Will Mia Love lose in 2016?

[Knives]

Girl could barely win in a district that was R+17, in Utah in 2014!

That's not racist.

You are right, it isn't.

[Vega]

I could definitely see Matheson running for Mayor of Salt Lake City.

[Suburbia]

No. Shell be reelected. She's already a star. Shell be the new face for black conservatives because she's more outspoken than Tim Scott.

[Vega]

No. Shell be reelected. She's already a star. Shell be the new face for black conservatives because she's more outspoken than Tim Scott.

Somebody who wins a R+14 district in a election cycle like this by only 2 or 3 points isn't a star.

[publicunofficial]

No. Shell be reelected. She's already a star. Shell be the new face for black conservatives because she's more outspoken than Tim Scott.

She's a star only because pundits have been saying for two cycles how amazing of a candidate she is on paper. Every time it's come to actually being a politician, she's failed at it.


She's the equivalent of a reality show star being famous only because the show tells you that she's famous.

[bedstuy]

No. Shell be reelected. She's already a star. Shell be the new face for black conservatives because she's more outspoken than Tim Scott.

She's a star only because pundits have been saying for two cycles how amazing of a candidate she is on paper. Every time it's come to actually being a politician, she's failed at it.


She's the equivalent of a reality show star being famous only because the show tells you that she's famous.

Has anyone outside of Utah actually listened to Mia Love talk for more than 3 seconds?  I suspect not because if she's a rising political star, that can only mean we have plummeting standards for our leaders.  Mia Love is a more right-wing Sarah Palin.

[Vega]

Mia Love is the Republican's Tulsi Gabbard.

[RedSLC]

I could definitely see Matheson running for Mayor of Salt Lake City.

No. Matheson is far too conservative for the city, and they, excuse me, we have no trouble electing democratic mayors as it is (The city has elected democratic mayors since the mid 1970's, including this guy). It makes much more sense for him to run for Governor (which his father has also held), or Senator.

[Vega]

I could definitely see Matheson running for Mayor of Salt Lake City.

No. Matheson is far too conservative for the city, and they, excuse me, we have no trouble electing democratic mayors as it is (The city has elected democratic mayors since the mid 1970's, including this guy). It makes much more sense for him to run for Governor (which his father has also held), or Senator.

He is more conservative, but it's not like they wouldn't elect him. He has major name recognition and probably money. He could smoke any primary challengers out.

[RedSLC]

I could definitely see Matheson running for Mayor of Salt Lake City.

No. Matheson is far too conservative for the city, and they, excuse me, we have no trouble electing democratic mayors as it is (The city has elected democratic mayors since the mid 1970's, including this guy). It makes much more sense for him to run for Governor (which his father has also held), or Senator.

He is more conservative, but it's not like they wouldn't elect him. He has major name recognition and probably money. He could smoke any primary challengers out.

People here aren't going to vote for conservadem, no matter how much money he dishes out, when a) the city is capable of electing far more left-wing people as mayor, and b) there are plenty of city council members, state legislature members, and even a couple of county council members who would all make far better candidates.

And Matheson isn't going to waste time and money trying to be a mayor, when it be much use of both towards a Senate or Gubernatorial campaign.

In short: this is not going to happen.

[Lincoln Republican]

Maybe. As I've been saying for many, many years, the virulent racism of the morman cult should not be under-estimated. I believe the results in UT-04 last night once and for all vindicate my position.

Your statement is patently ridiculous.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon) is probably the fastest growing Christian religion in the world.

It was no doubt mostly Mormons who elected the first Republican black woman to the U.S. Congress, and racists are not going to be voting for a black person, man or woman.

Mormon voters and Mia Love made history.

Her name may be Mia Love but Mormons love Mia.     

Made history by electing a black woman to Congress?

Welcome to the 20th century.

Have you ever considered, good sir, that this is likely the first opportunity they have had of sending a black woman to Congress?  Had they had that opportunity a century ago no doubt they would have elected her then.   

Not to nit pick, but this is the 21st century. 

My comment flew way over your head.

Oh, I got your snarky remark Mr. Smart Pants.

And it really wasn't all that clever or original.

[Vega]

I could definitely see Matheson running for Mayor of Salt Lake City.

No. Matheson is far too conservative for the city, and they, excuse me, we have no trouble electing democratic mayors as it is (The city has elected democratic mayors since the mid 1970's, including this guy). It makes much more sense for him to run for Governor (which his father has also held), or Senator.

