Will the Republicans retain the Senate after the 2016 Elections?

[RR1997]

It looks like the GOP will net gain 9 seats in the US Senate unless Ed surprises us in VA (probably not going to happen but not impossible), Mary surprises us in LA (very unlikely), or King caucuses with the GOP (not impossible), thus giving them a 54-46 advantage in the Senate. The GOP has net gained more seats than most people thought they would. Can the GOP retain this majority after the 2016 Elections? If you suggested that the GOP has a chance of retaining the Senate after 2016 just two days ago you would've been laughed at, but now it looks possible.

[morgieb]

Depends on who wins the Presidential Election.

[SWE]

Depends on who wins the Presidential Election.

This, but right now I'll say yes

[Talleyrand]

It'll probably be a reverse 2012. A lot of hype about how it could fall to Democrats, but when it's all said and done, it remains comfortably Republican.

A lot of the incumbents that are supposedly sitting ducks, like Kirk, Portman, Toomey, Ayotte, and Johnson, are going to be pretty resilient. Plus Democrats have vulnerable seats in Nevada and Colorado, while if circumstances really get bad, the Washington seat could come into play.

[Nichlemn]

I think it's Lean R. If they win the Presidential election, it's pretty unlikely they're losing 5 seats (though Bush managed to when winning in 2000 from the 1994 map). If they lose, a 4 seat loss is plausible but far from assured.

[BM]

Most likely yes. There are too many blind and evil people in the nation for it to swing back that quickly.

Regardless, I've never been that optimistic about toppling the 2010 class in 2016 assuming a neutral election climate. They admittedly had some decent recruits who simply won by being decent candidates, though Johnson and Kirk seem particularly vulnerable depending on who's against them

[Maxwell]

The extent to which the Senate is Republican now, I doubt it. Kirk's popularity numbers are soft, but he has strong numbers across party lines, so I'm not sure he's the underdog anymore. Portman and Toomey know how to win elections, both of them can make it. The ones I'm most concerned about are Ayotte and Johnson, and Johnson is a very adept campaigner and fundraiser, and Ayotte will probably have good national GOP support (though, like Shaheen, she'll at the whim of the electoral mood). And Burr may face some issues being on the same ballot as Pat McCrory (along with the aftermath of Senator Thom Tillis), but he's ahead so far.

Though if McCain wins his primary, he could be vulnerable. Florida is an interesting case - an open seat probably still goes Republican but, who knows, we could see Senator Gwen Graham or Patrick Murphy.

And that's not including the seat on the Democratic side which could be vulnerable - Michael Bennet is a very anonymous Senator, and depending on who the Colorado Republicans recruit, he could be in trouble.

[RR1997]

The extent to which the Senate is Republican now, I doubt it. Kirk's popularity numbers are soft, but he has strong numbers across party lines, so I'm not sure he's the underdog anymore. Portman and Toomey know how to win elections, both of them can make it. The ones I'm most concerned about are Ayotte and Johnson, and Johnson is a very adept campaigner and fundraiser, and Ayotte will probably have good national GOP support (though, like Shaheen, she'll at the whim of the electoral mood).

Though if McCain wins his primary, he could be vulnerable.

And that's not including the seat on the Democratic side which could be vulnerable - Michael Bennet is a very anonymous Senator, and depending on who the Colorado Republicans recruit, he could be in trouble.

Don't forget about Nevada. If Sandoval decides to run, Reid is in huge trouble.

[Maxwell]

The extent to which the Senate is Republican now, I doubt it. Kirk's popularity numbers are soft, but he has strong numbers across party lines, so I'm not sure he's the underdog anymore. Portman and Toomey know how to win elections, both of them can make it. The ones I'm most concerned about are Ayotte and Johnson, and Johnson is a very adept campaigner and fundraiser, and Ayotte will probably have good national GOP support (though, like Shaheen, she'll at the whim of the electoral mood).

