cabinet either Thursday or Friday.

Full list of the Zanu PF politburo:

Presidium:

Robert Mugabe, Zanu PF President

Emmerson Mnangagwa 1st Zanu PF Vice President

Phelekezela Mphoko 2nd Zanu PF Vice President


Others (22):

Secretary for Administration: Ignatius Chombo

Secretary for the Commissariat: Saviour Kasukuwere (Gang of Four)

Finance: Obert Mpofu (Min. of Transport, ex Min. of Mines, which made him exxtremely rich.. - Ndebele, neutral Mugabe loyalist - former Mujuru faction, then closer to Mnangagwa faction)

External Affairs: Simbabrashe Mumbengegwi

National Security: Kembo Mohadi

Transport and Social Welfare: Oppah Muchinguri (ex Womens League boss - Gang of Four)

Information and Publicity: Simon Khaya Moyo (Mujuru faction)

Legal Affairs: Patrick Chinamasa (Mnangagwa faction no. 3)

Economic Empowerment Policy: Mike Bimha

Production and Labour: Josiah D. Hungwe

Health and Child Welfare: Cleveria Chizema

Economic Affairs: Christopher Mushohwe

Women's Affairs: Grace Mugabe (Gang of Four associated)

Youth Affairs: Pupurai Togarepi

Education: Joram McDonald Gumbo

Gender and Culture: Thokozile Mathuthu

Disabled: Joshua Malinga

Land Reform and Resettlement: Cain Mathema

Science and Tech: Jonathan Moyo (no. 2 in Mnangagwa faction - Gang of Four)

Business Development: Sithembiso Nyoni

Environment and Tourism: Prisca Mupfumira

War Veterans: Sydney Sekeramayi (Minister of Defence) (Mujuru faction - seen as possble successor by many top officers)

[politicus]

One important aspect of Mnangagwa's appointment is his close ties to China - the main backer of the regime (every dictator's big brother and protector in today's world). Mugabe recently went to Beijing and there is a persistent rumour that they told him to appoint Mnangagwa as a stalwart of the regime and stabilisator, even though he might have preferred someone weaker, so he could remain in control. Mnangagwa has supported the indigenisation process where foreign companies are forced to sell a 51% share to locals, but made sure this doesn't apply to Chinese companies.
Another interesting aspect is if they will now also apply the indigenisation program to foreign banks operating in Zimbabwe, this hasn't been the case so far and would lead to capital  flight if they do it. Mujuru was against it, but the Mnangagwa faction has supported it as a logical next step in the indigenisation process.

A brief overview of the current Zimbabwe-China relationship

http://allafrica.com/stories/201412101485.html

The ZANU ties to China goes back all the way to the liberation war where they were backed by China, while ZAPU was the Soviet choice.

[politicus]

Portrait of Mnangagwa and his way to power - Crocodile Style:

http://nehandaradio.com/2014/12/11/year-crocodile/

[politicus]

Law professor Lovemore Madhuku (also civil rights activist with his own NGO) has approached the Constitutional Court challenging the appointment of Emmerson Mnangagwa and Phelekezela Mphoko as VPs. The Constitution allows the President to appoint one or two VPs at the start of his term, not fire his VP and replace her with two - also some procedural matters.

MDC says they want to impeach Mugabe for his unlawful firing of Mujuru. It will take a lot of disgruntled Mujuru supporters for that to succeed, since it take 2/3 support in parliament to accomplish, and ZANU-PF Mujuru supporters will likely not accept a direct challenge to Mugabe from the MDC. I wish they had tried to dissolve parliament instead, as they talked about, that wouldn't carry the same symbolic weight and I could see more Mujuru supporters voting for that.

The two party VPs were sworn in as State VPs today. There had been talk about letting the party and state VPs be different people to not concentrate too much power in one person (and allow Mugabe a free hand) and get around the provision that one of the party VPs are supposed to be a woman,, but Mnangagwa gets both the top deputy assignments - party and state.

[politicus]

Mugabe has reshuffled his Cabinet to replace Mujuru and the fired ministers. The two Vice Presidents and the newly appointed eighth ministers, and two deputies were sworn in today at 10am.

Mnangagwa will continue with as Minister of Justice, Legal and Parliamentary Affairs, while Mphoko will be responsible for no lless than "the promotion of National Healing, Peace and Reconciliation." Good luck with that..

Simon Khaya Moyo, was appointed to the new portfolio of Minister of Economic Planning.

The Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Services: Prisca Mupfumira, who replaces Nicholas Goche who was sacked for his involvement in the alleged plot to assassinate the President and replace him with ousted VP Mujuru.

Oppah Muchinguri; who was Minister of Women Affairs, Gender and Community Development; has been assigned to the Ministry of Higher and Tertiary Education, Science and Technology Development, taking over from Dr Olivia Muchena who was also fired.

An appointment for the Ministry of Women Affairs, Gender and Community Development will be made later.

Former Deputy Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Samuel Udenge was appointed Minister of Energy and Power Development, replacing Dzikamai Mavhaire. Udenge will be deputised by Tsitsi Muzenda.

Manicaland Minister of State Christopher Mushohwe was moved to the Ministry of Youth Development, Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment, replacing Francis Nhema.

Mandi Chimene — Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association spokesperson — takes over from Mushohwe as the Minister of State for Manicaland Province, while former Deputy Minister of Local Government, Public Works and National Housing Joel Biggie Matiza is now the new Minister of State for Mashonaland East Province, replacing the ousted Simbaneuta Mudarikwa.

Former Deputy Minister of Information, Media and Broadcasting Services Supa Mandiwanzira was promoted to head the Ministry of Information Communication Technology and Courier Services that was under the fired Webster Shamu.

Monica Mutsvangwa, replaces Mandiwanzira as Deputy Minister of Information, Media and Broadcasting Services.

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Ambassador Christopher Mutsvangwa was promoted to lead the newly-created Ministry of Welfare Services for the War Veterans, War Collaborators, Former Political Detainees and Restrictees.

So:

Emmerson Mnangagwa: Vice President

Phelekezela Mphoko: Vice President

Prisca Mupfumira: Minister of Public Service, Labour and Social Services

Simon Khaya Moyo, was appointed to the new portfolio of Minister of Economic Planning

Gang of Four member Oppah Muchinguri: Minister of Higher and Tertiary Education, Science and Technology Development

Samuel Udenge: Minister of Energy and Power Development

Christopher Mushohwe: Minister of Youth Development, Indegenisation and Economic Empowerment

Supa Mandiwanzira: Minister of Information, Communication Technology and Courier Services

Christopher Mutsvangwa: Minister of Welfare Services for War Veterans, War Collaborators, Former Political Detainees and Restrictees

Mandi Chimene: Minister of State for Manicaland Province

Joel Matiza: Minister of State for Mashonaland East Province

Tsitsi Muzenda: Deputy Minister of Energy and Power Development

Monica Mutsvangwa: Deputy Minister of Information, Media and Broadcasting Services

Grace Mugabe not in the Cabinet, but Womens Affairs is still vacant, so she may still get in.