Democratic Collapse Among Asians

[SPC]

If you look at the national exit poll, Asians only voted Democratic 50/49, marking the best performance for the Republicans with Asians in 18 years. Given that Whites only moved marginally (60/38 from 59/39), to what do you attribute this 40-point shift?

My preliminary theory might be the reintroduction of cultural issues such as affirmative action into the realm of discussion in California, where much of the Asian population resides.

[Bigby]

Holy Jesus, that is amazing.

Yeah, it seems that Asians feel like affirmative action hurts them. Looks like reverse discrimination doesn't treat all minorities well, huh? They have a right to be upset about it.

[Vega]

This is of the Asians that turned out, though.

[King]

No.

Republicans won 42% of Asians in 2010 and then only 24% in 2012.

Asians that turn out for midterms are generally more conservative than Asians that vote in presidential elections.

Nothing remarkable happened last night. You're chasing a dead end if you think a grand unifying theory of the universe appeared in a midterm election. Do not come up with a theory regarding affirmative action because it is wrong.

2014 will have no effect positive or negative on 2016, just as 2010 did not materialize for the Republicans, or 1994-1996, or 1986 help the Democrats in 1988

[SPC]

Just for fun, I plugged in the demographic breakdown for each ethnic group with the expected turnout level in 2016. Democrats better hope there was not a shift with Asians (and to a lesser extent, Hispanics, although I suspect most of the change in the map is due to the insignificant 4-point shift in whites)

51-48

[Simfan34]

Still, fantastic news.

[King]

There is not a shift in Asians, and especially not in Hispanics.  Democrats received only 60% of Hispanics in 2010 and 64% in 2014. They actually continued to move leftward, if anything.

But again R+7 shift from midterm Asians and D+4 shift from midterm Hispanics are not significant moves in either direction given the weakness and volatility of midterm turnout.

Nothing remarkable happened last night.

[Sbane]

I was thinking about this. There are obvious margin of error issues here. Although since the margin of error is not as high among the white vote since they make up such a large portion of the sample, we can surmise there was movement among the non-white vote. My guess is there was more movement among hispanic and possibly black voters than the exit poll shows, while the movement was not as extreme among asians.

Edit: I was obviously comparing to 2012 and other presidential years. Compared to 2010, the movement among non-whites was not that significant.

[SPQR]

No.

Republicans won 42% of Asians in 2010 and then only 24% in 2012.

Asians that turn out for midterms are generally more conservative than Asians that vote in presidential elections.

Nothing remarkable happened last night. You're chasing a dead end if you think a grand unifying theory of the universe appeared in a midterm election. Do not come up with a theory regarding affirmative action because it is wrong.

2014 will have no effect positive or negative on 2016, just as 2010 did not materialize for the Republicans, or 1994-1996, or 1986 help the Democrats in 1988

Amen.

It's amazing how every 4 years people forget about the dynamics of midterms.

[Sbane]

No.

Republicans won 42% of Asians in 2010 and then only 24% in 2012.

Asians that turn out for midterms are generally more conservative than Asians that vote in presidential elections.

Nothing remarkable happened last night. You're chasing a dead end if you think a grand unifying theory of the universe appeared in a midterm election. Do not come up with a theory regarding affirmative action because it is wrong.

2014 will have no effect positive or negative on 2016, just as 2010 did not materialize for the Republicans, or 1994-1996, or 1986 help the Democrats in 1988

Asians don't like affirmative action because it hurts them the most (not whites) but that doesn't have anything to do with this election.

[Maistre]

Nothing remarkable happened last night.

Yeah! Checkmate Redumblicans!

[King]

Nothing remarkable happened last night.

Yeah! Checkmate Redumblicans!

Why would I checkmate myself?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

This is of the Asians that turned out, though.

WSJ's exit poll showed that the electorate was 75% white this year (2010 was 77%), Blacks increased to 12% from 11%, Hispanics stayed at 8%, and "Other" increase by 1 percentage point to round out the rest. 


