Embittered election postmortem (please let's just have this one thread to vent) (user search)
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  Embittered election postmortem (please let's just have this one thread to vent) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Embittered election postmortem (please let's just have this one thread to vent)  (Read 6541 times)
jd1433
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Posts: 41


« on: November 05, 2014, 05:48:51 PM »

One good thing about this election that benefits all Americans is that conservative rich people, especially bankers, who were holding onto their money out of fear of the Democrats will likely be empowered to spend and invest even if nothing concrete as changed to the law. Republican wins like this DO historically inspire investor confidence and that will lead to a slow but eventual clearing of all the stimulus money banks have been hoarding.

Banking/Finance doesn't quite work that way although not bad.

-All securities have to be owned by someone. If I invest by buying securities from someone else than they have to sell those securities to me. Granted this simplistically ignores new offerings, but still...

-Banks are always salivating to lend. They're not deploying their substantial cash reserves not out of fear, but instead because:
1) The implementation of Basel III capital ratios make bank capital expensive and bank liquidity (cash/deposits/etc.) cheap. By looking only at the latter and concluding they're holding that money back by choice misses a bigger picture of what is happening.
2) The financial world sees limited available opportunities for profitable lower risk lending because there is limited capacity for additional debt out there and those that do have capacity don't have that high of a demand for it.


Don't forget the 4 C's of credit: Character (Credit histories are only slowly improving), capacity (indebtedness/incomes are only slowly improving so the market sees limited capacity for debt), collateral (most collateral out there is already encumbered), Capital (reserves replenishing slowly).
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jd1433
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Posts: 41


« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2014, 05:59:21 PM »

Jesus do I really have to cheer up some of the apocalyptic ones?


Come on guys... real GOP legislation can't pass at the federal level without 60 senators and a presidency following this election. Real Dem legislation couldn't pass before the election without owning the House and 60 senators.


Every single piece of legislation since Jimmy Carter ***was negotiated*** between the parties with exception of Obamacare (60 seat senate majority), Federal Stimulus (60 seat senate majority) and budget/ways and means between the years of 1993-94, 2003-2006, and 2009-2010 because they can't be filibustered.


Nothing meaningful has really changed at the federal level other some stuff around the edges, a tiny change in leverage during negotiations, and a bit more movement for the GOP to the highly coveted Federal Trifecta that includes a 60 seat senate majority that probably wont ever materialize any time soon (the 60 senate seats at least).
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