Will Paul Davis Hit 50%?

[KCDem]

I know, I know...a certain Pennsylvania Republican will object to the premise, but Paul Davis will win. Republicans in Kansas have accepted this for the past week and they're going all in to save Roberts now. Anyway, the question is how big of a margin will Davis get. Can he cross 50%? I think he barely misses given the Libertarian who I think takes about 5%.

[Lief 🗽]

I think it's something like 49-46 in the end, with the libertarian taking the rest.

[Keystone Phil]

Losing candidates don't get 50% of the vote. Next...

[KCDem]

Losing candidates don't get 50% of the vote. Next...

LOL

[GaussLaw]

I think he'll just get about there.  50.0% is a pretty good guess, as voters do not like Brownback and the Davis-Obama thing never panned out.

BTW, KCDem, we seem to be agreeing a lot more lately, far more than before.  Have you changed your mind or something?  I think you even gave Arkansas and Kentucky to the GOP.

[Thomas D]

He'll win with 49.682%

P.S. I get kind of loopy on election eve

[KCDem]

I think he'll just get about there.  50.0% is a pretty good guess, as voters do not like Brownback and the Davis-Obama thing never panned out.

BTW, KCDem, we seem to be agreeing a lot more lately, far more than before.  Have you changed your mind or something?  I think you even gave Arkansas and Kentucky to the GOP.

Oh I still think that Democrats are underestimated by about 3 points across the battlegrounds (as has been the case in the past 2 cycles) given the difficulty of reaching left-leaning demographics. Unfortunately, in Arkansas and Kentucky the margin is too large to overcome. I still think McConnell wins by less than Cotton but who knows?