Polling showed that Obama's approval ratings also collapsed among Hispanics and Millenials overall from 2012. Maybe Asians are disappointed by Obama and the Democrats as well, ever think about that?

[King]

This is of the Asians that turned out, though.

WSJ's exit poll showed that the electorate was 75% white this year (2010 was 77%), Blacks increased to 12% from 11%, Hispanics stayed at 8%, and "Other" increase by 1 percentage point to round out the rest. 


Polling showed that Obama's approval ratings also collapsed among Hispanics and Millenials overall from 2012. Maybe Asians are disappointed by Obama and the Democrats as well, ever think about that?

Even so, it's just a 7 point shift from 2010 Asian vote to the Republicans. If the Republicans do 7 points better in 2016 than in 2012, that will be a nice start for them but it won't get them close to victory. But still just as troubling they did 4 points worse with Hispanics than they did in 2010.

I don't think these trends are real but even we assume they are, the GOP gaining 7% of a 2% Asian population is easily cancelled out by losing another 4% of a 8-10+% Latino population.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

This is of the Asians that turned out, though.

WSJ's exit poll showed that the electorate was 75% white this year (2010 was 77%), Blacks increased to 12% from 11%, Hispanics stayed at 8%, and "Other" increase by 1 percentage point to round out the rest. 


Polling showed that Obama's approval ratings also collapsed among Hispanics and Millenials overall from 2012. Maybe Asians are disappointed by Obama and the Democrats as well, ever think about that?

Even so, it's just a 7 point shift from 2010 Asian vote to the Republicans. If the Republicans do 7 points better in 2016 than in 2012, that will be a nice start for them but it won't get them close to victory. But still just as troubling they did 4 points worse with Hispanics than they did in 2010.

I don't think these trends are real but even we assume they are, the GOP gaining 7% of a 2% Asian population is easily cancelled out by losing another 4% of a 8-10+% Latino population.

True, true. The Asian population is small and concentrated in a few safe states.

But even with Hispanics, Fox's exit polls (I feel dirty citing Fox, but they're the only ones really going into detail) show Republicans getting 36% of the vote, 46% of the vote from "Other" Americans, women giving 47% of their votes to the GOP, Democrats falling into the low 50s with 18 - 40 year olds, Independents giving the GOP 54%, and moderates only going Dem 53% - 40%.

People are dissatisfied with Obama and the Dems; I wouldn't just ignore it and say "Oh well, in 2016 we'll have higher turnout. This was a one-time thing, so we'll just count on that".

Across the board this was really bad for Democrats. They lost because they became complacent with demographic trends, and you don't want to become complacent again with 2016 coming up.

[King]

But even with Hispanics, Fox's exit polls (I feel dirty citing Fox, but they're the only ones really going into detail) show Republicans getting 36% of the vote

They got 38% of the vote in exit polls in 2010. There is no movement.

You cannot compare what happened in 2012 to 2014. 2010 is the barometer and the barometer showed no movement.

[jaichind]

Still, fantastic news.

[The Ex-Factor]

On the affirmative action issue, most polling suggests that Asians-Americans are strongly in favor of it. I also highly doubt Asian-Americans are singlehandedly switching from Democrat to Republican based on that single issue; that logic doesn't pass the smell test.
http://blog.angryasianman.com/2014/10/most-asian-americans-oppose-affirmative.html

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Schatz still got 70% of the vote.

[Person Man]

Just for fun, I plugged in the demographic breakdown for each ethnic group with the expected turnout level in 2016. Democrats better hope there was not a shift with Asians (and to a lesser extent, Hispanics, although I suspect most of the change in the map is due to the insignificant 4-point shift in whites)

51-48

Trade Iowa for Colorado maybe but pretty much.

[IceSpear]

Are people really making 2016 maps based off a midterm?

And remember everybody, 2010 ensured President Romney. And 1994 ensured President Dole.

[freepcrusher]

in my opinion, polling is "circumstantial" evidence. Better evidence is extrapolation by looking at areas where asians are a solid majority like in parts of NY or CA.