Though if McCain wins his primary, he could be vulnerable.

And that's not including the seat on the Democratic side which could be vulnerable - Michael Bennet is a very anonymous Senator, and depending on who the Colorado Republicans recruit, he could be in trouble.

Don't forget about Nevada. If Sandoval decides to run, Reid is in huge trouble.

Harry Reid could be in trouble anyways. Sandoval would give him a trouncing, but Joe Heck could give him some trouble too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, the Senate will in all likelihood stay in GOP hands for the next 6 years.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If there's anything the last 8 years has taught us is that we have no f'ing idea what's going to happen.

Did we see 2006 in 2004? No. Did we see 2008 in 2006? Perhaps, but in scale? No. Did we see 2010 in 2008? absolutely not. Did we see last night after 2012? No.

One thing that is very stark, the presidential v mid-term voters divide is clear and becoming entrenched.

[Mehmentum]

Feeling pretty pessimistic this morning, I'll go with yes.

[Ljube]

Feeling pretty optimistic this morning, I'll go with yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We shall see, Lisa Madigan or Robin Kelly or Duckwerth will win and Johnson will lose, but the 54/46 majority is tenious

[Ljube]

We shall see, Lisa Madigan or Robin Kelly or Duckwerth will win and Johnson will lose, but the 54/46 majority is tenious

What if Walker is the nominee? Will he lose then?

[Maxwell]

Duckwerth? who is that?

[King]

I'm going no.. They will keep the House. But they regain the Senate in 2018.

[Bigby]

If the Dems win the Presidency, then there is a chance they don't. If the Republicans win the White House, then it becomes more likely.

[Lincoln Republican]

Yes.

And one of the nicest things about Republican control of the Senate is that it is game over for Dirty Liar Harry Reid.

[You kip if you want to...]

No.

The Dems only have CO and NV which could be in danger. NH, WI, PA, IL are in danger and probably gone if anyone retires. OH and NC could go blue. FL could be close, but I imagine Rubio's developed a good machine and, as we saw last night, the Florida Dems are a joke and their bench is probably terrible. They also have a chance in IA if Grassley retires.

So, basically, the Dems need 4 of NH, WI, PA, IL, OH, NC, FL, IL. Not too shabby.

[AmericanNation]

We shall see, Lisa Madigan or Robin Kelly or Duckwerth will win and Johnson will lose, but the 54/46 majority is tenious

What if Walker is the nominee? Will he lose then?

Johnson is a tough beat.  Besides being more qualified than any dem he'll have a massive warchest ( with personal money to draw)  A dem qualified candidate has to exist, get through a primary, and raise about 25 million dollars.  A presidential year turnout is his ONLY vulnerability   ...dems probably need a really good candidate which they don't have.  Don't embarrass yourself by bringing up Fingold.     

[Free Bird]

It'll probably be a reverse 2012. A lot of hype about how it could fall to Democrats, but when it's all said and done, it remains comfortably Republican.

A lot of the incumbents that are supposedly sitting ducks, like Kirk, Portman, Toomey, Ayotte, and Johnson, are going to be pretty resilient. Plus Democrats have vulnerable seats in Nevada and Colorado, while if circumstances really get bad, the Washington seat could come into play.

[Gustaf]

Obviously very hard to predict. If it's a good election for Democrats, then probably.

Bigger issue is that with this GOP margin now it's hard to see Democrats not losing it again in 2018 even if they retake it in 2 years. Democratic underperformance in swing states coupled with there being more Republican states is making it pretty uphill for them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've never been fond of that mentality, but I'm starting to think that we really need a Republican to take the WH in 2016. That's the only way Democrats can rebuild some strength everywhere else (especially in State governments, where the 2020 redistricting will be decided).

[jaichind]

There is also the factor of Manchin who with the right Dem Prez candidate could pull off a win in 2016, might play it safe and defect to GOP and lock in the win.