He is more conservative, but it's not like they wouldn't elect him. He has major name recognition and probably money. He could smoke any primary challengers out.

People here aren't going to vote for conservadem, no matter how much money he dishes out, when a) the city is capable of electing far more left-wing people as mayor, and b) there are plenty of city council members, state legislature members, and even a couple of county council members who would all make far better candidates.

And Matheson isn't going to waste time and money trying to be a mayor, when it be much use of both towards a Senate or Gubernatorial campaign.

In short: this is not going to happen.

You have a better grasp of Utahn politics than me, so I'll take your word. Though it's not like being mayor is that much of a step down for a former congressman.

[dmmidmi]

Maybe. As I've been saying for many, many years, the virulent racism of the morman cult should not be under-estimated. I believe the results in UT-04 last night once and for all vindicate my position.

Your statement is patently ridiculous.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon) is probably the fastest growing Christian religion in the world.

It was no doubt mostly Mormons who elected the first Republican black woman to the U.S. Congress, and racists are not going to be voting for a black person, man or woman.

Mormon voters and Mia Love made history.

Her name may be Mia Love but Mormons love Mia.    

Made history by electing a black woman to Congress?

Welcome to the 20th century.

Have you ever considered, good sir, that this is likely the first opportunity they have had of sending a black woman to Congress?  Had they had that opportunity a century ago no doubt they would have elected her then.    

Not to nit pick, but this is the 21st century.  

My comment flew way over your head.

Oh, I got your snarky remark Mr. Smart Pants.

And it really wasn't all that clever or original.

Good. I'm glad that the Republican Party is just now catching up to where the Democrats were when The White Album came out.

[Oakvale]

She strikes me as a moron.  That seems to be the pattern for female or minority GOP candidates sadly. 

Republicans, who supposedly hate affirmative action, find these mediocre politicians like Sarah Palin, Marco Rubio or Mia Love and promote them to prove that they're not racist or sexist.  Sorry Republicans, the fact that you promote these token minorities only proves that you have low expectations of anyone who isn't a white man.

^ Yes.

Never has this been clearer than when Herman Cain was somehow given publicity and put on a debate stage.

[Lincoln Republican]

Maybe. As I've been saying for many, many years, the virulent racism of the morman cult should not be under-estimated. I believe the results in UT-04 last night once and for all vindicate my position.

Your statement is patently ridiculous.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon) is probably the fastest growing Christian religion in the world.

It was no doubt mostly Mormons who elected the first Republican black woman to the U.S. Congress, and racists are not going to be voting for a black person, man or woman.

Mormon voters and Mia Love made history.

Her name may be Mia Love but Mormons love Mia.    

Made history by electing a black woman to Congress?

Welcome to the 20th century.

Have you ever considered, good sir, that this is likely the first opportunity they have had of sending a black woman to Congress?  Had they had that opportunity a century ago no doubt they would have elected her then.    

Not to nit pick, but this is the 21st century.  

My comment flew way over your head.

Oh, I got your snarky remark Mr. Smart Pants.

And it really wasn't all that clever or original.

Good. I'm glad that the Republican Party is just now catching up to where the Democrats were when The White Album came out.

And I'm glad the Democrat Party has become more tolerant since their days when they fought tooth and nail to keep blacks in chains and working on plantations of wealthy white landowners when they stubbornly opposed President Lincoln and the Republican Party in their valiant efforts to outlaw slavery back in the 1860's.

It may have taken the Democrat Party 100 years to come around to the Republican view of freedom for blacks, but better late than never. 

As a result of Republicans freeing the blacks, the Democrat Party now has the black vote that they can take for granted election after election.  Congratulations Dems.

[Lincoln Republican]

Maybe. As I've been saying for many, many years, the virulent racism of the morman cult should not be under-estimated. I believe the results in UT-04 last night once and for all vindicate my position.

Your statement is patently ridiculous.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon) is probably the fastest growing Christian religion in the world.

It was no doubt mostly Mormons who elected the first Republican black woman to the U.S. Congress, and racists are not going to be voting for a black person, man or woman.

Mormon voters and Mia Love made history.

Her name may be Mia Love but Mormons love Mia.    

Made history by electing a black woman to Congress?

Welcome to the 20th century.