[RINO Tom]

This isn't related to Asians only, but why wouldn't it be logical to assume that as Hispanics and Asians become more and more assimilated into American culture they'll become less loyal to the Democratic Party?  I mean, we have seen this same song and dance with Irish Americans and then Catholics...

[GaussLaw]

This isn't related to Asians only, but why wouldn't it be logical to assume that as Hispanics and Asians become more and more assimilated into American culture they'll become less loyal to the Democratic Party?  I mean, we have seen this same song and dance with Irish Americans and then Catholics...

For whiter Hispanics and Asians, yes (as in, white mother/Asian father or vice versa).  For those of a darker complexion, I would say no given the "minorities = Democrat" is part of their culture even as they assimilate.  Blacks are assimilated, but still vote overwhelmingly Democratic, for instance.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

This isn't related to Asians only, but why wouldn't it be logical to assume that as Hispanics and Asians become more and more assimilated into American culture they'll become less loyal to the Democratic Party?  I mean, we have seen this same song and dance with Irish Americans and then Catholics...

For whiter Hispanics and Asians, yes (as in, white mother/Asian father or vice versa).  For those of a darker complexion, I would say no given the "minorities = Democrat" is part of their culture even as they assimilate.  Blacks are assimilated, but still vote overwhelmingly Democratic, for instance.

Asians and Hispanics don't have nearly the same historical baggage that African Americans do.

One possible answer to RINO Tom's question would be affluence. I don't remember what it was from, but I saw  a graphic depicting the Hispanic vote by income. Hispanics who made less than $30K gave over 2/3 of their vote to the Dems, and those who made $30K-$50K voted 60% Dem. But among all Hispanics making above $50K, they voted only 51% Democratic. It's not a secret that Hispanics have higher poverty levels and lower average HH income. Even though Reagan crafted amnesty in the late-1980s, Hispanics continued to vote heavily Democratic because the Democrats are the party of stronger safety nets.

So when we remember that most Hispanics in the US are actually white Hispanics, that a majority of them are under the age of 14, they are rapidly rising in affluence, and a sizable number are illegal aliens, it's possible that in the future they will be seen as purely American by society and by themselves as purely American.

I'm thinking that as this country grows closer to being majority-minority, we're going to see a radical change in how we view ourselves as a nation. Because patriotism and cultivating a national identity as "Americans" is still a critical reason as to why America has not spiraled into identity politics and tribalism the way some other multi-ethnic countries have destroyed themselves, I think it is possible that in the distant future we could see a revival of assimilation and nationalistic politics. Which party is currently set up so as to promote patriotism? That would be the Republican Party.

It's possible that once the GOP accepts our new demographic reality is past the point of no return, they could nominate a candidate or exploit an opening (economic/military/national crisis, scandal, unpopular Democratic President) to put this new narrative into play. Combine this in the future with more 2nd and 3rd-generation Hispanics, Asians, and "Others" and their rising affluence, it's possible that these groups could start giving more of their votes (like 40%+) to this new Republican Party and give them electoral success.

Of course, I'm just making that up. It's totally possible that the GOP descends into permanent-minority party status as a white nationalist party, but politics is a pendulum and coalitions are never set in stone.

Mitt Romney really was a terrible candidate for Hispanics (self-deportation, Wall Street background, white-based campaign), and Obama had very unique appeal to minority groups and got them to turnout to save him in 2012. Just 20 years prior, Asians gave a commanding 55% of their votes to George HW Bush (the Cold War effect would last until 2000), and 8 years prior Hispanics gave 37% to GWB, helping him carry many sunbelt states in a narrow victory. I think as long as the Republicans don't try to repeat their 2012 strategies and mistakes in the future, they could redeem themselves or at least exploit political openings when Democrats trip up.

It's very difficult to predict how minorities will vote in the future, because they only just became a political force in the past decade. It's unlike anything we've ever witnessed in American history. So the GOP can begin to improve when 1.) they learn their lesson (it's just a matter of when), 2.) how we identify ourselves as Americans in the future, and 3.) how rising affluence affects voting patterns among these groups.