Will Mia Love lose in 2016?

[jamestroll]

Also the race factor probably contributes to 1 to 2% loss. She also has had several innocuous controversies. Not really politically damaging but they are there.

She only lost in 2012 due to the Matheson brand. I do not think Matheson will be coming back though. He is a lobbyist now and done with politics. Though he does have a war chest. Perhaps he could win an open gubernatorial election if he really wanted to.

[hopper]

Mia Love's District-I think they like incumbents since they sent Matheson to office from 2002-2014.

[jamestroll]

Mia Love's District-I think they like incumbents since they sent Matheson to office from 2002-2014.

lol? what?

UT-04 is barely anything like the UT-02 Matheson represented. In fact, he took on a lot of new constituents when he made the district switch. UT-02 was largely eastern Salt Lake County plus all of southern Utah linked with Wasatch and part of Utah counties.

UT-04 is basically central and southern Salt Lake County plus parts of Utah County and a tiny slice of rural Utah.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So why is she such a bad candidate in general, though? Her elections should not be even remotely this close, nor should she have lost to Matheson in 2012. This is a double-digit R PVI district.

Romney skewed the districts PVI. It is not overwhelmingly Republican. Also 82% of the district is in Salt Lake County. Salt Lake County routinely elects Democrats. That even includes many parts of that district. Plus there was some desire to have one Democrat in high office in Utah.

A wave could get Love, but I think she is more entrenched now. Open seat in a Democratic wave year would be interesting though. Still, her opponent would not be able to defeat her if he/she/it can not give a good reason to vote against her or for the opponent.

Of course your party made a vicious gerrymander. It would not have been too difficult to draw a district entirely in Salt Lake County that Democrats could routinely win.

I know its a very controversial opinion I have but I think the main requirement of Congressional Districts should be that they make as much geographic sense as feasible and correspond to population requirements.

That makes sense, and that's how I feel about congressional districts as well. Maximum compactness is the ideal.

[Kingpoleon]

Mia Love is the best politician, ideology-wise, of all the Utahan federal legislators in my opinion.

[Figueira]

Mia Love is the best politician, ideology-wise, of all the Utahan federal legislators in my opinion.

What makes her the best? I know the competition is (at least IMO) terrible.

[Zioneer]

So why is she such a bad candidate in general, though? Her elections should not be even remotely this close, nor should she have lost to Matheson in 2012. This is a double-digit R PVI district.

Romney skewed the districts PVI. It is not overwhelmingly Republican. Also 82% of the district is in Salt Lake County. Salt Lake County routinely elects Democrats. That even includes many parts of that district. Plus there was some desire to have one Democrat in high office in Utah.

A wave could get Love, but I think she is more entrenched now. Open seat in a Democratic wave year would be interesting though. Still, her opponent would not be able to defeat her if he/she/it can not give a good reason to vote against her or for the opponent.

Of course your party made a vicious gerrymander. It would not have been too difficult to draw a district entirely in Salt Lake County that Democrats could routinely win.

I know its a very controversial opinion I have but I think the main requirement of Congressional Districts should be that they make as much geographic sense as feasible and correspond to population requirements.

Completely agree here. We Democrats will have to find a decent candidate for UT-04, and we can't use Doug Owens anymore, and nor is Matheson willing to run again so far. So... Ben McAdams is our best bet. If he wants to run. If not, we're going to have a lot of C-lister choices.

Mia Love is the best politician, ideology-wise, of all the Utahan federal legislators in my opinion.

What makes her the best? I know the competition is (at least IMO) terrible.

Honestly, I dislike Mia Love, but I have to agree. Rob Bishop is a corrupt old toad who wants to sue the Feds for public lands so he can drill it all up, Chris Stewart is somehow a spineless coward while also being a vaguely apocalyptic nut, and Jason Chaffetz is a slimy, grossly ambitious ladder-climber who seeks nothing more than his own power.

Mia Love by contrast is just a Republican foot soldier who helps the GOP deflect charges of racism. Lackluster and far too conservative, but not particularly awful.

[Kingpoleon]

What wolfentoad said, plus Hatch is corrupt and a liar at best, while Lee is very much an extremist.

I also think Mia Love is a bit more moderate than she gets credit for.

[jamestroll]

I also think Mia Love is a bit more moderate than she gets credit for.

She is.. if she went to far right Democrats could launch a credible challenge to her real quick.