Nope, the first Haitian-American elected to Congress. Remember, you liberals love distinctions like that!

The first Haitian-American elected to Congress and the first black Republican woman elected to Congress.

Making double history.

[henster]

Winning by 3 points in an R+14 districts is a big red flag especially considering the midterm electorate in a state like Utah! If she's only winning by 3 in the district with a midterm electorate it makes me think she is toast in a Presidential year. And this whole "national star" thing is not good for her either voters want a representative not a political celebrity see Allen West, if I were her I would lay low and stay out of the spotlight.

[KCDem]

Probably not. But who knows? Hopefully Owens runs again.

[Nichlemn]

Winning by 3 points in an R+14 districts is a big red flag especially considering the midterm electorate in a state like Utah! If she's only winning by 3 in the district with a midterm electorate it makes me think she is toast in a Presidential year. And this whole "national star" thing is not good for her either voters want a representative not a political celebrity see Allen West, if I were her I would lay low and stay out of the spotlight.

I dunno if Presidential turnout is actually any better for Democrats in Utah. And even if it is, it's never uniform. (I remember after 2010, there was this talking point that if a Democrat survived 2010 it was just impossible that they could lose in 2012).

[DrScholl]

Possibly, 50-47 is not a strong win. In 2012, her grasp of local issues was incredibly weak and the district's partisan numbers are less Republican than the 67% that Romney took, which was heavily inflated due to a home state effect of sorts.

[henster]

Winning by 3 points in an R+14 districts is a big red flag especially considering the midterm electorate in a state like Utah! If she's only winning by 3 in the district with a midterm electorate it makes me think she is toast in a Presidential year. And this whole "national star" thing is not good for her either voters want a representative not a political celebrity see Allen West, if I were her I would lay low and stay out of the spotlight.

I dunno if Presidential turnout is actually any better for Democrats in Utah. And even if it is, it's never uniform. (I remember after 2010, there was this talking point that if a Democrat survived 2010 it was just impossible that they could lose in 2012).

Romney romped in Utah because he was Mormon. There will likely be no Mormon Republican running in '16 and the district will revert back to R+3-5.

[DS0816]

Girl could barely win in a district that was R+17, in Utah in 2014!

That's not racist.

Some of us actually discuss statistical numbers.

Try not to pretend otherwise.

[jamestroll]

Yea.. there is a reason I do not like retreads. Pretty much this.

It is all the Jason Kander for Senate hype I hear in 2022 in a rematch against Roy Blunt is nonsense. To be fair, in an open seat or a second Trump Midterm, Kander would have a good shot in winning it.

Kander would be better off running for Governor or an open or vulnerable row office in 2020. I think he could do that for sure.

As a rule though I find that rematches to always falter. The candidate doing the rematch often can not find reasons to give voters to vote for them if their opponent is uncontroversial. Which did happen in Utah 04 in 2016. Also the candidate doing the rematch often gets overconfident. I remember everyone at the Owens campaign thinking that since they got 46% in 2014 they would be able to get 50% in 2016 with presidential year turn out up and Trump on top of the ticket. It does not work like that.

That all being said: if Love runs for Senate in 2018 and the seat becomes open and/or Ben McAdams runs for the seat it could become interesting extremely quickly. No Doug Owens please. Honestly, he should have ran for a lower office this year or in another year.

Rematches rarely work!

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So why is she such a bad candidate in general, though? Her elections should not be even remotely this close, nor should she have lost to Matheson in 2012. This is a double-digit R PVI district.

[jamestroll]

So why is she such a bad candidate in general, though? Her elections should not be even remotely this close, nor should she have lost to Matheson in 2012. This is a double-digit R PVI district.

Romney skewed the districts PVI. It is not overwhelmingly Republican. Also 82% of the district is in Salt Lake County. Salt Lake County routinely elects Democrats. That even includes many parts of that district. Plus there was some desire to have one Democrat in high office in Utah.

A wave could get Love, but I think she is more entrenched now. Open seat in a Democratic wave year would be interesting though. Still, her opponent would not be able to defeat her if he/she/it can not give a good reason to vote against her or for the opponent.

Of course your party made a vicious gerrymander. It would not have been too difficult to draw a district entirely in Salt Lake County that Democrats could routinely win.

I know its a very controversial opinion I have but I think the main requirement of Congressional Districts should be that they make as much geographic sense as feasible and correspond to population requirements.