Official Final Prediction Thread

[Eraserhead]

Brown winning while Udall survives? I wish I could make my prediction that interesting.

They're both based on patterns I've noticed in past elections.

Democrats consistently do better than they poll in Colorado, and in New Hampshire the voters often have huge last-minute swings that the polls only pick up partially if at all

Good points. Who can forget the NH Democratic Primary in '08 or KEN BUCKKK? I think both will be very close and you could end up being right. Still had to take the boring route on those two races though because I think the swings are happening just a little too late in both. Definitely hope I'm wrong about CO!

[Hash]

Senate: 52R-45-3



I have no clue whatsoever about Alaska, and both Colorado and Iowa may potentially go either way although both do tilt R.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Brown winning while Udall survives? I wish I could make my prediction that interesting.

They're both based on patterns I've noticed in past elections.

Democrats consistently do better than they poll in Colorado, and in New Hampshire the voters often have huge last-minute swings that the polls only pick up partially if at all

Good points. Who can forget the NH Democratic Primary in '08 or KEN BUCKKK? I think both will be very close and you could end up being right. Still had to take the boring route on those two races though because I think the swings are happening just a little too late in both. Definitely hope I'm wrong about CO!

I will say on NH that what it tends to do, is to flirt with the 'other' ... then snap back to the ones they were destined to be with, granted it's not always this close to the day or this physically close. It helps that the national dynamics meant this race was never destined to be a blowout (although it's closer than it deserves to be).

2008: Obama v Clinton and Romney v McCain
2012: Romney v Everyone, but mostly Huntsman and Paul and in the General, they flirted hard with Romney but Obama beat him there than by a bigger margin than he beat him in PA.

[Lambsbread]

Final Senate predictions:



This would give the Democrats a 51-49 lead in the Senate. Perhaps a bit of wishful thinking and partisan hackery, but I do think Braley pulls out Iowa and Nunn pulls out Georgia. I'm not at all confident with the latter statement, but I just have a gut feeling.

[Miles]

My final calls:

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

local races

VA Senate:  52 Warner-44 Gillespie-4 Sarvis

VA-1: 60 Wittman-36 Mosher-2 Parker-1 Hailey (WI)
VA-2: 55 Rigell-44 Patrick
VA-3: 95 Scott-5 WI
VA-4: 57 Forbes-41 Fausz-2 Brown

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

R+7, making 52 seats. R+8 if Orman caucuses with Republicans.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

[Frodo]

Same as I have always said, though with minor alterations:

The GOP will hold on to Georgia, Mississippi, Kentucky, Kansas, and South Dakota, and will pick up West Virginia, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina whether on election day, or in the subsequent run-offs, depending on the state.  A lot of these will be close, and down to the wire nail biters, but I think the GOP will ultimately pull it off.  Virginia will get even closer too as election day approaches, and with Sen. Mark Warner needlessly meddling into state politics, he will find himself winning only by single digits.  New Hampshire will be close also, but Jeane Shaheen should hold on this year.  

So the GOP comes out on top with 54 seats.  And with Angus King and Joe Manchin either switching parties outright, or simply caucusing with the GOP, that brings their governing total to 56.  
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As for the House, I will only say that the GOP will win all three of West Virginia's congressional districts, and that GA 12 will also go to the GOP -narrowly to be sure, but I think John Barrow should enjoy what time he has left in the House before January 2015.  

I am not predicting final numbers....   

I was apparently too generous to the Democrats, particularly John Barrow..