Which senatorial race is the hardest to predict?

[solarstorm]

I refuse to include Arkansas.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Alaska, as we still don't know if the polling bias is anti-incumbent or anti-Republican, and polling has shown it being very close anyway. Honestly I could see Begich winning by 5 or Sullivan winning by 5 at this point.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alaska

[Boston Bread]

Alaska duh, but Kansas and Louisiana are runner-ups.

[moderatevoter]

Alaska.

[7,052,770]

Iowa. On the one hand, Ernst is leading all the polls and seems like the clear favorite.

But on the other hand, is Iowa seriously going to elect a crazy person who calls Obama a dictator and calls for his impeachment, who wants to illegalize birth control pills and honestly believes the U.N. is going to round up American farmers and force-move them to cities? It's just unfathomable that Iowans would actually choose to have someone like that represent them for six years...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Iowa. On the one hand, Ernst is leading all the polls and seems like the clear favorite.

But on the other hand, is Iowa seriously going to elect a Birther who wants to illegalize birth control pills and honestly believes the U.N. is going to round up American farmers and force-move them to cities? It's just unfathomable that Iowans would actually choose to have someone like that represent them for six years...

Ernst is just against forcing insurance companies to provide birth control. She doesn't support banning OTC sales.

And source for her being a Birther?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Honestly... most of them. But in particular, Alaska, Iowa, Georgia and Colorado.

[Recalcuate]

Statistically, it's Kansas. It's basically a tie with a tiny Independent lean.

[Adam Griffin]

Alaska shouldn't be included in this. It's a no-brainer, as it's in a class of its own in this regard. Excluding it, I'd say Colorado or Georgia (merely due to rapid demographic shifts and how pollsters tend to sample using old Census data).

[7,052,770]

Iowa. On the one hand, Ernst is leading all the polls and seems like the clear favorite.

But on the other hand, is Iowa seriously going to elect a Birther who wants to illegalize birth control pills and honestly believes the U.N. is going to round up American farmers and force-move them to cities? It's just unfathomable that Iowans would actually choose to have someone like that represent them for six years...

Ernst is just against forcing insurance companies to provide birth control. She doesn't support banning OTC sales.

And source for her being a Birther?

She strongly and proudly supports a "Personhood" law, which would define zygote (the single-cell post-fertilization) as a human being. Because birth control pills are suspected to make the uterine wall more hostile to a fertilized egg and prevent implantation, legal scholars believe that should a "Personhood" law ever go into effect, birth control pills would be illegal. It's all theoretical, of course, since no such law ever has been, nor ever will be, implemented, but the birth control reason is explicitly why, for example, Cory Gardner has flip-flopped and no longer supports the law. And why Mississippi, perhaps the most anti-abortion state, rejected "Personhood" 60-40.

As for your second question, it looks like I may have gotten my details mixed up. She apparently isn't a birther, but has called Obama a dictator and advocated his impeachment. My mistake, but it's just as bad on her part and doesn't change my larger point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Alaska followed by Louisiana. Aside from NH, all of these races are fairly competitive, but we don't even know if AK or LA will be that close.

[Maxwell]

Alaska (duh) followed by Kansas. Kansas has Orman ahead but it's kind of up in the air about what really happens. I still say Roberts has the advantage because of the GOP, but the bottom could fall out on election day if Brownback goes down significantly.

[Eraserhead]

Alaska but basically all of those races could go either way.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kansas

[dmmidmi]

Alaska
.
.
.
Louisiana
Kansas
.
.
.
The rest

[SWE]

Alaska. This is not debatable

[tmthforu94]

Alaska is the obvious answer.

Besides that, Kansas. I even live here and have no clue what is going to happen. Voters are sick of the negative advertising - it is on a level we aren't used to. Undecideds are so high, so a lot of folks are making their final decision today.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Definitely Alaska.

[Donnie]

Alaska followed by North Carolina.

[Vosem]

Alaska far and away, followed by Kansas, followed maybe by CO/NH. I have a great deal of confidence in the result in Louisiana: Landrieu will place first, in the mid-40s, followed by Cassidy in the mid-30s and Maness in the mid-teens. Then there'll be a runoff in December featuring Cassidy winning by a few percentage points. But KS and especially AK are far ahead of the pack.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Alaska is the correct answer.

[Torie]

North Carolina for me.

[RogueBeaver]

Alaska is the correct answer.